Cover image courtesy of Inglis
Over the past 10 years, there have been 56 Group 1 winning individual Inglis Easter graduates. Of the million-dollar graduates just four have claimed Group 1 success including Stronger (Not A Single Doubt), G1 Golden Slipper winner Estijaab (Snitzel), Mustaaqeem (Redoute’s Choice) and Wandjina (Snitzel).
However, when taking a look at the statistics of stakes winners of million-dollar graduates, some may be surprised by the results.
Million-dollar investments reap rewards
Over the past decade, the sale has produced over 300 stakes winners, boasting an overall seven per cent stakes winners to horses sold ratio.
Approximately 4000 yearlings have been offered since 2013, with an average price of approximately $325,000 per offering.
| 2023 | 1 % | 8 % | 26 |
| 2022 | 3 % | 5 % | 20 |
| 2021 | 5 % | 9 % | 23 |
| 2020 | 10 % | 0 % | 7 |
| 2019 | 3 % | 11 % | 19 |
| 2018 | 11 % | 23 % | 22 |
| 2017 | 7 % | 18 % | 17 |
| 2016 | 8 % | 22 % | 9 |
| 2015 | 10 % | 10 % | 10 |
| 2014 | 10 % | 29 % | 7 |
| 2013 | 9 % | 22 % | 9 |
| Total | 7 % | 13 % | 169 |
Table: Inglis Easter Yearling Sale stakes-winners by sale/price category (2013-2023)
The upper tier of this sale, represented by yearlings fetching $1,000,000 or more, comprises just four percent (169 sold) of all yearlings sold.
Of the yearlings to have fetched $1,000,000 or more, 13 per cent have gone on to win stakes races. In comparison, yearlings that have fetched less than $1,000,000 in the sales ring achieved a stakes winners to runners rate of seven per cent.
This comes as no surprise to Inglis CEO Sebastian Hutch who emphasised the results as a reflection of an advancement in our marketplace.
Sebastian Hutch | Image courtesy of Inglis
“More often than not, the sale price is a reflection on the regard in which a particular yearling is held by the participants in the market.
“More often than not, the sale price is a reflection on the regard in which a particular yearling is held by the participants in the market.” - Sebastian Hutch
“At a sale like Easter, where the savviest market participants are most engaged, ultimately, it's a reflection that the people who are perceived to be or have the best records as purchasers. More often than not, it's a compliment as to the merit of a particular yearling.
“As we know, the yearlings don't know what they cost. Ultimately, their sale process has little or no bearing on how they perform.
“But when they go on to make a lot of money, it's a reflection that the people who know best thought that they were the horses who were the best for them”.
Advancements driving success
The industry has witnessed significant advancements in veterinary technology, pedigree analytics and gait analysis over the past 20 years, and Hutch noted the influences of such advancements on the racetrack performance of million-dollar yearlings.
“Ultimately, I think it's just a reflection of the fact that we become a more advanced, sophisticated marketplace, as you would expect with the passage of time given the volume of investment.
“Ultimately, I think it's just a reflection of the fact that we become a more advanced, sophisticated marketplace, as you would expect with the passage of time given the volume of investment.” - Sebastian Hutch
“People have become more professional in terms of how they approach the inspection process, how they utilise data to make decisions around their investment processes, probably advances in veterinary science, have made things more sophisticated in terms of what people are identifying pre and post-sale and managing the horses subsequently.”
Contrasting Perspectives
While it wasn’t surprising to Sebastian Hutch, experienced Bloodstock figure Duncan Grimley felt the opposite stating, “I'm actually a bit gobsmacked by the figures to be honest”.
Asked for a potential explanation for the surprising figures, Grimley pointed out the increasing investment of stallion syndicates and focus on early season races that many expensive purchases comprise the fields.
“There's a lot of million-dollar horses being bought as two or early 3-year-olds, and there's a higher proportion of stakes races for those horses. With the stallion syndicates as they are, they're trying to buy Slipper horses, Coolmore S., or maybe even a Guineas horse”.
Duncan Grimley | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Adding to that note, Grimley suggested the notion that many 2-year-old style trainers are either purchasing or receiving many of these horses which may have an influence on the statistics as they are afforded an opportunity to win stakes events earlier in their careers than the average horse.
“I think with the million-dollar horses, with the exception of Chris Waller, a lot of them are being bought by renowned 2-year-old type trainers. So they've got an advantage”.
“I suppose it's a little bit easier to win the 2-year-old stakes race if you're gearing up that way for that type of model.
“There’s been a change in the mindset of the purchasers that are buying these horses and the reason why they're buying them”.
The long-term effects of that change in mindset remains to be seen with Grimley noting: “we have got the reputation of being the best breeders of sprinter and milers in the world, so that’s probably going to extend even further into the future.
“Now, whether that's a good thing or a bad thing, I'm not quite sure. If we're all chasing utopia for a Golden Slipper winner, and whether that's going to be good long term for the industry, I've got my doubts.”
“We have got the reputation of being the best breeders of sprinter and milers in the world, so that’s probably going to extend even further into the future.” - Duncan Grimley
While the increasing occurrence of million-dollar lots at feature sales may be viewed positively by some, Grimley's concerns highlight the complexity of the industry's evolution and its potential ramifications.
Ultimately, the significance of this trend remains subjective and depends on individual perspectives within the industry but one thing is for sure, the trend looks set to continue.
