The magic of the Cox Plate 3-year-old

The nature of the weight-for-age scale at this stage of the season can be particularly advantageous for emerging talents from the 3-year-old ranks. As set out in AR 168, Southern Hemisphere-bred 3-year-olds are allotted 49.5kg in races held in in the distance range of 2000 metres to 2400 metres during October, with a further 2kg allowance for fillies.

It means that 3-year-olds, many of whom are coming off races against their own age carrying 55.5kg or more, drop around 6kg, (8kg for fillies), as they step into elite open age company, usually for the first time.

Given that weight-for-age scale evens up later in the season, it is the early-season positioning of the Cox Plate which has given it this dynamic and combined with the unique nature of the Moonee Valley track, has helped create the iconic nature of the event.

There have been 20 3-year-old winners of the Cox Plate in its previous 99 editions, but just four in the past 30 years. So the question must be posed, is their influence in the race diminishing?

What we see when we look at the involvement of 3-year-olds in the Cox Plate is that since the year 2000, there has been a definite drop in participation levels. During the 1990s, there were 25 horses that attempted to win the Cox Plate in their 3-year-old year at an average of 2.5 per renewal.

In the 2000s, that dropped to 11, or 1.1 per year, and rose only slightly in the 2010s, where 12 3-year-olds contested the race, or 1.2 a year.

What became apparent in the 1990s was how difficult it was for these 3-year-olds to succeed against the best weight-for-age horses in the country. Of those 25 competitors, there was just one winner, Octagonal (NZ) (Zabeel {NZ}) in 1995, and two third placegetters, Slight Chance (NZ) (Centaine) in 1992 and Canny Lad (Bletchingly) in 1990.

It’s interesting to note that the 1992 Cox Plate, regarded by many of the greatest of the modern era, if not the best ever, contained more 3-year-olds than another other renewal since, with five, while there was only one edition in the 1990s, 1993, where there were no 3-year-old runners.

The strong flow of 3-year-old talent through the Cox Plate slowed to a trickle in the 2000s. Three-year-old contenders in the race became the exception, rather than the rule, and there were two editions, 2003 and 2007, that contained no runners, and another five which contained just one.

Savabeel's victory in 2004 stands out in an era with a paucity of opportunities for 3-year-olds, while Viscount (Quest For Fame {GB}) was third in 2001 and arguably could have won it if not finding himself in the middle of a boxing dual between champions Northerly (Serheed {USA}) and Sunline (NZ) (Desert Sun {GB}).

Samantha Miss (Redoute's Choice) became the first filly in 16 years to place in the race when third in the 2008 edition behind Maldivian (NZ) (Zabeel {NZ}), again without a great deal of luck, while the following year, 2009, saw the best showing from the 3-year-old contingent in the modern era.

So You Think (NZ) announced himself as a future star thanks to a bold front-running ride from Glen Boss, while Manhattan Rain completed a quinella for the 3-year-olds.

What was to be the first of So You Think's Cox Plate wins, meant that for the first time since the 1970s, there had been two 3-year-old winners in the same decade. In fact, the overall record of the 3-year-old Cox Plate runners in 2000s was quite strong, with five of the 11 runners, or 45.5 per cent, running top three, compared to 12 per cent in the 1990s.

The subsequent decade, the 2010s, also produced five Cox Plate placegetters from the 3-year-old category, from 12 runners, with a top three strike rate of 41.7 per cent. Shamus Award was to create his own piece of history in 2013, as the only horse ever to break his maiden in the great race. He remains the most recent 3-year-old winner.

The 2012 edition featured a couple of 3-year-olds with big profiles in All Too Hard and Pierro, who had fought out the Caulfield Guineas 14 days' earlier. They would finish second and third respectively in the Cox Plate, beaten by Ocean Park (NZ).

In 2016, the G1 Spring Champion S.-winning filly Yankee Rose (All American), finished third, while last year, Castelvecchio stormed home for second, eclipsed by the Japanese raider Lys Gracieux (Jpn) (Heart's Cry {Jpn}).

Combining all the results over the past 30 years, there have been 48 3-year-olds contest the Cox Plate since 1990, or an average of 1.6 per year. The winning strike rate is 8.4 per cent, while the placegetter strike rate is 27.1 per cent with 13 horses finishing in the top three.

The answer to our question about the ongoing influence of 3-year-old runners is that while the quantity of runners has dropped, off, the quality certainly has not.

It's worth mentioning that 2014 saw the first Northern Hemisphere 3-year-old, Adelaide (Ire) win the race, but for the purposes of this discussion, he is not included in the stats. They are classified as 4-year-olds under the Australian Rules of Racing but do now get a 1kg weight allowance on Southern Hemisphere 4-year-olds, although that allowance was 1.5kg back in 2014.

The annual 3-year-old debate

What is perhaps lost in the analysis of race results only is the dynamic and debate created by the strong participation of 3-year-olds in the Cox Plate.

Each year, the debate rages over whether the winners of the major early 3-year-old races, in particular the Caulfield Guineas, Thousand Guineas and the Spring Champion S., should take on the best open aged horses.

There is also considerable discussion generated, as it has been this week, when an emerging 3-year-old yet to register that major win, is aimed in the race. The inclusion of Caulfield Guineas placegetter Grandslam (Myboycharlie {Ire}) in the field for the 100th edition of the race at the expense of import Buckhurst (Ire) (Australia {GB}) created a huge debate, with the Moonee Valley Racing Club having discretion on the final field.

Shamus Award's inclusion, initially as an emergency in 2013, was controversial, given he had not even won a race to that point, while there were also those who thought So You Think wasn't justified a spot in 2009 having only run fifth in the Caulfield Guineas at his prior start.

In 2003, it was the exclusion of a 3-year-old that caused a huge stir when Elvstroem (Danehill {USA}) did not meet the approval of the Moonee Valley committee. History tells us he would go on to win five Group 1 races.

The stallion influence

Another ongoing legacy of the Cox Plate 3-year-olds is in the breeding barn. The four colts to have won the Cox Plate have been able to parlay that success into very successful stallion careers, with all four being Group 1 producers.

Octagonal left a huge mark, chiefly through his own sire son Lonhro, Savabeel has broken all sorts of records at Waikato Stud, So You Think is building an imposing record at Coolmore while Shamus Award's burgeoning career, now at Rosemont Stud, has already seen him produce a dual Group 1 winner in Mr Quickie.

Failure to win a Cox Plate has certainly not diminished the future breeding prospects of top 3-year-olds, going forward, either. Every colt to have contested the race since 2000 has gone on to a stallion career and included in the beaten brigade Group 1 producers such as Show A Heart, Bel Esprit, Pierro, Manhattan Rain and All Too Hard.

The 1999 edition featured the colt who would become the most prominent stallion for the early part of this century, in Redoute's Choice, who finished fifth, while the two other colts to contest that year, Testa Rossa and Commands, would also go on to become stallions of considerable influence.