How can a Listed or Group 3 winner cover low quality mares, and yet confound everyone to rise to the pinnacle as a stallion? Moreover, why is there a perception that it happens more often in Australia than in the Northern Hemisphere?
These are big questions to answer and perhaps beyond the scope of a single article. But there are some clues that can help our understanding of how breeding is organised in Australasia compared to say Britain and Ireland, which can lead to these perceptions.
First of all, every major breeding nation has produced successful sires that have started out with less than top racing credentials. Danzig (USA) in America, Fairy King (USA) and more recently Kodiac (GB) – sire of recent Group 1 winning sprinter Hello Youmzain – in Ireland. They are just some that spring to mind.
Currently in Australasia, we are witnessing Not A Single Doubt, a Listed winner who was also Group 3 placed, and Group 3 scorer I Am Invincible take on and out-perform stallions with far better racing credentials.
Proving his worth
For the record, Not A Single Doubt, who did run some good races in defeat, earned access to better mares by proving he could add value to all mares he covered.
His career strike rate stands at 7.7% stakes winners to runners, but the fact is most of his mares where from the lower end of the class spectrum, producing only 3.9% stakes winners when visiting other sires. Even so, the Arrowfield stallion improved that mark to 6.8%.
For the past few seasons, his runners have been from far better mares and the mare quality mark has risen to 6.9%. But in typical fashion, he’s moved that number up 14.4%.
Not A Single Doubt | Standing at Arrowfield Stud
It’s been even harder for I Am Invincible, whose typical mare so far produces 3.4% stakes winners, a number he’s improved to 8.3%. And we can expect a bigger improvement as his better-bred runners start to appear.
But don’t go away with the impression that top-class form counts for less in a stallion.
Among sires that retired since 1995 in Australia and New Zealand with 100-plus runners, 52% hadn’t won a Group 1 race. The Group 1 winning sires produced 23,010 metropolitan winners in the period, which amounts to 23% of runners, and 4,186 black type winners, or 4.12% of runners. By contrast, the non-G1 winners sired 17% metro winners and 2.23% stakes winners.
I Am Invincible | Standing at Yarraman Park Stud
But of course it’s not quite as simple as that. Opportunity plays a big part.
By my calculations, the average book quality of the Group 1 winners was about 23% better than the non-Group 1 winners. But this does not account for all of the 46% difference (i.e. the difference between 2.23% and 4.12% highlighted above) in stakes winner output, proving that racing ability in a stallion remains of paramount importance.
It’s a similar story in Britain and Ireland, where Group 1 winning sires produce on average 5.3% stakes winners to runners, compared to the 2.7% by the remainder. In America, the vast majority of runners come from non-Group 1 winning sires, and they produce 4.3% of stakes winners, compared to 5.5% by Group 1 winning sires.
Differences in broodmare populations
It is perhaps due to the sheer size and structure of the broodmare population that stallions of lesser racing ability get more opportunities in Australia. To satisfy demand for racehorses, breeders are currently covering about 20,000 mares each year in Australia. Contrast this to Britain and Ireland, where there are 14,000 flat mares covered.
It’s clear that Australia needs more stallions: in 2018, 210 stallions covered 20 or more mares in Australia, compared to 128 in Britain and Ireland. So, is it any wonder that Australia has to dig deeper into its male racing population for stallion prospects?
In 2018, 210 stallions covered 20 or more mares in Australia
It’s also true to say that the makeup of Australia’s broodmare population is different to that in Britain and Ireland. More mares ultimately means more poorer mares. Just imagine what class of racehorse would be employed as stallions if Britain and Ireland had to cope with another 6,000 bad mares. Of course, this will never happen due to poor prize-money levels.
Another significant difference is that the big owner-breeders like Godolphin, Coolmore, Shadwell and Juddmonte base most of their mares in Britain and Ireland, so there is a higher concentration of quality mares there. In 2018, 1,606 mares with Group form were covered in Australia. That’s 8.5% of the total, compared to 1,508 mares or 11% in Britain and Ireland.
Although it seems that nations with large racing populations like Australia and North America tend to offer more stud opportunities for colts that have not quite made it to the top, don’t expect to find another I Am Invincible anytime soon.
