Global stallion value: Part 2

Given considerable prizemoney differences between regions, comparing earnings achieved by the progeny of the world’s most expensive stallions is an exercise which comes with some obvious caveats. However, doing so can also provide an insight into those differences, especially when each stallion’s number of stakes winners is considered too.

In Part 1 we saw Europe once again home to the two most expensive stallions in the world. Based on stakes winners, their dominance extends even further. Dubawi (Ire) and Frankel (GB) again fill the top two spots, with Sea The Stars (Ire) jumping into third with 24 stakes winners so far in 2022.

Those with a keen eye for international racing might, at this point, jump to the conclusion that it's Ireland's abundance of stakes races which afford Europe's domination of this metric. Although figures aren't available for 2022, in 2021 a whopping 8.9 per cent of Ireland's races were black type, compared to 4.5 per cent in Great Britain, 4.8 per cent in France, 4.2 per cent in the US and 3.2 per cent in Australia (for the comparable 2020/21 season).

However, in 2022 just three of Dubawi’s 44 stakes winners came in Ireland, the same number achieved by Frankel - who had twice as many in Australia. And, even though he’s Irish-based, Sea The Stars achieved just a single stakes winner in his home nation, finding far more success in the UAE, where 22.1 per cent of all races were black type in 2021 - more on that later.

On stakes winners, Sea The Stars sits just one ahead of the first non-European, Into Mischief (USA), but ordering them by progeny earnings achieved so far in 2022 would bring the Spendthrift Farm resident out on top, roughly $3 million ahead of Dubawi.

It’s well established that European prizemoney can’t match levels seen in the United States, let alone Australia, especially in Dubawi’s native Great Britain. So why, then, is the Darley superstar less than 10 per cent behind his counterpart US Champion?

Take a look at their stakes winners and the answer begins to reveal itself. Leaving out Flightline (USA) (who will begin covering in 2023) and Extreme Choice, the remaining most expensive global stallions are split evenly (four apiece) between Europe and the US. The average number of stakes winners produced from that European group is 28.5, whilst the US-based four averaged 14.75 in 2022.

Table: 2022 stakes winners of the world's most expensive stallions

But why the difference? None of the top 10 shuttle and physiology puts a natural cap on book sizes. Plus, The Pattern dictates the number of stakes opportunities in both regions.

The obvious answer? Dirt. Throughout his lifetime, Dubawi has had 68 runners in the US for 17 stakes winners (and 179 for 22 in Australia), whereas Into Mischief has had just 10 runners in Europe without a single stakes success.

Granted, there are other options for the dirt-preferring progeny of North America’s best stallions, and rich ones too, the two prime examples being the Saudi Cup - the inaugural running of which was won by the now Coolmore America-based Maximum Security (USA) - and the Dubai World Cup, won earlier this year by the Bob Baffert-trained Country Grammer (USA) (Tonalist {USA}).

But, whilst lucrative, these options for dirt horses are sparse compared to those for turf horses. Then there’s the parochial considerations too.

A hint came yesterday in TDN AusNZ when we discussed the decision to stand Extreme Choice on Northern Hemisphere time at Newgate Farm next year with Bruce Slade. He gave as a primary supporting argument that: “The world is your oyster if you get a good horse.”

With lower prizemoney in Europe they are more inclined to travel with their best horses. Add the dirt restriction on to some of North America’s best and there’s even more reason to stay at home, ultimately competing against each other.

A final point to note on Dubawi in particular concerns his ownership. Though Dubawi is in fact owned by Sheikh Mohammed’s cousin, Sheikh Mohammed Obaid, he is very much considered a true product of Darley’s behemoth breeding operation. As such, many of his best progeny are sent from Europe to campaign in Dubai each year, where there is a high proportion of stakes races and good prizemoney.

A great example is the recently retired Naval Crown (GB). His two stints in Dubai as an early season 3- and 4-year-old yielded a stakes victory each time, and didn’t stop him competing at the highest level when he resumed in Europe each spring.

Elite sales results

With the world’s major yearling sales completed for the calendar year, a look at the sales results for the globally elite stallions provides some interesting insights.

Please note that we will use the most recent service fees when making comparisons in this section. Although the progeny discussed are likely to have been conceived off a different fee, the most recent one is a good indicator of how stallion values are influenced by the yearling sales markets.

Last year it was Australia’s own I Am Invincible who led the world on aggregate yearling sales. This year, despite again breaching the $50 million barrier, he has been surpassed by Into Mischief, whose 2022 yearlings sold collectively for just over $60 million, including 20 seven-figure lots (when converted to Australian Dollars).

Remarkably, less than $2000 behind I Am Invincible, and with his aggregate growing by more than $10 million from last year is Zoustar, whose first crop of Northern Hemisphere yearlings, which sold last year, evidently left a good impression.

Despite his yearling sales aggregate reaching almost exactly the same $41.5 million as last year, Snitzel is now ninth instead of third. The Arrowfield Stud team won’t be worried though, as he provides the greatest return of these elite sires, with his yearlings selling on average for a little over 2.6 times his fee (2.4 if you include GST).

With his first crop of Southern Hemisphere yearlings selling in 2022, Justify (USA) saw his aggregate sales climb by almost $10 million, and he too is another who provided an excellent return, with his 145 yearlings selling for an average of $347,581.

Table: Leading sires on aggregate yearling sales in 2022

This metric sees Dubawi slide to the other end of the table for once, but he also had the fewest number of yearlings to represent him in the ring. Last year 23 Dubawi yearlings sold for an average of $989,000. His 28 lots to sell in 2022 (all but one offered) did so at an average of $1.32 million - more than double his $633,500 service fee.

With Frankel providing similar results, this is likely a reflection of the shape of the European market. It differs to Australia, in particular, in that much of the progeny from their elite stallions is held in the private hands of the major breeding operations.

That Australia jumps in to play a more prominent role in this particular top 10 is significant. It speaks to the health of the industry here that we feature relatively cheap service fees and some of the lowest yearling averages amongst the global elite stallions. If you add in world-leading prizemoney levels, Australia appears to be the best value thoroughbred market there is.

* All data sourced from Arion