Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Ratings suggest the 2024 edition of the G2 Run To The Rose (1200 metres) last Saturday was one of the strongest in recent times.
Growing Empire (Zoustar) looks the real deal after taking out the Posiedon S. at Flemington but is he a deserved favourite for the G1 Coolmore Stud S.? And can Dawn Service (Justify {USA}) follow in the footsteps of Griff (Trapeze Artist) and become the second horse in as many years to take out the Exford Plate–Caulfield Guineas double?
There’s plenty to talk about in the first edition of ‘Sectionally Speaking’ – an in depth look at how the colts and fillies around the country are performing on the clock.
All eyes on the Run To The Rose
Traffic Warden (Street Boss {USA}) gave Godolphin their fifth Run To The Rose in six years when sweeping down the centre of the track to produce a rating that has him up there with the better colts to win the Rosehill feature.
He followed in the footsteps of his former stablemates Bivouac (2019), Anamoe (2021), In Secret (I Am Invincible) (2022) and Cylinder (2023) by winning the Run To The Rose and the question now is can he, like them, train on to win a Group 1 against the older horses?
Traffic Warden | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
The best indicator is to analyse the times and then stack them up against what the older horses are doing. The son of Street Boss (USA) stopped the clock at 1.09:36 last weekend. This time is 1.7l faster than the class benchmark for Group 2 3-year-old races over 1200 metres at Rosehill. Our internal ratings show only Rothfire (Rothesay) has gone better in the last five years and that Traffic Warden’s rating last Saturday puts him about 2l off our top rating sprinters currently.
Rosehill on Saturday was a tough day to lead. Only one leader prevailed and only two winners used inside lane eight all day. The track was very much conducive to horses that could settle off pace and make their run down the centre of the track.
So, when analysing the Run To The Rose we look for a horse that may have been disadvantaged by the daily track pattern. Linebacker (NZ) is one of them. The Super Seth colt was snagged back to last from the outside gate and walked through his first 600 metres clocking an average 200-metre split of 12.19s, which is more than 8l slower than what we expect from horses in this grade over 1200 metres at Rosehill. That’s paved the way for him to produce the best last 400 metres and 200 metres of the race, both these splits ranked two for the meeting. But what gives this finish even more credibility is the colt used lane two to make his run.
Linebacker (NZ) | Image courtesy of Ashlea Brennan
Results from the meeting show this was inferior ground. Four of the last five Golden Rose winners have come through the Run To The Rose and while Traffic Warden is the favourite with the bookies, Linebacker looks a huge chance of turning the tables with a better run and for punters, the $9 has some appeal.
Tropicus (Too Darn Hot {GB}) caught the eye as well. His closing sectional of 11.12s was almost identical to Linebacker’s 11.08s albeit he was out in the better ground. Still, this son of Too Darn Hot (GB) doesn’t quite have the zippiness of Linebacker but could be the miler to emerge from this group of 3-year-olds and therefore a Caulfield Guineas might be a handsome target race this spring.
Down at Flemington the Listed Posiedon S. (1100 metres) was taken out by Growing Empire, who is now four from five and the current favourite for the G1 Coolmore Stud S. (1200 metres) in November.
Growing Empire stopped the clock at 1.06:24, which is 3.9l slower than the class benchmark but there are reasons for this. The first 500 metres of the race was covered in a sluggish 30.84s or 4.4l slower than benchmark. This race shape and closing splits tells us a bit about this exciting colt by Zoustar, who himself won a G1 Coolmore Stud S. giving jockey Jim Cassidy his 100th Group 1 winner.
What we learned about Growing Empire is he doesn’t have a sharp turn of foot but more the ability to sustain a high cruising speed. He will win races by running his opposition into the ground as opposed to out sprinting them. Its why he didn’t break the clock on Saturday. But this ability is incredibly useful as these types rarely get dictated to in terms of pace.
They tend to be the ones that dictate the pace and this is a powerful position to be in. There is no better example of this than Pride Of Jenni (Pride Of Dubai). And while we don’t expect Growing Empire to be a mad frontrunner, we do expect he will thrive in fast run races. His Posiedon S. win rated alongside recent winners Ranch Hand (Fastnet Rock) (2021) and September Run (Exceed And Excel) (2020), the latter went on to win the G1 Coolmore Stud S.
Dawn Service | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Still at Flemington, Dawn Service demonstrated a terrific example of sustained speed in the Listed Exford Plate (1400 metres). He went through his first 800 metres almost 5l faster than benchmark and his overall time of 1.25:64 is 2l faster than the benchmark for 3-year-old Listed races. His win rated just over 1l better than Griff’s victory 12 months ago.
Super fillies set for epic Tea Rose clash
This Saturday’s G2 Tea Rose S. (1400 metres) at Randwick boasts a mouth-watering clash between three super fillies – Autumn Glow (The Autumn Sun), Manaal (Tassort) and Ameena (Tassort).
Autumn Glow smashed the class average for BM72 by more than 6l on debut. She then took the herculean step up to the G3 Up And Coming S. where the daughter of The Autumn Sun beat the class benchmark by 1.2l recording a slick 11.46s for her final 200 metres suggesting she has more to come.
Gallery: Super fillies set for the Tea Rose clash
The rating she produced there suggests Autumn Glow has a 1.5l advantage over her rivals and providing she doesn’t go backwards; we expect her to be winning again.
Keep an eye out for Scarlet Oak (Kermadec {NZ}) if she heads to the Tibbie S. (1400 metres) at Newcastle on Friday. Her trial data suggests she’s come back 2 to 3l better and this could be the launching pad to bigger things this spring. The $4.50 in early markets looks a very good price if she heads that way.
