Cover image courtesy of Bronwen Healy

Of the five Group 1 races rescheduled Rosehill for this Saturday, only the Golden Slipper has retained its original field, with plenty of opportunities for horses travelling from elsewhere to target races that timing had meant were off the radar until the sudden change of schedule.

Among those could be recent All-Star Mile winner Mugatoo (Ire) (Henrythenavigator {USA}), who has now been nominated for the G1 George Ryder S. on Saturday, having not been in the field when it was first declared last week.

Trainer Kris Lees is yet to confirm if he will head to the George Ryder S. with indications that his connections still want to target the G1 Doncaster, now to be held on April 10. His owners Australian Bloodstock have indicated he won't run in the George Ryder if that is the case. Should he start this Saturday, it would be a sign that he will progress to the G1 Queen Elizabeth S.

Other possible additions from the nominations to the George Ryder include Star Of The Seas (NZ) (Ocean Park {NZ}), Godolphin pair Best Of Days (GB) (Azamour {Ire}) and Criaderas (Lonhro) and the 3-year-old Mo'unga (NZ) (Savabeel), who is also nominated for the G1 Rosehill Guineas.

The suspended race meeting was a bonus for John Thompson and Dreamforce (Fastnet Rock), who won the George Ryder 12 months ago. Thompson was set to scratch the 8-year-old on the Heavy track but will run him this week should it improve into the Soft range. It's a similar story for Arcadia Queen (Pierro), who was initially taken out of the Ryder.

Guineas now on radar for raiders

The Rosehill Guineas is set to take on a different shape as well, with it now providing a clear step to the G1 Derby for those horses travelling from Melbourne. Grandslam (Myboycharlie {Ire}), Cherry Tortoni (Night Of Thunder {Ire}) and Young Werther (NZ) (Tavistock {NZ}), who all contested the G2 Alistair Clark S. on March 13, are all good chances to contest the race this Saturday, rather than wait another week for the G2 Tulloch S.

Lion's Roar (NZ) (Contributer {Ire}) remains in the nominations, but trainer John O'Shea has indicated he will not accept for the race if it's a very Heavy track, as he possibly looks to target the G1 Queen Elizabeth S. in preference to the G1 Australian Derby.

The schedule change will likely have an impact on the depth of the field in the G2 Tulloch S. on April 3. It has proven a brilliant lead-in guide for the Australian Derby in recent times, with the past four winners going on to claim the Derby the following week.

The Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman-trained Frontman (NZ) (Makfi {GB}), third in the G1 New Zealand Derby, will head to the Tulloch, but the horse that ran second in that race, Milford (NZ) (Savabeel) is nominated for the Rosehill Guineas.

New Zealand Derby winner Rocket Spade (Fastnet Rock) also holds a nomination for the Rosehill Guineas, but will remain at home for now to contest a 1600 metre race at Tauranga this weekend before heading straight to the Derby on April 10.

Numbers, quality up for Ranvet

The G1 Ranvet S., which originally had a final field of just five, is set to by bolstered in quality and quantity by the presence of a couple of Victorian-trained runners in 2019 VRC Oaks winner Miami Bound (NZ) (Reliable Man {GB}) and G1 Cox Plate winner Sir Dragonet (Ire) (Camelot {GB}).

Colette (Hallowed Crown) is also among the nominations for the race, while in-form mare Toffee Tongue (NZ) (Tavistock {NZ}) is another horse who could now head to the race, having had two weeks since her G3 Sky High S. win.

While Addeyyb (Ire) (Pivotal {GB}) and Verry Elleegant (NZ) (Zed {NZ}) are still expected to dominate the market, the wildcard might be the Peter Moody-trained import Nickajack Cave (Ire) (Kendargent {Fr}), who is another addition to the nominations for what would be his debut run in Australia.

