Smart shopping at Easter

There are a variety of ways to measure the success of a yearling once it leaves the sales ring, but the most time-honoured method is how they perform on the track. Given the profile of the Easter Sale, and the select nature of the catalogue, there is always an expectation of success.

Since 2007, a year which signalled the height of Australian bloodstock's last big boom (before the current one), there have been 6010 yearlings sold through the Easter Yearling Sale ring, with 423 of them, or just over seven percent, having achieved the status of stakes winners. Of that collection, 80 (1.33 per cent) have reached the pinnacle of Group 1 success.

All statistics in this article, which have been compiled from both Arion and Inglis, are based on horses sold through Easter, not horses offered. A further nine Group 1 winners have been passed in at Easter since 2007.

What does a stakes winner cost?

A top-line look at the market reveals the average price of an Easter stakes winner since 2007 is $366,143. For the 80 Group 1 winners, that price is a slightly higher at $399,275. As a measure of comparison, the average price of all Easter yearlings sold in the past 15 years is $268,000, noting this is without inflation inclusions.

The fluctuations of the market and the fortunes that emerge are evident in the fact that in 2007, boom era, the average price of the 42 stakes winners to emerge from that Sale was $511,074. Then, just three years later in 2010, the 34 stakes winners were secured at $246,639.

That was largely a reflection of the downturn in the wake of the global financial crisis.

Table: Average price of stakes winners sold at Inglis Easter Yearling Sale since 2007

A comparison to the overall average of the individual Sale is an effective way to assess the premium to which stakes winners were purchased through each of those Easter Yearling Sales.

In 2015, the difference between the price of stakes winners ($262,125) and the overall Sale average ($248,871) was 5.3 per cent. At the opposite end of the spectrum, in 2019 the sale average of $353,511 produced 10 stakes winners to date averaging $678,000.

Drawing comparisons with more recent yearling crops can be a little problematic, given that more precocious horses tend to cost more and are more likely to be stakes winners earlier in their career.

The most successful edition Sale in terms of stakes winners produced in the past 15 years has been 2008, with 47, while 2018, 2015 and 2007 have all produced 40 or more each. Regarding the number of Group 1 winners, the 2014 and 2015 editions share top honours with eight sold in each.

What does a Group 1 winner cost?

The average price of a Group 1 winner out of the Easter Sale in the past 15 years is just short of $400,000. That amount includes seven horses which cost $1 million or more and 15 which cost $100,000 or less, so there is value to be found at both ends of the spectrum.

The 2007 Sale produced two $1-million-plus horses who would go on to Group 1 glory - both by Redoute's Choice - Master Of Design and Samantha Miss.

Across the five Group 1 winners sold at that Sale, the average price was a hefty $911,000.

Seven years later, at the 2015 Sale, there were eight future Group 1 winners sold. Their average price was just $131,250, speaking to the smart shopping that was done at that time when the market had softened.

Dual Group 1 winning mare Nettoyer (Sebring) came through that Sale for $20,000, while Egg Tart (Sebring) cost $40,000, Flying Artie (Artie Schiller {USA}) $50,000, Land Of Plenty (Stratum) $80,000 and Hall Of Fame (Stratum) $100,000.

Of the 157 horses purchased for $100,000 or less, an extraordinary 3.2 per cent ended up as Group 1 winners, while 8.28 per cent, or 13 of them, subsequently won stakes races. Indicating the fickle nature of the market, there were 10 horses purchased for $1 million or more at that 2015 sale, and none of them tasted stakes success.

Table: Average price of G1 winners sold at Inglis Easter Yearling Sale since 2007

At the top end

The racetrack performance of $1 million-plus yearlings is always heavily scrutinised, often much to the chagrin of those who operate at the top end.

But while perception may be that these big money horses often fail to live up to the hype, the stats indicate that greater investment does equal greater success.

From 2007 until 2018, there were 142 lots purchased at Easter for $1 million or more, with 12.6 per cent of them ending up as stakes winners, as compared to 7 per cent across all price ranges at the same Sale. Of those, seven won Group 1 races at a strike rate of 4.93 per cent, as compared to 1.33 per cent for all horses.

Master Of Design, at $2.1 million, is the most expensive of those Group 1 winners, and he, Wandjina, All Too Hard and Mustaaqeem, all went on to careers at stud.

Of the 48 horses purchased for $1 million or more across 2016, 2017 and 2018, a staggering 16.7 per cent of them ended up as stakes winners.

Table: Race record of $1-million-plus yearlings at Inglis Easter Yearling Sale since 2007

Looking for a bargain

The lower end of the price spectrum has also proven to be good shopping for those at Easter over the years, however opportunities in that price bracket of $100,000 or less have dried up as the market has kicked in the last few years.

In 2009, 170 yearlings, or nearly 28 per cent of the catalogue, were purchased at Easter in that $100,000 or less bracket. By 2021, in keeping with the market lift across all sales, that has dropped to just 47, or 13.2 per cent.

That 2015 Sale proved a high-water mark for those in the cheaper bracket, with an amazing 13 horses in that category ending up with stakes wins. In 2014, seven horses purchased in that price bracket ended up with stakes success, while 2008, with eight (5.23 per cent), and 2018 with four (4.6 per cent), were also notable in that regard.

Among the collection of 65 stakes-winning Easter yearlings since 2007 that cost $100,000 or less are a successful stallion in Flying Artie, a G1 Golden Slipper S. winner in Mossfun (Mossman), a Group 1 winner and Golden Slipper-producing mare in Response (Charge Forward), a G1 Al Quoz Sprint winner in Amber Sky (Exceed And Excel) and a Group 1-winning filly who would fetch $2.7 million as a broodmare prospect, Funstar (Adelaide {Ire}).

Table: Race record of $100,000 or less yearlings at Inglis Easter Yearling Sale since 2007