Comparing the Class of 2006

In the first part of a series looking at the particular crops of stallions and how they have measured up against one another through their breeding career, we take a look at the entry class of 2006, which produced future triple Australian Champion Snitzel and an international superstar in Dubawi (Ire).

Snitzel wasn't always top of this class, and indeed he finished second to Widden's Stratum in both the first and second season of his progeny on the track. Dubawi has gone onto sire 179 stakes winners globally, but an Australian market focussed on precocity saw solid, but not spectacular, results at the yearling sales for his three Australian crops.

The fortunes of any stallion rise and fall across a career and we have gone back to the very start, looking at metrics such as initial stallion prices, book size, yearlings sales results and progeny performance to chart the success or otherwise of the class of 2006.

For the sake of this exercise, we have only considered stallions who stood their first seasons in Australia in 2006 and only their Australian-bred foals. Data has been sourced from Arion and the Australian Studbook.

Stallion fees set

The first metric a stallion is ever judged by is his service fee. Significant research is taken by studs in order to determine the desirability and value of their new stallions in the market, and they come up with a figure to attract the best possible quality and quantity of mares.

There were five separate stallions set at a price of $33,000 (inc GST) in 2016, Snitzel and Starcraft (NZ) at Arrowfield, Dubawi at Darley, Oratorio (Ire) at Coolmore and God's Own at Eliza Park.

Stratum's debut price at Widden was set at $30,250 (inc GST), while there was then a big drop back to the likes of Barely A Moment and Undoubtedly, who both stood for $16,500 (inc GST) in that first season.

Big books

The popularity of a first season stallions is at its most basic level, judged by the amount of mares a stallion covers. This is influenced by two key market factors, desirability and price, but can also be impacted by the strategy a stud wishes to follow with a new stallion, and whether they think having big crops will be beneficial in the long term.

Stratum had the biggest book of the first season stallions in 2006, with 188 covers, which resulted in a first crop of 150 foals. Hidden Dragon, standing at Lyndhurst Stud Farm in Queensland, had a book of 158 for 134 foals, while Starcraft's debut year saw him cover 151 mares for 111 foals.

Snippetson, then standing at Widden, served 150 mares, resulting 112 foals, with big numbers also from Bradbury's Luck (146), Jet Spur (143) and God's Own (142). Ten first season stallions in all services more than 130 mares including Snitzel, who had 131.

The yearling market

The first serious test of the desirability of a stallion's progeny comes when his first crop hit the yearling sales. When you consider that this is around two and half years after he first begins his stud career, it is a long period of uncertainty for those who have invested in a first season stallion.

Weanling sales may give some indication of future prosperity, but it is the scale of yearling sales which truly test where the market rates a stallion. Of course, there are significant variables on that, such as how many of that crop are retained by owners.

At the 2009 yearling sales, it was Starcraft's progeny which fared best on average, with 69 sold at an average of $87,826, around 2.66 his service fee in that first season. Two fillies went for $450,000 and $400,000 at the Easter Sale.

With the biggest crop, it was hardly surprising that Stratum had the most yearlings sell, 91, at the greatest aggregate of nearly $7 million, with a top-price of $425,000. His yearlings averaged $76,139, a ratio of 2.5 times that of his first-season service fee.

Snitzel had 49 of his first crop sell through the yearling sales at an average of $72,007, again a healthy upswing on his $33,000 fee, while Oratorio was fourth on the averages with 45 sold for an average of $69,411, just ahead of God's Own, who averaged $68,243 across his 41 sales. Dubawi averaged $49,271 across 37 sales.

In terms of numbers of yearlings sold, Jet Spur, off his $11,000 fee, had 68 sell at a very good average of $41,000, Hidden Dragon had 54 sell for an average of $18,869 and Bradbury's Luck had 53 sell at an average of $33,056.

Fifth crop numbers

A stallion's fifth crop provides an interesting measuring point for the enduring popularity of a stallion. It comes after his first crop have gone through the sales and just as they hit the track.

In the case of this class, Hidden Dragon was still attracting big numbers with a book of 196 in 2010. Domesday's book nearly doubled from 83 in his first year to 163 in his fifth season at Darley, while Snitzel was third most popular on 152. Starcraft had his second biggest book ever at 147.

The strategy with Stratum had changed, with a significant increase in price to $60,500 (inc GST), and his book dropped back to 119 that season. He was one of four stallions from that class whose price had increased when compared from that first season, with the others Starcraft ($38,500), Hidden Dragon ($13,200) and Jet Spur ($19,250)

With his career taking off in the Northern Hemisphere, Dubawi was no longer shuttling to Australia at that point.

First season on the track

A stallion's progeny's first season is where the rubber really hits the road. Everything up to this point is pure speculation, but it is in that first season where reputation can be won or lost very easily.

