Some people can remember a moment when their life took an unexpected twist and changed forever.

Rob Crabtree has his – the point where racing grabbed him out of nowhere, sparking a branching out from the world of selling cars towards a different kind of horsepower.

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Forty years later, he’s among the most canny breeders in Australia, sending out yearlings from his expansive Dorrington Farm property in the heart of Victorian horse country, near Nagambie.

Self-made – in cars and horses - the septuagenarian owns some forthright and fascinating views on breeding. He likes one line that would turn the game’s accepted wisdom completely on its head: stallions are irrelevant.

He’s also not entirely fussed about winning Group 1s. That’s possibly just as well, since the horses he’s bred and/or owned have won three of them, amid a stack of around 40 placings that might drive a different mind mad.

For the man who helped start the chain that hatched Black Caviar (Bel Esprit) who bred Magnus (Flying Spur), and who has a priceless filly on the ground by I Am Invincible out of his Blue Diamond winner Catchy (Fastnet Rock), where it all started can be easily traced.

Join In The Chorus

In 1980, Crabtree, a devout Collingwood fan, attended a North Melbourne Football Club lunch, hoping for car business opportunities. His table of strangers included future media baron Kerry Stokes, and breeding baron (and North Melbourne vice-president) Monty Millson.

“Monty said, ‘I’m a breeder, and I’ve got a yearling by this stallion of mine called Plush. Would you all like to part own her?’” Crabtree recalls.

“I’d never ever been to a racetrack before. But everyone at the table seemed like a good bunch of blokes, so I said ‘Why not?’”

Crabtree may have had trouble digesting the filly’s eventual name - Join In The Chorus (Demerit), the first line of the North Melbourne team song - but it was an auspicious introduction. At her first start, the filly was second in a stakes race at Flemington.

“I thought, ‘This is easy!’ he says with a laugh, before adding: “We’re lucky in racing, because it’s all documented. You can go back to these crossings in the road where we changed directions. That’s why horses like Black Caviar and Winx are so important. They bring people in, create those moments, and create the interest from which people springboard into the industry.”

Catching the bug, Crabtree retained his interest in Join In The Chorus post-racing. And though that was less than successful, he became entranced. Then he became a breeder, buying three mares, kept on his cattle farm near Macedon, north of Melbourne (which he’d later sell to become Eliza Park Stud).

“I think it’s just because I’m stubborn. I just demanded of myself that I’d see it through,” he says of a venture, or adventure, that raised some eyebrows. “I think people looked on in wonder, which is what you often do when you look in the shaving mirror, isn’t it?

“I just fell in love with the animal. They’re a wonderful, kind, lovely animal; worth respecting and loving.”

While Crabtree landed few knockout blows in his initial years in breeding, things changed in 1990 when he bought the West Australian mare Rich Haul (Haulpak), in foal to Zeditave. The offspring was The Heavyweight, a black type winner but one typical of the Crabtree barn, in that his eight wins were shaded by 25 placings.

The same Zeditave-Rich Haul mating also produced Zedrich, who won Melbourne Listed races in his first two starts, and came sixth in the 1995 Golden Slipper.

While that result was bittersweet, around the same time Crabtree welcomed a filly out of a Vain mare named Song Of Norway, who he’d bought in foal to Snippets. He retained a quarter share with Eliza Park Stud. She was named Scandinavia, and she’d play a fundamental role in Australian breeding.

“She was typical of a lot of my horses in that she had four Group 1 placings,” Crabtree says. One was a narrow third in the 1998 Newmarket at Flemington to General Nediym, handled by the young Peter Moody.

When Scandinavia’s racing career ended a year later, a deal was struck in which Crabtree would keep her first and third foals, and Eliza Park’s Lee Fleming the rest.

Scandinavia’s third foal was the outstanding Moody-trained sprinter Magnus, who finally brought him a Group 1 in The Galaxy of 2007. With Crabtree retaining a half share, Magnus has of course become an enduringly successful stallion standing at Eliza Park, and as it is now, Sun Stud. He recently sired his 40th stakes winner in Kemalpasa, on VRC Derby Day.

Scandinavia’s second foal resulted from a mating with Eliza’s New Zealand import Desert Sun. Bought as a yearling by Crabtree’s neighbour Ric Jamieson, she was called Helsinge. Unraced, she went to Bel Esprit. The result was of course the Moody-trained superstar, Black Caviar.

Crabtree acquired full ownership of Scandinavia when Fleming sold out of Eliza. Among others, he bred Magnus’ stakes winning full sister Arctic Flight, and Scandiva (Fastnet Rock) – who won at Group 2 and was – again - Group 1 placed in Randwick’s Sires' Produce S.

“Scandinavia’s a magnificent mare - the epitome of a blue hen,” says Crabtree of the now 25-year-old chestnut who’s retired on his farm.

Group 1 victories remained elusive for Crabtree until, never raining but pouring, the Team Hayes-trained Catchy won the 2017 Blue Diamond, 40 minutes before stablemate Sheidel (Holy Roman Emperor {Ire}) took the Oakleigh Plate.

