Cover image courtesy of Darley
Royal Ascot stands as the centrepiece of the first half of the UK flat season. A festival draped in royalty and pageantry, and one that can contribute to the early crowning of a new stallion success.
It was Blue Point (Ire) who claimed his first global stakes winner at Royal Ascot, with 20/1 shot Big Evs (Ire), winning the Listed Windsor Castle S. on the Wednesday. Prescient perhaps, that a sire renowned for his two back-to-back Royal Ascot race wins - the G1 King's Stand S. and G1 Diamond Jubilee S. within the same week in 2019 - should enhance his growing global reputation as a sire on that same turf.
The result of Big Evs will no doubt be of interest to breeders and owners across the Southern Hemisphere and those within the halls of Darley Australia, where the son of Shamardal (USA) was leading first-crop shuttle sire by total yearling value across Australian and New Zealand yearling sales this year.
Blue Point (Ire) | Standing at Darley
Blue Point's first crop were well-received at the European yearling sales in 2022, and that optimism continued in the Southern Hemisphere as Blue Point returned as the leading first-season sire by average at the Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale ($378,125), the leading first-season sire by average at the Inglis Australian Easter Yearling Sale ($300,000) and delivered a record result sale-topper at the Magic Millions Perth Yearling Sale ($350,000) - the first time since 2016 that a shuttle stallion had delivered the sale-topper through the sale ring in Perth.
Whilst Blue Point led the first-season shuttle sires in terms of total yearling spend, he was beaten to the achievement of top yearling spend by average by another Darley resident, former European Champion 2-Year-Old Too Darn Hot (GB). Too Darn Hot contributed a yearling average of $164,000 across all Southern Hemisphere sales in 2023, comparative to Blue Point's $151,050 returns.
| Offered | 70 | 63 |
| Aggregate | $10,573,500 | $10,332,000 |
| Average | $151,050 | $164,000 |
Table: 2023 Australasian yearling sales data for Too Darn Hot (GB) and Blue Point (Ire)
Australian and New Zealand-based purchasers will be casting their eyes up to the European season, with a view on early insight into the prospective chances into their yearling purchases this year. As the European season enters its halfway stage, let us take a comparative look at the performance of the two Darley residents, and how that may form the outlook of investments across Australia and New Zealand.
Blue Point made a rapid-fire start to his first-season sire campaign in the UK and Ireland, with three of the first five of his runners entering the winners' enclosure on their first starts. He's continued on that fine form and leads the First Season Sire table in Great Britain, with 14 winners from 45 runners, a 31 per cent winners to runners ratio. The aforementioned Big Evs stands as the only stakes winner, but notably the only stakes winner by a first-season sire across all of the Northern Hemisphere.
Rosemont Alliance, Suman Hedge and Annabel Neasham picked up the highest-priced Blue Point yearling at the sales this year, going to $900,000 for a colt offered by Segenhoe Stud at the Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling sale. Out of black-type mare Bumbasina (Ire) (Canford Cliffs {Ire}), dam of star of the west Amelia’s Jewel (Siyouni {Fr}), he would have every chance of making a strong start for connections in Australia. Further notable purchases include a Bhima Thoroughbreds colt out of Sistonic (Bel Esprit), picked up by Ciaron Maher Bloodstock for $750,000 at the same Magic Millions sale.
Lot 690 - Blue Point (Ire) x Bumbasina (Ire) (colt), the highest-priced Blue Point (Ire) yearling sold this year | Image courtesy of Magic Millions.
In contrast, are the fortunes of fellow Darley shuttler and first-season Sire hopeful Too Darn Hot. Standing at Darley Kelvinside for the exact same $44,000 (inc GST) fee as Blue Point, he has enjoyed a somewhat quieter start out of the blocks. Comparative to Blue Point's 45 starters, Too Darn Hot has seen 11 progeny start on the track across Great Britain and Ireland, three returning as winners, a winners to runners ratio of 27.27 per cent.
Progeny of Too Darn Hot were well-received across yearling sales in both Europe and Australia in 2022/23, with a colt out of the G2 Blue Diamond Prelude (Fillies) winner and subsequent feature race runner-up Enbihaar (Magnus) being the highest-value first-season sire purchase at the Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale in January. Purchased for $1 million in partnership between McKeever Bloodstock/Watership Down/Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott Racing, you would imagine she will be lined up for a tilt at the same race in 2024.
Too Darn Hot (GB) | Standing at Darley
With limited sample sizes available so far in Europe, let’s look to the bloodstock market for guidance and also the ratings that we calculate at our start-up company, racing², to get a potential view on ability.
How did the market evaluate this crop?
