With just one Group 1 2-year-old race remaining in Australia this season, the influence of those at the top end of the previous year's yearling sales has never been as strong among Australian juveniles, with the average yearling price of the winners of the four races contested so far in 2020 at a record high of $912,500.
The dual Group 1 victories of $1.4 million 2019 Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale purchase King's Legacy (Redoute's Choice) are certainly a strong influence in that, but Golden Slipper S. winner Farnan (Not A Single Doubt), who cost $550,000, and Blue Diamond S. winner Tagaloa (Jpn) (Lord Kanaloa {Jpn}) at $300,000, both also sit in the top six most expensive Group 1-winning juveniles in Australia since 2010.
Average yearling price of Group 1-winning 2-year-olds
| 2020 | $912,500 |
| 2019 | $185,000 |
| 2018 | $828,333 |
| 2017 | $159,500 |
| 2016 | $111,250 |
| 2015 | $105,000 |
| 2014 | $60,333 |
| 2013 | * |
| 2012 | $208,000 |
| 2011 | * |
| 2010 | $94,000 |
*homebreds won all five races
Note: Average is calculated based on individual wins, not winners
To give that statistic some context, there have been 54 Group 1 2-year-old races held in Australia in the past 11 seasons. Of the 54 winners of those races, 24 were homebred, while 30 of them were sold through a yearling sale ring. The average yearling price for those 30 horses is $312,217, while the median price is a relatively modest $170,000.
To give that further context, the average yearling price across Australia's two top sales, the Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale and the Inglis Australian Easter Yearling Sale over those same 11 crops was $215,197.
Estijaab was the most expensive future juvenile Group 1 winner purchased for $1.7 million
The most expensive future juvenile Group 1 winner purchased in that time was 2018 Golden Slipper S, winner Estijaab (Snitzel) at $1.7 million, while the cheapest was 2016 Inglis Sires', winner Yankee Rose (All American) at just $10,000.
But while the past decade has seen some superb shopping being done, with eight horses purchased at $50,000 or less going on to win Group 1 races the following season, the trend has skewed dramatically in favour of more expensive horses in the past three years.
In 2018, the average price of the three 2-year-old Group 1 winners that went through a yearling sales ring was $828,333, and while in 2019, a year where Godolphin homebreds won three of the five Group 1s, that average slipped back to $185,000, it has exploded again in 2020, to nearly a million dollars.
Yankee Rose sold for just $10,000
Big buyers get it right on the Gold Coast
All the horses who have won Group 1 2-year-old races so far in 2020 were sold at Magic Millions' Gold Coast Yearling Sale in 2019, a sale which has gone from strength to strength in recent years because of the demand for elite and precocious stock in the Australian market.
"From Magic Millions' perspective, having these key lots succeed at Group 1 level shows that the market in this circumstance has been very well educated, selecting horses they thought were likely to succeed on the racetrack," Magic Millions Managing Director Barry Bowditch said.
"There is obviously an element of luck in it, but the good judges are finding their way to the Gold Coast. From our perspective, they are doing a lot of work on the catalogue and this year in particular, they have hit it out of the park."
Prague when selling for $1.6 million at the Gold Coast Magic Millions Yearling Sale
The 2020 trend plays out beyond just the winners of these big races. The average yearling price for the top three placegetters in the four Group 1 races to date stands at $725,000. $1.6 million colt Prague (Redoute's Choice) was second in the G1 Inglis Sires' while G1 Golden Slipper S. runner-up Away Game (Snitzel) cost $425,000.
When Away Game won the Magic Millions 2YO Classic in January, she became the second most expensive horse to win that race, behind $600,000 Exhilarates (Snitzel), who won the race in 2019, while the third most expensive was Sunlight (Zoustar) in 2018 at $300,000.
Away Game became the second most expensive horse to win the Magic Millions 2YO Classic
"It’s hard to believe that before Sunlight, a horse hadn't won the race that had cost more than $300,000," Bowditch said. "That's great, because everyone is a chance, but the last three years, obviously it’s more evident that the results have come from those horses which have gone for well above sale average."
The trend undoubtedly owes something to the growth in yearling sales prices in the past five years, which has powered the depth at the top end of the market and a higher volume of million-dollar horses than seen before, but there are also several other factors at play.