Galaxy of options

The Group 1 race that could be set for the biggest shake-up is The Galaxy, with Nature Strip (Nicconi) among the nominations released on Monday. While there is no indication from the Chris Waller stable that he will definitely accept for the race, his presence would change the weights for the handicap race significantly.

Should he accept, he would likely be given 59-59.5kg, which will force an adjustment for the runners who accepted last week. Eduardo (Host {Chi}), who defeated him last start in the G2 Challenge S., was top weight in the original acceptances at 58kg, but is rated around nine points below Nature Strip.

There is also a chance that horses who contested last week's G1 William Reid S. such as Libertini (I Am Invincible), Brooklyn Hustle (Starspangledbanner) and Pippie (Written Tycoon) could back-up in The Galaxy, changing the speed map, and the shape of the race.

Kiwis suited by delay

Beyond this week, there are several horses whose autumn campaigns have also been boosted by having another week to prepare for target races. G1 New Zealand Oaks winner Amarelinha (NZ) (Savabeel) is one such horse and she is now favourite for the G1 Australian Oaks on April 17 with an extra week to recover from her win at Trentham on Saturday.

One horse she won't have to worry about in Sydney is NZ Oaks runner-up Charms Star (NZ) (Per Incanto {USA}), who is likely to head to the G1 Queensland Oaks later in the season.

The extra week has also played into the hands of Amarelinha's Te Akau stablemate Melody Belle (NZ) (Commands), who will tackle the G1 Tancred S. on April 3, her first try up to the 2400 metres.

Probabeel (NZ) (Savabeel) will only run in Sydney if the tracks improve in the next couple of weeks. Her target is most likely to be the G1 Coolmore Legacy.

Cover image courtesy of Bronwen Healy

The level of first-season sire representation in the Golden Slipper, which includes three colts by Capitalist and colts by Shalaa (Ire), Flying Artie, Extreme Choice and Frosted (USA), is historically high, and a significant jump on the average of 1.8 first-season representatives per edition of the Slipper in the previous 12 years.

The prominence of this crop has been aided by high profile victories in the three richest 2-year-old races run already in Australia this season.

It was a trend set by Shalaa colt Shaquero (Shalaa {Ire}) in the R. Listed Magic Millions 2YO Classic, and then followed through by Profiteer (Capitalist) in the R. Listed Inglis Millennium before Artorius' victory in the G1 Blue Diamond S. on behalf of his sire, Flying Artie.

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There have been seven stakes winners by first-season sires already this season, a mark just one short of what was achieved in a whole season by the freshman class in 2019/20. On current pace, this rich crop can match what was achieved in 2017/18, when there were 14 stakes winners by first-season sires.

That season, which was headlined by Spirit Of Boom and Zoustar, is the high-water mark for freshman achievement at black-type level in the past decade. There were 13.33 per cent of stakes winners to overall winners from those new sires in 2017/18 and a 2.88 per cent ratio of stakes winners to runners.

This current crop is tracking at a very healthy 12.28 per cent stakes winners/winners, higher than every other season apart from 2017/18, and significantly up on the overall stakes success to winners ratio of 7.42 per cent over the past 13 seasons. It is also tracking at 2.14 per cent of stakes winners to runners, again the second highest ratio in that timeframe.

Table: Record of first-season sires - stakes winners

*current season in progress

A wide spread of success

It is not just the high-profile sires that are experiencing early success from the current freshman class. With over four months of the season remaining, 26 freshman stallions have had winners already.

That matches the amount of freshman stallions to have had winners in each of the past two seasons. Since 2014/15, when there were 32 stallions with winners, the average number of successful first-season stallions per season has been 25.5.

An interesting trend has been the reducing number of sires being able to secure first-season success over the past decade. In 2008/09, there were 40 winning first-season sires, with numbers of 33, 36, 36 and 31 the following four seasons. Since then, those numbers have dropped off.