The bloodstock market itself offers us a useful barometer on the quality of this crop of European 2-year-olds. We can glean insight from how the market evaluated them as foals back in 2021 and then again as yearlings in 2022. Of course, not all 2-year-olds that will make the track went through the ring as a foal or yearling, but it’s another set of information that can be additive in shaping our opinion.
Reviewing the average sales prices of foals offered as part of this European first-season sire crop back in 2021, it was Too Darn Hot leading the buying bench. With an average value in GBP of foals sold of £111,002 (AU$212,000). Blue Point was well clear of the rest with an average foal value of £83,142 (AU$158,800).
The yearling sales of 2022 held up that trend; Too Darn Hot and Blue Point held up the top two positions.
| Too Darn Hot | £111,002 | 1 |
| Blue Point | £83,142 | 2 |
| Ten Sovereigns | £49,912 | 3 |
| Magna Grecia | £49,516 | 4 |
| Advertise | £46,475 | 5 |
| Masar | £35,735 | 6 |
| Calyx | £35,488 | 7 |
| Invincible Army | £28,398 | 8 |
| Soldiers Call | £21,075 | 9 |
| Inns of Court | £19,257 | 10 |
Table: Top 10 first-season sires in Europe by average foal price in 2021
| Too Darn Hot | £118,209 | 1 |
| Blue Point | £98,592 | 2 |
| Advertise | £62,823 | 3 |
| Ten Sovereigns | £62,008 | 4 |
| Magna Grecia | £53,734 | 5 |
| Masar | £50,551 | 6 |
| Calyx | £49,091 | 7 |
| Invincible Army | £43,906 | 8 |
| Land Force | £32,790 | 9 |
| Inns Of Court | £29,366 | 10 |
| Soldiers Call | £28,778 | 11 |
Table: Top 10 first-season sires in Europe by average yearling price in 2022
How did their yearlings rate? Evaluations from our Biomechanics model
We try to analyse all yearlings that go through the sales ring across the major Northern and Southern Hemisphere sales, using software that enables biomechanic analysis. Using this we’re able to take a view on the overall forecast quality of a certain sire crop.
The below table is a breakdown of the results from our biomechanics model, notably the yearlings that we analysed over the course of the European yearling sales in 2022 and the expected ratings of the yearlings that we saw. Too Darn Hot stands atop the rankings by some margin, with the algorithm evaluating 12/54 yearlings as having the potential of 100+ level performers. We saw a larger proportion of Blue Point yearlings, 95 in total, with nine (9.47 per cent) projected as 100+ or stakes-level performers. Where do these ratings come from and how did we get to nine elite horses for Blue Point and 12 for Too Darn Hot? Across all yearling sales globally we use motion tracking and biomechanics software to evaluate the gait and kinematic output of yearlings. These are compared against a historic database of 5000 previously sold yearlings, their subsequent ratings achieved and their gait profile as a yearling. This allows us to evaluate their biomechanic profile and try to forecast their ability level.
The increased number of soldiers that Blue Point has on the ground - 121 foals in his 2021 crop for Too Darn Hot versus 158 in the 2021 crop for Blue Point - means that he has a greater chance of a European First Season Sire title. Albeit, we expect that further quality progeny by Too Darn Hot are being prepared to make their track debuts in the second half of the season.
| 1 | Too Darn Hot | 54 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 22.22% | 25.93% | 31.48% |
| 2 | Blue Point | 95 | 9 | 15 | 23 | 9.47% | 15.79% | 24.21% |
| 3 | Inns Of Court | 78 | 7 | 14 | 20 | 8.97% | 17.95% | 25.64% |
| 4 | Ten Sovereigns | 75 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 8.00% | 9.33% | 14.67% |
| 5 | Advertise | 68 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 7.35% | 11.76% | 14.71% |
| 6 | Calyx | 56 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 5.36% | 16.07% | 21.43% |
| 7 | Masar | 56 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3.57% | 8.93% | 12.50% |
| 8 | Land Force | 60 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3.33% | 6.67% | 8.33% |
| 9 | Magna Grecia | 67 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2.99% | 5.97% | 10.45% |
| 10 | Invincible Army | 55 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1.82% | 5.45% | 9.09% |
| 11 | Soldiers Call | 56 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.79% | 1.79% | 3.57% |
Table: A racing² biomechanic analysis table of the top 10 first-season sires in Europe by percentage of 100+-scoring progeny
Whilst Blue Point has enjoyed a remarkable start in Europe, we expect to see progeny of Too Darn Hot starting to come around the curve in the second part of the season, which would make for an exciting tussle between the two Darley residents.
