Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
In Sydney, Autumn Glow (The Autumn Sun) extended her unbeaten run to three when she took out the G2 Tea Rose S. (1400 metres).
The Randwick feature was the most anticipated race of the day with Autumn Glow taking on G1 Sires Produce winner Manaal and Ameena, both by Tassort, who got within 0.1l of Manaal at their previous encounter in the G2 Furious S.
Jockey James McDonald made the right move banging Autumn Glow on speed as the tempo set by Manaal was an absolute crawl. She averaged 12.36s per 200 metres split through the first 800 metres, which is 8.6l slower than G2 benchmark for the fillies. Autumn Glow’s winning time of 1.22:88 was the slowest of 4 x 1400-metre races on the day and the slow tempo meant her overall time was 3.7l slower than G2 benchmark. She demonstrated a good turn of foot for a filly that was having her third run at this distance range. Her last 400 metres was 5.5l quicker than benchmark and she has now shown both sharp speed and sustained speed, which will make her awfully hard to toss in the G1 Flight S. (1600 metres) on October 5.
One horse that could spring a surprise there is Snow In May (The Autumn Sun). She produced the fastest last 400 metres and 200 metres of the day, which given we had an Everest lead-up in the form of The Shorts, this was quite the feat and a sign of a very promising horse. It was only her third start having won a Wagga Maiden and Class 1 at Newcastle and she’s smashed the clock. If she can maintain that sharp acceleration at a mile then Autumn Glow might not have the Flight S. in the bag just yet.
Speaking of The Everest, I Am Me ( I Am Invincible) made it two from two this prep taking out the G2 The Shorts (1100 metres). A slow tempo played into the hands of this nippy mare that settled third in the run before staving off a hurtling Stefi Magnetica (All Too Hard), who clocked the fastest last 800 metres and 600 metres of the day with only Snow In May going quicker up the straight. It was close to Stefi Magnetica’s career peak rating suggesting she has come back even better. Further continuation of this upward spiral in her ratings would see her in the mix for The Everest.
Is Angel Capital better suited for the Guineas than the Coolmore?
The fact Angel Capital (Harry Angel {Ire}) clocked the fastest last 1200 metres of the day at Caulfield suggests the 3-year-old should tackle the Guineas next start.
The chat in media circles since Saturday has centred around whether Clint McDonald’s charge should freshen-up and head to the G1 Coolmore Stud S. (1200 metres) or stay on the more traditional path and tackle the Caulfield Guineas (1600 metres).
One of the best indicators a horse will handle a rise in distance is not a strong last 200 metres but rather a strong last 800 metres, or further. This is because a “sustained surge” as I like to call it is a better guide than a “sharp sprint”.
In Saturday’s G2 Caulfield Guineas Prelude, Angel Capital, ran his last 1200 metres in 1.10:08, the fastest of the day. His strong close ensured he beat the class benchmark for the 1400-metre journey and his winning time was identical to the highly touted Another Wil (Street Boss {USA}.)
When horses fail at a distance, they will often show indicators prior. The most common is they fail to beat the class benchmark over the shorter trips. This is often coupled by fooling punters with slick late splits. We see them charging to the line and the optical illusion is such that this horse must want further. But all the horse has done is sprint quickly off a dawdling tempo – hardly indicative of one looking for a longer trip.
The tempo of Saturday’s Guineas Prelude was moderate with Wanaruah (Snitzel) going through his first 800 metres at an average speed of 12.25s per 200 metres split. This is 1.9l slower than average for the grade. From the 600 metres to the 400 metres Angel Capital’s split ranked 4th for the race then he produced the 2nd fastest split between the 400 metres and 200 metres before producing the best last 200 metres of the race. His sustained speed prevailed and its worth noting he made his run in lane three, which appeared inferior going at this point of the meeting. Three of the last five races were won by horses in lane 11 or wider.
If there was one horse not suited by the race shape, then it would be Red Aces (Dundeel {NZ}). This galloper from Nick Ryan’s yard posted flat sectionals. That means, he showed zero dash but didn’t weaken, which is often a sign a horse needs ground. Off what we saw in the Prelude, he will relish 2000 metres or further and might be a genuine Victoria Derby prospect in a few weeks’ time.
The Listed Jim Maloney S. (1400 metres) was more than a second slower than the Guineas Prelude. The winner, Lilac (Justify {USA}), was 3.5l slower than the class benchmark but the race was really nothing more than a dash up the straight. The first four in running finished in the top five with Declichy Boulevard (Snitzel) coming from 8th to finish 2nd. She was by far the highlight of the race clocking 22.98s for her last 400 metres, which is almost 6l faster than benchmark and ranked 11th for the day. But as we said above, a fast close off a slow tempo doesn’t mean you want further so we’d remain on the fence about her in a fast run mile. Keep an eye out for Femminile (Dundeel {NZ}), who finished second last but had zero hope in a race of this shape. Her breeding suggests she will relish much further and her sectionals were flat. Pop her into your blackbook as a potential Oaks filly.
