Analyse This: Unpacking James McDonald's Path to Greatness

5 min read
In just over a decade since moving permanently to Sydney, James McDonald is crafting an astonishing legacy in the Australian riding ranks. Securing his 90th career Group 1 win aboard Zougotcha (Zoustar) in last weekend’s G1 Coolmore Classic is yet another reminder of McDonald's status as one of the most exceptional riders we've ever witnessed.

Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything

Known for his eloquence and poise, McDonald readily acknowledges the invaluable support of those who have played pivotal roles in his journey to success. Grateful for the guidance of figures like John O’Shea, Sir Peter Vela, Chris Waller, and his parents, McDonald exemplifies humility alongside his achievements.

Despite amassing over $250 million in prize money for owners within a relatively short career span, McDonald is quick to emphasise that his success has been anything but instantaneous.

Following his victory as New Zealand’s Champion Apprentice in 2007/08 with 89 wins, McDonald catapulted himself into the spotlight and began envisioning ambitious goals.

Sir Peter Vela, Principal of Pencarrow Stud and a member of the New Zealand Racing Hall of Fame, has been pivotal in McDonald's journey. Reflecting on their initial meeting, Vela vividly remembers recognising McDonald's extraordinary potential from day one.

“He (James McDonald) was the leading apprentice jockey and I did the presentation. I knew the boy's family, but I'd never met him. He came up to get his prize and he thanked me, looked me in the eye and said, I can't wait to ride in the blue and white hoops. And I thought, this boy's going to go places”.

“He came up to get his prize and he thanked me, looked me in the eye and said, I can't wait to ride in the blue and white hoops. And I thought, this boy's going to go places”. - Sir Peter Vela

It was a bold statement, but Sir Peter Vela was proven right. Seeking a top-notch rider to bolster Sydney's ranks, leading trainer John O'Shea identified McDonald for a brief stint during the 2011 off-season. Making an immediate impact, McDonald piloted two winners during a mid-winter Randwick meeting, one for O'Shea and another for Anthony Cummings.

Although James McDonald's career began auspiciously, it wasn't without its challenges for the young Kiwi.

Balancing his time between Australia and New Zealand before ultimately relocating permanently in 2012, McDonald encountered difficulties adapting to the Sydney riding scene. Initially securing only 20 wins in the 2011/12 season and 53 wins in the 2012/13 season, McDonald openly acknowledges the hurdles he faced during this period.

“It wasn't smooth sailing by all means,” McDonald said. “I was actually really lucky I had John (O’Shea) backing me because there were a lot of owners in his stable that didn't want to put me on and he stood firm”.

James McDonald | Image courtesy of Ashlea Brennan

McDonald then piloted horses like Astern, Contributor, and Hartnell (GB) (Authorised {Ire}) to victory for O’Shea in the Godolphin blue and remains deeply appreciative of his enduring support.

In terms of pivotal horses in his career, it was a New Zealand native that McDonald credits for his success. Partnering with the Murray Baker-trained Dundeel (NZ) in all 10 of his career wins, McDonald recalls a defining moment in the horse’s career that significantly influenced his own.

“It’s all about opportunity. I think Dundeel fast-tracked that process, because he captured everyone's imagination by winning the Rosehill Guineas by eight lengths and a Derby by eight lengths. I suppose he was the horse that led me to a lot of opportunities”.

An impressive trajectory

McDonald's Performance Season by Season

2010/11818%44$585,775
2011/122016%123$2,050,270
2012/135314%390$6,975,310
2013/1412618%684$14,055,350
2014/1514422%649$13,409,727
2015/1611619%598$13,206,210
2016/173421%162$5,603,400
2017/181516%94$1,001,608
2018/1913721%643$16,303,015
2019/2011719%631$17,744,662
2020/2116325%659$20,927,086
2021/2214723%639$36,129,235
2022/2314522%652$34,288,605

Table: James McDonald's performance per season

While McDonald's initial seasons posed challenges, a decade later, he stands as one of the most exceptional riders to ever grace our racetracks.

With average annual prize money earnings of $14 million, McDonald boasts a World Jockey Title, numerous Group 1 victories spanning three continents, and is nearing 2200 career wins.

Maintaining a career winning strike rate of 19 per cent, McDonald is firmly on course to cementing his legacy as one of the finest jockeys in history.

McDonald vs Oliver: A comparison of greatness

Putting McDonald's exceptional trajectory into context, we took a look at his top level win rate in comparison to the Australian jockey who holds the record with 129 Group 1 victories; Damien Oliver.

While it's important to acknowledge that there were fewer Group 1 races on offer when Oliver began his riding career, the level of Group 1 success achieved by James McDonald is unparalleled.

Both McDonald and Oliver embarked on their riding careers at the age of 15 and claimed the Champion Apprentice Jockey title in their respective regions.

101
201
330
453
598
614
764
866
924
1063
1140
1266
1396
1418
15511
16414
17011
Total6790

Table: A comparative analysis of Group 1 wins per year between James McDonald and Damien Oliver

While Oliver had to wait two years for his first Group 1 victory, McDonald secured his maiden elite win in his debut season as a two-kilogram apprentice.

Fast forward seventeen years, which includes his time serving a ban for breaching betting regulations, McDonald boasts an impressive tally of 90 Group 1 victories. By the same stage of his career, Hall of Fame jockey Damien Oliver had notched up 67 top-tier wins.

Anamoe's eight Group 1 triumphs represent almost 10 percent of McDonald's Group 1 victories, while Oliver also partnered with the exceptional Schillaci (Salieri {USA}), who claimed six Group 1 wins, constituting five percent of Oliver's total of 129 top-flight victories.

After a distinguished 35-year riding career, the legendary Oliver retired last December with just over $260 million in prize money earnings.

While acknowledging factors such as inflation and improved opportunities, it's noteworthy that McDonald is only $8 million away from matching Oliver's career total earnings, achieved in just 17 years of riding.

Always forward-focused, James McDonald doesn't pause to glorify in his achievements; instead, he sets his sights on the next goal. Asked of his future ambitions, McDonald is firm on emulating Oliver’s record:

“I'd love to break the all-time record for the most Group 1s.”

“I'd love to break the all-time record for the most Group 1s”. - James McDonald

But first, McDonald eagerly anticipates an opportunity to repay one of his esteemed mentors, Sir Peter Vela, part-owner of Switzerland (Snitzel), the second-favourite contender in this weekend’s prestigious G1 Golden Slipper.

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James McDonald