When the Australasian yearling sales season bursts into life at the Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale next month, much of the attention will be lavished on the million dollar colts and fillies which will go through the ring.
But while the top end of the market is where the glitz and glamour is, there is substantial gold to be found shopping at the other end of the market. In the past 10 editions of the iconic Gold Coast sale, there have been 11 future Group 1 winners purchased for $100,000 or less.
Looking through that list, which makes up just under a quarter of all the Group 1 graduates from the January sale across that period, you see names such as Global Glamour (Star Witness), purchased for $65,000 by James Bester in 2015, The Mission (Choisir), picked up by Paul Perry for $32,500 in 2016, and Single Gaze (Not A Single Doubt), who was a $70,000 buy in 2014.
Other names to feature on the list include international Group 1 winners Harry's Son (Haradasun), Willow Magic (Dubawi {Ire}) and Fighting Warrior (Magic Albert) as well as Australian top-flight winners Almalad (Al Maher), Lucky Hussler (Hussonet {USA}), Driefontein (Fastnet Rock), Pear Tart (Dehere {USA}) and Boban (Bernardini {USA}).
When you expand that list out to include Group winners, the stats show that there have been an impressive 28 graduates which cost $100,000 or less to have won Group races since the overall sale average surpassed the $100,000 mark in 2013.
| Overall | 3262 | 2603 | 1535 | 107 |
| $100,000 or less | N/A | 1145 | 540 | 25 |
Table: Yearlings sold through Magic Millions Yearling Sale 2015-2018
In order to get a clearer picture of the relative future performance of Magic Millions Gold Coast Sale graduates, we took a deeper dive into the data from the 2016, 2017 and 2018 sales.
We haven't looked at relative performance from the 2019 sale as those horses are just two and we have seen only 87 of the 1157 catalogued hit the track.
What our analysis revealed is the performance of those horses in that cheaper price bracket measures up pretty well to results from the rest of the sale.
Alligator puts bite into 2018 graduates
There is yet to be a Group 1 winner from the sub-$100,000 price bracket from the 2018 Magic Millions Sale, but Alligator Blood (All Too Hard), a $55,000 purchase, went very close in the Caulfield Guineas this year. He and Sherwood Forest (Fastnet Rock) are the two Group winners from that price bracket, while there have been an additional four black-type winners and four black-type placegetters.
Alligator Blood, went very close in the Caulfield Guineas to be the first Group 1 winner under $100,000
The percentage of stakes winners to horses sold (365) for that price range in 2018 is at 1.64 per cent, which is not too far off the overall sale record of 1.81 per cent, bearing in mind these horses are only three.
The overall winners-to-horses-sold metric also compares fairly well, with 84 winners to date from the 365 sold at $100,000 or less. That's a respectable 23 per cent, when compared with the overall sale success rate of 26.26 per cent.
"The overall winners-to-horses-sold metric also compares fairly well, with 84 winners to date from the 365 sold at $100,000 or less." - Bren O'Brien
When looking at these stats, it's key to remember that the average price for a yearling in that sub-$100,000 price bracket in 2018 was $57,606, with a median of $60,000, compared to the overall sales average of $189,137 and a median of $140,000.
Success comparable at the bottom of market
The graduates from the 2017 sale are now four and as such, have had a much longer time period to establish their credentials. Of the 1086 horses offered through the sale, 878 have had starts and 587 of them have won.
In that year, around 36 per cent of the catalogue, or 392 horses, sold for $100,000 or less.
| Absolute Flirt | $100,000 | 2018 |
| Alligator Blood | $55,000 | 2018 |
| Amangiri | $80,000 | 2017 |
| Cellargirl | $90,000 | 2016 |
| Champ Elect | $95,000 | 2016 |
| Ef Troop | $70,000 | 2017 |
| Everyday Lady | $100,000 | 2016 |
| Infamous Fox | $25,000 | 2016 |
| Jonker | $45,000 | 2017 |
| Kobayashi | $60,000 | 2016 |
| Krone | $60,000 | 2017 |
| Mirette | $75,000 | 2017 |
| Missile Mantra | $30,000 | 2018 |
| Ready To Prophet | $40,000 | 2017 |
| Roy Had Enough | $95,000 | 2016 |
| Roy's Riviera | $70,000 | 2016 |
| Saint Patricks Day | $55,000 | 2016 |
| San Fermin | $100,000 | 2016 |
| Sherwood Forest | $100,000 | 2018 |
| Swing Note | $60,000 | 2016 |
| The Mission | $32,500 | 2016 |
| The Mitigator | $75,000 | 2016 |
| The Oddyssey | $30,000 | 2018 |
| Trojan Harbour | $50,000 | 2016 |
| Unite and Conquer | $80,000 | 2018 |
Table: Recent stakes winners for less than $100,000 from the Magic Millions Yearling Sales
There have been 210 of those horses who have since gone on to win races, or around 53.57 per cent, while there have been 17 of them who have placed or won at stakes level, including the Group winners Amangiri (All Too Hard) and Mirette (Unecumbered).
That 53.27 per cent win strike rate is quite comparable to the overall graduate success percentage of 54.05 per cent. In that year, the average overall price for the whole sale was $167,186, while the sub-$100,000 bracket average was $56,694.
Winners strike rate better from cheaper 2016 graduates
If we step back to 2016, the strike-rate for winners in that cheaper price bracket is actually higher than the overall sale record. There have been 246 winners from the 388 yearlings which cost $100,000 or less, which is 63.4 per cent, while the winners-to-total-catalogue rate for that year is 61.6 per cent.
"The winners-to-total-catalogue rate for that year [2016] is 61.6 per cent" - Bren O'Brien
That year proved great buying in terms of securing future stakes winners, with 13 purchased for $100,000 or less in all, including The Mission. There have been an additional 10 stakes placed horses, building to an impressive 6 per cent of stakes performed horses from those in the cheaper price bracket.
The average price for those yearlings was $54,360 that year, nearly a third of the overall average of $153,248.
The remarkable thing about a horse like The Mission selling for just $32,500 as a yearling is not only did he go and become a Group 1 winner, but he has now gone on to a successful stud career, standing at Aquis Farm in Queensland for $13,200 (inc GST) and serving over 100 mares in his first year.
A Millions 'cheapie', the late Unencumbered
It was a similar story for another Millions 'cheapie' in Unencumbered (Testa Rossa). He cost trainer Bjorn Baker $70,000 in 2013 and went and won his owners $1.9 million before heading to stud. Starting out at a service fee of $13,200, he had four big crops before his untimely death in 2018.
Global Glamour cost $65,000, won $1.56 million and was then sold for $1.55 million as a broodmare prospect, while Single Gaze cost $70,000, won $2.36 million on the track and then was sold to Northern Farm for a reported $1.6 million as a broodmare.
These are the poster boys and girls for the cheaper horses and their amazing success should certainly make potential buyers at next month's Magic Millions Yearling Sale think twice before focussing only towards the top end of the market.