“It was pretty incredible,” Crabtree recalls. “I could’ve cheerfully just celebrated the Blue Diamond, and then the second one came along. It was surreal.”

That said, actually winning Group 1s doesn’t hold primacy in the Crabtree philosophy.

“If you’re horses are competitive in Group 1 races, that’s enough,” he says. “I wasn’t breeding at the top, and probably I’m still a level below that, but it’s nice to know I’ve bred good quality animals. I think constant black type, rather than Group 1 wins, is the main litmus test.”

'Quite predictable'

The key to that is families, with the emphasis heavily on maternal lines.

“I think stallions are the most irrelevant thing I’ve seen in breeding,” he declares. “It’s all about the female – the female side of the stallion, and the broodmare.

“We all go to good stallions. The differential is the broodmare side of both the stallion and the mare. You can put a good mare to a half-decent sire, as long as that sire’s female side is consistent right through recent generations.”

Despite what you hear, breeding is “quite predictable”, says Crabtree. He once bought a stakes winning Perth mare called Lady Knockout (Serheed {USA}), put her to Magnus to produce the stakes winning Missy Cummings, and put that mare to Zoustar to create the multiple stakes winning Mizzy, third home in this year’s inaugural Golden Eagle.

“I think that’s good breeding – taking a stakes winning mare and making her progeny stakes winning horses. That’s hard to do,” says Crabtree, a devotee of mating “like with like”, along the sprinter/middle distance/stayer lines.

“We all have bad luck stories and good luck stories. That’s all great, but breeding’s really quite a predictable thing, and if you can build generations of black type horses out of families that perhaps weren’t even there in the beginning, that’s the epitome of successful breeding.

“There’s no industry in the world more steeped in lessons that are out there if you look for them. Everything’s so well documented, through stud books, and racetrack performances. It’s all there. You just have to look.

“You don’t just live in hope. You live in expectation. Out of my 20-something yearlings this year, I absolutely know that three to five of them will be black type horses. I just don’t know which ones yet.”

Crabtree finally sold out of the car business six years ago, and has subsequently boosted his foal output from 10-12 in the past couple of years to the 28 he’ll offer in the new year. His Magic Millions yearlings will be prepared by astute Hunter Valley horseman Mike Fleming and sold through the Bhima Thoroughbreds draft.

With Catchy now in foal to Zoustar, and Sheidel in foal to Trapeze Artist, Crabtree appears set to continue his knack of breeding highly attractive horses.

“My recipe for commerciality has been roughly to be the average of the Melbourne Premier sale, off a quite low service fee,” he says.

“I think that’s the key to breeding – find your level and be successful at that level.”

Success from a stallion's first 2-year-olds before Christmas might not be career defining, but it can certainly help when it comes to selling their second crop at the early yearling sales such as the Magic Millions Gold Coast Sale in January.

In 2018, at least seven stallions with their first progeny on the track had winners across Australia and New Zealand by Christmas, but this year it has been much tougher going for the 'freshman' crew.

As it stands, only Pride Of Dubai (two winners including a stakes winner and two stakes placed from seven runners) and Spill The Beans (one from nine) have had winners to date in Australia.

Coolmore's Pride Of Dubai, who had 69 yearlings sell across all sales last year at an average of $108,732, is the only one to be represented in the 2020 Magic Millions catalogue, with 11 yearlings on offer from his second crop.

Overall, 99 of the 1056 lots catalogued across Books 1 and 2, or about 9.4 per cent, are by sires with their second crops available, with the likes of Vancouver (21), No Nay Never (USA) (17) and Real Impact (Jpn) (12) leading the way in terms of numbers.

Vancouver's first crop dominated the yearling sales in 2019 with 70 sold across all sales at an aggregate of $12.66 million, nearly 21 per cent of the total spent on first season yearlings, and an average price of $180,886.

While he is yet to have a winner, he has two stakes placegetters and will likely get the winners on the board as his top quality 2-year-olds hit the track in the coming months.

Hot third season sire Deep Field had a strong 2019 Gold Coast Sale, having had two winners in the pre-Christmas period from five runners. Buyers responded by buying 24 of his second crop on the Gold Coast at an average of $202,500, while Brazen Beau, who also had a couple of pre-Christmas winners, averaged $220,000 across his 10 sales and Rubick, who had one early winner, averaged $202,000.

Lyndhurst Stud Farm's Better Than Ready made a sensational start to his stallion career with six winners pre-Christmas, yet buyers on the Gold Coast were left with none of his progeny in Book 1 and just three in the catalogue as a whole. Off a $9900 initial service fee, those three lots averaged over $100,000.

Comparing year to year

As a measure of comparison, as of December 21 last year, first season sires had 13 combined winners across Australia, compared to two at the same point this year.

Many of this season's crop have had low numbers of early runners to date, with the likes of Exosphere, No Nay Never, Scissor Kick, Bull Point and Trust In A Gust just having one runner each so far.