Stratum was to prove the Champion First Season Sire in 2009/10 thanks largely to the win of his first season filly Crystal Lily in the G1 Golden Slipper. She was one of two stakes winners for the Widden stallion and made up $2.3 million of the $3.06 million his progeny won that year. All in all, he had 13 winners.

Snitzel had 10 winners in total, including his first stakes winner Chance Bye, who won the G2 Silver Slipper S., with his progeny winning $1.27 million in prizemoney.

Yarraman Park's Foreplay was third with Decision Time, one of his three first crop winners, winning $952,000 of the $1.057 million his progeny collected.

Hidden Dragon (fourth) and Jet Spur (sixth) had 11 and 12 individual winners respectively in what was a strong start, while Pressday gave Domesday (fifth) a huge push along by giving his sire a Group 1 from his first crop.

Starcraft also got a Group 1 winner from his first crop thanks to Star Witness' win in the Blue Diamond S. He was one of six first-crop winners for the then Arrowfield stallion.

Dubawi had three 2-year-old winners from his first Australian crop, as did God's Own.

Second-season results

Stratum's brilliant results continued with two crops to the track the following year. But rather than rely on one good horse, the depth of his progeny came to the fore. He had an impressive 61 winners, including five individual stakes winners, and his progeny earned over $3.1 million.

Snitzel's progeny had made significant progress and he had 36 winners in 2010/11, earning $2.6 million, with three individual stakes winners to finish second overall.

The winners kept coming for Jet Spur, 41 in all that season, including his first stakes winner, Belle D'Amour.

Starcraft had four stakes winners and 21 overall that season, including his early banner horse Star Witness, who collected the G1 Coolmore Stud S., while Oratorio's progeny began to make an impression with two stakes winners that season and 23 winners overall.

Snippetson's progeny had also made substantial progress, with the second-most winners of any second season stallion with 48.

Ongoing market support

The yearling market continues to be an important testing ground for the popularity of a horse's progeny and a good temperature test is often how they are faring in their fifth year at the sales. By that time, they will have two crops on the track and the market will have a very good hold on their ongoing value.

It is at this point where we see the changing of the guard, with Snitzel asserting his dominance in the 2013 yearling sales season.

The future Arrowfield Champion had 68 yearlings sell that year at an average of over $150,000 and an aggregate over $10.2 million. That included his first million-dollar colt, the future Group 1 winner Wandjina. He was firmly one of the big boys now.

Stratum was still very popular, understandable given his early success, and his 46 yearlings sold in 2013 averaged $110,000, while Starcraft was the other one still faring well, with 62 yearlings sold at an average of just over $70,000.

Many of the other stallions had fallen away, as the hype switched to younger and newer offerings.

As it stands in 2019

Looking at overall career statistics is not always the most accurate guide to a stallion's success, especially when it comes to assessing those who leave us early.

Stratum died aged 14 in 2016, ending the rivalry with Snitzel, who has since gone on to become Champion Australian Sire in three straight seasons.

Snitzel is the undisputed champ of that crop, however, with his current record in Australia seeing him produce 631 winners and 84 stakes winners. His progeny have won an amazing $116.6 million. Among that collection are 13 individual Group 1 winners and he is far from finished with adding to that. His ongoing legacy seems assured with 19 of his sons now at stud in Australia in 2019.

As it stands, Stratum has sired 516 winners, including 42 stakes winners and seven Group 1 winners and his progeny have earned a combined amount just short of $71 million. His small final crop has just turned two.

Starcraft continues his career at Rosemont and his career has been very respectable. His Australian progeny have won $20.2 million in prizemoney, with 252 winners among them, including 11 stakes winners. Star Witness and We Can Say It Now are his Group 1 winners and both are from his first crop.

Dubawi made a huge impact with his progeny worldwide. From his three Australian crops he had a staggering six Group 1 winners amongst his 22 stakes winners, including Secret Admirer, Tiger Tees and Shamal Wind.

Oratorio ended up serving seven seasons in Australia before heading off to South Africa and he has had 235 winners in Australia in total, including six stakes winners. They include the Group 1 winners Manawanui and Mourinho.

God's Own was the one big name from that class of 2006 whose career didn't fully blossom. The son of Redoute's Choice ended up with a respectable 243 winners and eight stakes winners in total. He served his last season in 2016 before being retired.

Domesday, now at Aquis Farm, continues to produce top-line horses, with five Group 1 winners, 19 stakes winners and 312 winners in total, while Snippetson, now in WA, has produced 439 winners including 13 at stakes level.

At the more value end of the market, Jet Spur and Hidden Dragon continue to roll out the winners. Jet Spur, now at Corella Stud in his 14th season, has 347 winners in total, including eight stakes winners, while Hidden Dragon, still at Lyndhurst Stud Farm, has produced 371 winners and eight stakes winners.

Those last four names mentioned are part of a group of nine stallions that debuted in 2006 and are still active. Only one of them, Snitzel ($220,000 inc GST), stands at a fee of more than $10,000.