Magic Millions 2YO Classic Winners and yearling price since 2010
| 2020 | Away Game | $425,000 |
| 2019 | Exhilarates | $600,000 |
| 2018 | Sunlight | $300,000 |
| 2017 | Houtzen | $105,000 |
| 2016 | Capitalist | $165,000 |
| 2015 | Le Chef | $120,000 |
| 2014 | Unencumbered | $70,000 |
| 2013 | Real Surreal | $70,000 |
| 2012 | Driefontein | $75,000 |
| 2011 | Karuta Queen | $30,000 |
| 2010 | Military Rose | $155,000 |
Agents and trainers combine to get the edge
Bowditch also pointed to the acumen of agents and trainers, who have formed close alliances in order to ensure they have a better prospect of success when buying at the very top end.
"I feel that agents and trainers are working together more than they ever have come sale day." - Barry Bowditch
"I feel that agents and trainers are working together more than they ever have come sale day. The agents are buying horses that the trainers are keen on as well and they are working as one," Bowditch said.
"Obviously the formula these guys are working on, and there are plenty of them out there doing it now, they are creating the stronger racetrack results for these more sought after horses."
James Harron with King's Legacy as a yearling
Bloodstock agent James Harron has a strong record of purchasing Australia's future juvenile stars, and as well as King's Legacy, he has been part of the purchase of two recent Golden Slipper S., winners Capitalist (Written Tycoon) and Vancouver (Medaglia D'Oro {USA}).
It is his co-signer for Vancouver, trainer Gai Waterhouse, who has had more success than anyone else since 2010 in sourcing future 2-year-old Group 1 winners from the sale. The first lady of racing's name has been on the docket of winners of five of the 54 Group 1 races held in that timeframe, including the only Triple Crown winner, Pierro.
Gai Waterhouse inspecting yearlings at Newgate Farm
Pierro cost $230,000 from Musk Creek Farm from the 2011 Magic Millions Gold Coast Sale, having been sold to David Kobritz for $115,000 as a weanling.
Darley/Godolphin has been by far the most successful owner in the last 11 seasons, with 12 2-year-old Group 1 wins, all of them homebreds.
The most successful vendor through the sales in that period has been Arrowfield Stud, who have sold five individual Group 1 winners since 2017, The Autumn Sun (Redoute's Choice), Estijaab, Castelvecchio (Dundeel {NZ}), Tagaloa and Invader (Snitzel).
Magic formula for Group 1 success
In terms of the most successful sales across that time, Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale has been the source of more Group 1 2-year-old winners than anywhere else since 2010, with 15 of those 54 races won by graduates, including as mentioned, four this year.
"The vendors are allowing us the opportunity to market their very best yearlings," Bowditch said. "Our guys are selecting the ones that are ready for an early sale, the most precocious and quality types. The market is reflecting what both the vendors and us as a selling agent are doing."
"The vendors are allowing us the opportunity to market their very best yearlings." - Barry Bowditch
The average purchase price of the winners of those 15 races has been $387,833, compared to an overall Book 1 sale average of $173,911 on the Gold Coast in that period. Put simply, the high end buyers are on the money - paying just over two times average to source their Group 1 winners.
Top priced yearlings to win Group 1 2-year-old races in Australia since 2010
| Estijaab | $1,700,000 |
| King's Legacy | $1,400,000 |
| The Autumn Sun | $700,000 |
| Farnan | $550,000 |
| Invader | $475,000 |
| Tagaloa | $300,000 |
Inglis has sold the winners of 13 Group 1 2-year-old races since 2010 across its three select yearling sales.
Inglis' Easter Sale has had five of those, with an average price of $575,000, while Inglis' Classic has six 2-year-old Group 1 winners at an average price of $60,667 and Inglis Premier Sale two winners at an average of $55,000.
In addition, two other subsequent 2-year-old Group 1 winners were offered though Inglis sales and not sold as such retained to race by their breeders.
There has been one Australian Group 1 2-year-old winner sourced out of New Zealand Bloodstock's National Yearling Sale at Karaka in 2016 JJ Atkins S,. victor Sacred Elixir (NZ) (Pour Moi {Ire}), while Capital Gain (Ad Valorem {USA}), who won the Brisbane feature the following year, came through the Magic Millions Gold Coast 2YOs in Training Sale.