Former Arrowfield stallion Real Impact, who had 55 of his first crop yearlings sell and is flying with 15 juvenile winners in Japan, has had two get to the track so far. Darley's Kermadec (NZ) and Newgate's Super One, who had 53 and 68 yearlings respectively go through the sales, have also had two runners. Vinery's Press Statement, who had 52 sell, hasn't had significant numbers at the track either, however has had some exciting trial performers to keep a close eye on.

No Nay Never is one of the hottest juvenile sires in Europe, with his first crop including Group 1 winner Ten Sovereigns (Ire), and it can be expected his first crop of 52 live foals will be hitting the tracks soon.

Woodside Park's Rich Enuff, Widden's Outreach and Vinery's Headwater are represented by drafts of five, five and six respectively on the Gold Coast.

The winners may flow in the next couple of weeks ahead of the Gold Coast sale, with plenty of 2-year-old racing on offer and that presents an opportunity for these stallions to get some momentum headed into the sales season.

That could prove important in such a strong stallion market, with large quantities and excellent quality of first crop yearlings on offer from a collection of 29 stallions headed by names such as Capitalist, American Pharaoh (USA), Shalaa (Ire), Astern, Flying Artie, Maurice (Jpn) etc.

In total there are 303 lots by first season sires across Books 1 and 2, representing 28.7 per cent or over three times the numbers of the second season sires.

A dramatic post-script to Wednesday's delayed Listed Spirit Of Boom Phelan Ready S. at Doomben saw three jockeys dislodged past the post after Rathlin (Fastnet Rock) had franked his credentials for the upcoming The Star Magic Millions 2YO Classic with a soft win.

The Ciaron Maher and David Eustace trained Rathlin had just completed a 3l win when he shied going over the crossing, dislodging Luke Currie. Then in a chain reaction, Jim Byrne, who rode the second-placed Kavak (Deep Field), also fell as Rathlin veered out, and then Larry Cassidy, on War Memorial (Fastnet Rock), who finished third, followed suit.

That left Count The Coin (Spirit Of Boom), who finished fourth and his jockey Luke Tarrant as the only ones to return to scale.

While the three horses were captured without any harm and Currie escaped injury, unfortunately veteran hoop Byrne looks to have suffered a serious leg injury and he has been transported to hospital, while Cassidy was sidelined for the remainder of a day with a sore hand.

The incident cast a bit of a pall over an intriguing race which had already been rescheduled from last Friday when a freak storm hit Doomben forcing two stakes races to be transferred.

Rathlin, having his third start, couldn't have been more impressive as he swept past his rivals down the straight after Currie had taken a sit off the early leaders Kavak and Count The Coin.

He loomed large at the furlong mark and while Kavak kicked back briefly, Currie let the favourite down and he strode away to win with authority over the 1110 metres.

He subsequently moved into $11 from $15 in betting for the $2 million Magic Millions 2YO Classic on January 11, which is headed by another Aquis Farm horse in Farnan (Not A Single Doubt).

Rathlin was bred by Neil Werrett and purchased for $725,000 by Aquis Farm from the Kitchwin Hills draft at the 2019 Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale.

He boasts an imposing pedigree, being out of stakes-placed mare Wiener (More Than Ready {USA}), the half-sister to three-time Champion Australian sire Snitzel as well as Hinchinbrook.

He is the first stakes winner from Wiener, who has produced two previous stakes placed horses in Redoutable Heart (Redoute's Choice) and Za Zi Ba (All Too Hard). She also has a yearling filly by I Am Invincible and a foal colt by Redoute's Choice.

Rathlin becomes stakes winner number 154 for Coolmore's Fastnet Rock.

Away Game follows suit in Calaway Gal

Maher, Eustace and Currie doubled up the stakes success with Away Game (Snitzel) proving too strong for her rivals in the Listed Boomer Bloodstock Calaway Gal S.

The filly will also head to the Magic Millions 2YO Classic, having sat outside the early pace and then kicked clear to notch her first win at her second start.

She beat debutante Smart 'n' Sexy (Smart Missile) by 2.25l, with the same margin further back to Miss Lot Won (Sidereus) in third.

Stable representative Annabel Neasham said credit for picking the filly out for $425,000 at the Magic Millions Sale last January needs to go to former Maher Racing employee Hannah Mathieson, who now runs pinhooking and racing syndicate Oakmont Horse Club.

"That's our seventh individual 2-year-old winner this season. Full credit to Hannah Mathieson, who picked out and purchased the horse," Neasham said.

The Snitzel filly was bred by Mill Park Stud and is out of stakes placed Elusive Wonder (Elusive Quality {USA}) and she is the second stakes winner in the family, joining her full sister Modern Wonder. Elusive Wonder is a half-sister to Listed winner Tantra (Royal Academy {USA}) and closely related to another stakes winner in Oak Park (More Than Ready {USA}).

Elusive Wonder's yearling filly by Not A Single Doubt will be offered by Segenhoe Stud as Lot 270 at next month's Magic Millions Gold Coast Sale, while the mare also has a filly foal by Merchant Navy who she is back in foal to.