The number of individual stallions to have sired stakeswinners with their first crop has stayed relatively steady since that boom season of 2008/09 where there were 11 of them which toasted black-type 2-year-old success with their first crop. Since then, the numbers have varied from a low of three in 2011/12 to a high of seven in 2014/15, 2017/18 and 2018/19.

There are five first-season stallions so far in 2020/21 which have had stakes winners, Capitalist, Shalaa, Frosted, Flying Artie and Astern, but that number looks certain to grow with so many 2-year-old stakes races yet to be run, and so many runners by first-season sires.

As a measure of comparison, at the same stage of last season, there were three stakes-winning freshman sires, while in 2018/19, there were seven after the completion of the Golden Slipper.

Table: Success of first-season sires

*current season in progress

Numbers to the track

Indeed, it is the volume of starters by these freshman sires which is also playing a significant role in their statistically dominant season. So far this season, there have been 327 runners from first-crop sires. That compares with total numbers of 472 across the entire season in 2019/20 and 564 in 2018/19.

When you consider that the 2-year-old season doesn't start until a month into the season and only ramps up in terms of the number of races post-Christmas, it would be no surprise to see the amount of runners surpass the total of 661 first-crop competitors set in 2008/09.

Part-season numbers are difficult to compare like-for-like with full season numbers, particularly when it comes to stats such as winners/runners, because obviously horses may take a couple of runs at the start of their careers to become winners. However, it is worth noting that with 57 first-crop winners from those 327 starters, the ratio of winners to runners currently stands at 17.43 per cent.

If that success rate was to extend across the entire season, it would represent the lowest winners/runner percentage of any season since 2016/17 (16.28 per cent). The highest success of winners to runners for first-crop sires in recent times was set in 2018/19 at 25.71 per cent.

That was a season which featured more first-crop 2-year-old winners than any other in recent memory with 145. Those numbers were boosted by the extraordinary volume of first-season winners from both Better Than Ready (25) and Deep Field (23).

That season saw the average winners per winning sire (26) for that freshman group jump to a historic high of 5.58. As it stands in 2020/21, the same stat sits at 2.19.

Table: First-season sires runners to winners

*current season in progress

The money makers

But when you look at prizemoney earned, then it tips the scales very much in favour of the dominance of the class of 2020/21. The progeny of first-crop stallions have already earned over $9.3 million in prizemoney this season. That amount is already more than nine of the past 12 freshman crops earned in their entire seasons and well on track to surpass the record of $14.5 million earned by the progeny of the 2018/19 freshman class in their debut season.

When you break that down by an average prizemoney per runner then you can see why there is so much confidence in the progeny of young stallions in Australia at the moment. As it stands, progeny of first-crop stallions have averaged $28,457 per runner in 2020/21. The comparative average across the previous 12 seasons has been $15,891.

The challenge with statistics is that they can be cut so many ways, and as mentioned part-season statistics are not easily comparable to those achieved by the end of the year. But it is notable that the above numbers have been achieved prior to the running of Australia's richest 2-year-old race this Saturday, where first-season progeny are so strongly represented.

Table: Prizemoney earned by progeny of first-season sires

*current season in progress

Cover image courtesy of the Hong Kong Jockey Club

Sky Darci joined Ping Hai Star (NZ) (Nom Du Jeu {NZ}) on Sunday evening as a Highden Park-raised and sold winner of the prestigious Hong Kong Derby to have owner-operators Sam and Libby Bleakley pinching themselves.

The husband and wife team established their thoroughbred business on the outskirts of Palmerston North in 2010 and success came quickly, selling the multiple Group 1 winner Beauty Generation (NZ) (Road To Rock) in one of its earliest drafts to New Zealand Bloodstock’s National Yearling Sale.

Sky Darci was offered at Karaka by Highden and sold for NZ$150,000 to the Kwan family and races in the ownership of Jessica Kwan and trained by Caspar Fownes.

