Race Analysis: Saturday recap

5 min read
Joel Davies looks back on the week's racing to analyse the sectionals and performances of the winners and how they're progressing towards their next targets.

Cover image courtesy of Ashlea Brennan

We saw some incredible performances last weekend, in particular that of a Sydney 2-year-old who can go all the way to winning this year’s Golden Slipper. Stay Inside (Extreme Choice) was very impressive at his first start on January 23 when breaking 57s for 1000 metres at Randwick on a good track, and he backed it up last Saturday in the Pierro Plate, showing that he is not a one-trick pony.

The exciting colt blew his rivals away on a deteriorating track (Soft 7) with an electric turn of foot to win by 4l.

Stay Inside has now performed on both wet and dry tracks, but his sectional profile is more impressive. He ran 10.67s from the 1000 metres to 800 metres, and finished off as strongly with an impressive 10.96s from the 400 metres to 200 metres. In other words, he has done it at both ends of the race, with James McDonald allowing him to coast to the line.

With 10 of the past 13 editions of the G1 Golden Slipper run on a Soft track or heavier, last weekend makes Stay Inside a number-one seed to take out this year’s biggest juvenile race.

Flemington performances

Flemington also provided some great performances over the weekend.

While Regardsmaree (So You Think {NZ}) produced the best overall winning effort on Saturday, the 4-year-old gelding also turned in the slowest overall time on the day for 1400 metres (1:23.19). The early speed in that race was around 10l below average and, given where he settled in the run, it was a huge effort for Regardsmaree to win (considering they came home around 5l quicker than average). The gelding ran his last 600 metres in 33.13s, which was the fastest of the day outside the G1 Black Caviar Lightning S.

Impressively, Regardsmaree had to run down Group 1-placed galloper Buffalo River (USA) (Noble Mission {GB}) on a day where it was not easy to come from the back of the field for a win. Trainer Nick Ryan has done a superb job with the So You Think (NZ) gelding, having not had him long, and Regardsmaree has now won four of five races for Ryan and will be aimed at the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke S. over 1400 metres in the spring.

The Australian Guineas lead-up races continued on Saturday, and there were a few hidden performances outside the winners. Zou Dancer (Zoustar) was excellent, taking out the G3 Vanity S. (1400 metres) in 1:22.32. She will now head towards the Australian Guineas (1600 metres) in a fortnight, which will be a different set-up to last Saturday’s event. The question remains as to her running a strong mile, and last weekend’s track condition fails to answer it. The Flemington going got harder as the day wore on, and it became increasingly more difficult to make ground.

Personal (Fastnet Rock) and Starelle (More Than Ready {USA}), second and third respectively in the Vanity, posted good efforts after returning from their G1 VRC Oaks campaigns last spring. And fifth-placed Thunder Peak (Vancouver) may find a suitable race soon after missing the start of the Vanity, but she still managed to run on well.

Tagaloa back in the winner's circle

G1 Blue Diamond S. winner Tagaloa (Lord Kanaloa {Jpn}) also bounced back into the winner’s circle on Saturday, taking out the G3 CS Hayes S. (1400 metres) in the race’s second-fastest time in 20 years (1:21.63). Like Zou Dancer, Tagaloa put himself right on the speed and kicked away to win well. He is another query as an Australian Guineas winner because the shape and pattern of the day at Flemington allowed him to dominate from the front, and it’s unlikely he will get similar circumstances in the Australian Guineas.

The WA visitor Dom To Shoot (Shooting To Win) was also one of the better performances from the CS Hayes. The horse was tardy out of the gates and, though settling near the back of the field, was able to make up many lengths in the straight to finish fifth (his final 600 metres was 33.52s, the fastest of the race). It was his first run in 10 weeks and he will be fitter for his next outing. Dom To Shoot’s ability to sit near the speed, despite his slow start on Saturday, and the capacity to rise to 1600 metres are both ticks from the perspective of an Australian Guineas.

Randwick standouts

It’s also worth noting that impressive performances at Randwick on Saturday by Tailleur (Shooting To Win) (in the G3 Triscay S.) and Birdonawinningpost (Shooting To Win) (in the Highway), in addition to Dom To Shoot, put a feather in the cap of their sire, Darley resident Shooting To Win.

Golden Eagle winner Colette (Hallowed Crown) resumed in the G2 Apollo S. (1400 metres) at Randwick on Saturday and was once again impressive on her preferred wet ground. Due to the small field and good barrier, she was able to sit closer in transit and showed a devastating turn of foot, running a blistering 10.82s (the fastest split of the race) from the 400 metre to 200 metre mark.

In turn, she disposed of a field of multiple Group 1 winners. Verry Elleegant (NZ) (Zed {NZ}) returned nicely too, running the second-fastest final 600 metres for the race (33.79s) despite a slow early tempo. Both mares will meet again in a fortnight in the G1 Chipping Norton S. (1600 metres).

Joel Davies