Carif's chequered path to Tancred

Carif's path to this race was determined immediately after his excellent second in the G3 Queen Elizabeth S. at Flemington in the spring, but his path to a possible Group 1 victory has been in the works since Ramage purchased his sire, So You Think, for NZ$110,000 at Karaka in 2008 and his dam Norzita (NZ) (Thorn Park) at the same sale for NZ$200,000 three years later.

Ramage, as the manager of the Australian breeding and racing interests of the now late Dato Tan Chin Nam, in partnership with Tunku Ahmed Yahaya, picked up two out and out champions, who were guided by the legendary Bart Cummings late in his training career.

"There's a long history of the black and white checks with this horse because So You Think and his dam Norzita were both purchased by the late Dato and Tunku, who is still with us. Both ended up winning multiple Group 1s and 12-13 years after the acquisition, they have got Carif heading into this," Ramage told TDN AusNZ.

The iconic black and white check with yellow sleeves have won many of Australia's greatest races, including four Melbourne Cups and three Cox Plates, but have never saluted in the Tancred, with Saintly's (Sky Chase {NZ}) third behind fellow star 3-year-old Octagonal (NZ) (Zabeel) in an epic 1996 edition, the closest they have come.

But Ramage and Carif's trainers Peter and Paul Snowden believed this was a chance to write their piece of history, with a horse who gets better with every campaign.

"He's been set for it specifically, with a long-range plan from after Melbourne, so it’s not an afterthought," Ramage said.

"Some of the better rated horses, who are in competition against us, it’s possibly an afterthought for them, because they thought they better run in case there is nothing left to run in. I thought maybe they would target the Queen Elizabeth, but I can understand their connections thinking there might not be a Queen Elizabeth in the current environment.

"The field has come up a bit stronger than I imagined six days ago, but he's been set to take on this race from the get-go. We will see how he lives up to it."

A history of upsets

Carif, a winner of two of 19 starts, is a $21 outsider in a race which has been known to produce an upset result. Nineteen years ago, Curata Storm (Dieu D'or) produced a $101 blowout, while since then there have been long-priced winners in Freemason (Grand Lodge {USA}) at $31 in 2003, Fiumicino (NZ) (Zabeel {NZ}) at $31 in 2009 and Cedarberg (Helenus) at $26 in 2010.

Ramage said while Carif doesn't profile as a Group 1 winner on previous form, he does share one characteristic with his famous sire, as a horse that keeps on developing.

"He's like his father, he continued to improve the older he got. When he got to Europe, So You Think was set an extraordinary task as a racehorse and in a 12-month period ran in the Breeders' Cup, the Arc, Royal Ascot and the Dubai World Cup in the one year. He came through all that and was able to win a Group 1 at Royal Ascot at his final start, in a Prince Of Wales which is an iconic race," Ramage said.

"He thrived on the work and the racing and Carif does the same thing.

"The Snowdens will tell you that he surprises them how he keeps improving, on and on. He needs to improve to get to this level, but he's progressing there.

"Bart always said, what you need is patience, and there has been 13 years of patience to produce Carif."

The same interests have also needed to show a fair bit of patience with another 4-year-old Purple Sector (NZ) (Pins), who is also part owned by Matthew Sandblom.

A winner of two of his 15 starts, the John Thompson-trained entire resumed with a 10th in the G3 Newcastle Newmarket earlier this month and is an emergency in Saturday's G3 Doncaster Prelude and if he doesn't get a run there, he will compete in the opening race at Rosehill.

"He's still getting into shape after his long break after Brisbane. He had a foot issue, so he had a long rest. He's a big colt, and it’s taking him a while to get fit again. He's getting closer and getting better," Ramage said.

Easter challenges

This year will be the first year in some time that Ramage isn't selling any yearlings at the Inglis Easter Yearling Sale on behalf of Dato Tan China Nam's Think Big Stud, with the breeding operations dispersed after Dato's death last year, including Norzita, who sold for $1.7 million at last years' Inglis Chairman's Sale.

Should the Easter Sale progress, Ramage intends to be active as a buyer, having already picked up 13 yearlings across the sales earlier in the year.

Like all agents, he is apprehensive about the impact of the global coronavirus crisis on the bloodstock industry, but sees the possible suspension of racing as a greater concern.

"I've sold down most of the horses I have purchased, but the enquiries over the last few weeks have slowed up. I know from others that people who have bought horses, some of the prior commitment they have had has dried up. People are simply saying they won't be able to pay for the share of their horses," he said.

"I am probably going to hold a larger value of stock that has to be both paid for and be trained than I have customarily in the past. People may have held off to see what they could buy at Easter and depending on what happens there, they may still want to buy horses.

"The driver for us is prizemoney, so once the prizemoney dries up and the turnover dries up, it makes it hard. When racing stops, those two key drivers will dry up.

"That will have a bigger effect than potentially these yearlings not selling. Their owners always have the option of selling elsewhere or racing them themselves."