“It’s all a bit surreal to be honest, we didn’t anticipate him winning and weren’t sure about him getting the distance. We knew he was a good horse, but he was up against some high-priced ones so we got caught off-guard really,” Libby Bleakley said.

While it was business as usual at Highden the day after the Derby, Tuesday will be a more relaxed affair.

“The wheels have to keep turning, I still have to take the kids to day care and the lawns need mowing and horses to look after so it doesn’t stop. We’ll take the team out on Tuesday to celebrate, you have to enjoy these moments,” she said.

“Beauty Generation ran third in the Derby as well and we’ve only had a handful of horses off the farm head up to Hong Kong. It’s just huge for us because the Derby means everything and we all know the prestige of it in Hong Kong and a race everyone wants to win.”

Sky Darci was bred by loyal clients Mark Freeman and David Price, who also bred and raced half-brother Chocante (NZ) (Shocking), winner of the G2 Brisbane Cup, the G3 Counties Cup and third in the G1 Metropolitan.

“Sky Darci was a lovely horse and was really straightforward and did his work, ate his food and a simple type. Those ones are generally very well-suited to Hong Kong,” Bleakley said.

“There’s not a person who works with horses that doesn’t understand the hard work that goes in and the financial investment involved.

“Mark and David have been with us at Highden Park from the beginning, most of our other owners have, and to see them have a turn was great. It was Mark’s birthday on Sunday so it was an amazing present for him.”

At the end of his racing days, Ping Hai Star returned to Highden, also the home of the multiple Group 1 winner and Hong Kong Horse of the Year Werther (NZ) (Tavistock {NZ}).

“Werther’s mum Bagalollies is our resident matriarch and we use Werther and Ping Hai Star as welfare ambassadors to show returning racehorses can have a really good life, whether they can be ridden or not. We would be lost without the boys here,” Bleakley said.

“We did try and get Beauty Generation home, but he went to Living Legends, which I completely understand.

“Bagalollies is amazing and is in foal to The Autumn Sun and due to have an early August foal. We cannot wait to see what that mating produces.

“I had a New Zealand studmaster joke that she should have been named Bagofmoney with what she’s done as a broodmare!”

Prize broodmare

Bagalollies (NZ) (Zabeel {NZ}) is also the dam of the G3 New Zealand Cup winner Gobstopper (NZ) (Tavistock {NZ}) and his sister Toffee Tongue (NZ) won last season’s G1 Australasian Oaks winner and the G3 Sky High S. earlier this month.

Toffee Tongue was sold through the Highden Park draft at Karaka for NZ$500,000 to agent Dean Hawthorne, acting on behalf of Jonathan Munz’s Pinecliff Racing.

Sky Darci’s Hong Kong Derby victory headlined an outstanding evening for the New Zealand industry with five under-card Kiwi-bred winners – Beluga (NZ) (Tavistock {NZ}), Charity Grace (NZ) (Per Incanto {USA}), the unbeaten Courier Wonder (NZ) (Sacred Falls {NZ}), Fantastic Way (NZ) (Swiss Ace) and Reliable Team (NZ) (Reliable Man {GB}).

Beluga was sold at Karaka as a yearling by Curraghmore for NZ$150,000 to a group of partners, including Riversley Park who then offered him at the Ready to Run Sale where agent John Foote bought him for NZ$400,000.

Foote also purchased the Waikato Stud-bred Courier Wonder for NZ$150,000 and Fantastic Way for NZ$100,000 out of Westbury Stud’s draft.

Charity Grace was a NZ$5000 yearling purchase when offered by Little Avondale Stud, who failed to meet a NZ$46,000 reserve when presented as a yearling by Haunui Farm and sold privately after again failing to meet a NZ$40,000 reserve at the Ready to Run Sale.

Reliable Team was passed in as a yearling at a NZ$50,000 by Mapperley Stud and secured by Upper Bloodstock for NZ$430,000 when offered by Phoenix Park at the Ready to Run Sale.