Cover image courtesy of Inglis

*Data sourced from Inglis’ website on 11/04/23

For anyone who stayed late enough to see it, there was a look of jubilation about Inglis Bloodstock CEO Sebastian Hutch after he’d finished composing himself for the sale’s concluding media rounds. The strong start on Day 1 carried on into the concluding day and the sale finished with a flourish, producing a $1.8 million sale-topper just 16 lots from the end.

Hutch could be forgiven if there was also a sense of relief mixed in with the good cheer. It had been nearly four months since the yearling sales season had kicked off on the Gold Coast and, although the results there had been strong at the top end, the middle market had lagged in comparison since.

As Magic Millions' flagship sale, January's Gold Coast event contained elite yearlings in its top 25 per cent of sales which kept the average up throughout. In theory, with half the catalogue size, the market correction seen in the lower three quarters of the market in January should be less obvious at the Easter Sale. But, with no comparable sale in between, it was hard for Hutch to be bullish after months of a market correction playing out.

As it turns out, he needn’t have worried. A total of 26 million-dollar yearlings changed hands over the two days, a second-best total since the sale’s inception, and the average of $390,225 was within $10,000 of the 2022 record.

With a clearance rate of 84 per cent and a median of $280,000 - both down only slightly from last year - things appeared healthy. So, TDN AusNZ asks: Is all as well as it seems?

Chart: The median price over the past five editions of the Inglis Australian Easter Yearling Sale

The healthy signs

The short answer is yes. However, the near-record haul of seven-figure results is misleading, as it appears that the Easter market has not been driven by the same top-end growth that affected the Magic Millions sale in January.

The first point of difference is the most telling. Breaking the market up into quartiles, we saw that the average price of the most expensive 25 per cent of horses at Magic Millions has been growing steadily for years.

The same was true of Inglis Easter (barring the COVID-affected 2020 edition) until it dropped this year. The drop was slight, less than $1500 down to $834,045 but in comparison the bottom-quartile average was stable, which is the market that had fallen across other sales.

This is perhaps a reflection of the particularly select nature of Inglis Easter, the catalogue for which is around half of Magic Millions’ Book 1 in January.

Chart: The average price amongst the most expensive 25 per cent of horses at the Inglis Australian Easter Yearling Sale

Fillies vs. colts

An interesting observation has been the market’s appetite for colts. Costing 27 per cent more than their counterparts on average in 2019, that percentage more than halved each year until 2022, when colts became cheaper ($18,636 cheaper on average).

That trend continued and they were slightly cheaper again this year, averaging $25,200 less than the fillies.

This year’s sale finished with 16 millionaire colts compared to 10 fillies, and that favour is roughly representative of the sex preference in the top quarter of the market.

Whilst deep-pocketed stallion syndicates are competing for the most attractive colts, they have historically been more numerous amongst the top end of the Easter market. However, a talking point at this year’s Easter sale was the increasing consideration for the residual value of the best-credentialled fillies in a more uncertain market.

Perhaps it’s that consideration that’s behind the market move which saw the top-end colts’ premium drop to its lowest figure in five years.

Chart: The average premium paid for a colt amongst the most expensive 25 per cent of horses at the Inglis Australian Easter Yearling Sale

Concentration of power

One inescapable theme of this year’s sale was the novel domination of Yulong on the buyer's bench. Their first foray into the Easter market was hard to miss, buying 23 yearlings outright for a total of $11,685,000 (the only buyer to pass $10 million), and two more in partnership.

Surpassing Tom Magnier, who spent $10.3 million on six in 2022 (but just $3.7 million on three this year), the key difference in Yulong’s top buyer spend was their average of just under $500,000, compared to Magnier’s $1.72 million in 2022.

Regardless of who claims top spot amongst the buyers, Inglis will be pleased that there were 58 separate names against the top 25 per cent of the market this year, up from 54 last year.

Also consistent over the past five years is the number of different sires represented at the top, which has fluctuated between 20 and 23 since 2019, with a similarly even representation seen amongst vendors across the board.