Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Via Sistina’s (Ire) (Pride Of Dubai) win has rocked the ratings world with Chris Waller’s mare surpassing all four of Winx’s (Street Cry {Ire}) Cox Plate marks.
Not a single database has a contrasting view. Some say the gap is less than the 2.5l I have between Winx’s career peak and what Via Sistina did on the weekend.
No matter how you slice and dice it, this was the greatest Cox Plate win we’ve seen. She beat the average Cox Plate time by almost 11l and her last 400 metres was still quicker than the benchmark.
With 12 months of racing ahead of her, it's hard to see Waller running Via Sistina in the Melbourne Cup, a race that flattened his former champ Verry Elleegant (NZ) (Zed {NZ}).
The Geelong Cup rated 4l faster than usual making Onesmoothoperator (USA) (Dialed In {USA}) an appealing prospect. No doubt Buckaroo (GB) (Fastnet Rock) with the best last 200 metres of the Caulfield Cup will have admirers while Vauban (Fr) (Galiway {GB}) might be the forgotten horse. Willie Mullins’ charge started $5.50 last year yet they’re betting $10 as I write this. We have the 2024 Melbourne Cup an easier race to win than last year’s.
Saturday’s Moonee Valley meeting saw all 10 races won by horses in lanes two to seven and with just three of the 10 winners coming from 3l or more off the pace at the 600 metres.
Double Market, Bittercreek and Certain Rise ready for the step up to G1
With respect to the above the wins of Double Market (Castelvecchio) and Plenty Of Ammo (Rebel Raider) carry hidden merit. Double Market won the G2 Fillies Classic (1600 metres) beating the class benchmark by more than 1l. She came from 4l off the pace at the 600 metres and used lane six. Only Plenty Of Ammo won from a wider lane when she took out the G2 Crytal Mile (1600 metres) running bang on average time but looked to have some excuses for not going quicker. She was out in lane seven, the widest of any winner all day and it's worth noting she was only second-up. Suspect she is a Group 1 mare against her own sex while Double Market looks a Thousand Guineas horse to my eye.
Bittercreek (Snitzel) took out the G2 Red Anchor S. (1200 metres) and had the perfect race shape to back-up out of in this week’s G1 Coolmore Stud S. at Flemington. The Red Anchor field went through the first 600 metres nearly 5l slower than benchmark for the grade and it wasn’t until the 400 metres they got revved up. This is when Bittercreek put them to the sword clocking 23.16s for his last 400 metres, which ranked eighth for the day and only one winner went quicker, Baraqiel (Snitzel).
As good as he was, I preferred the win of Certain Rise (Written Tycoon), who ran faster overall time albeit entitled to. An imposing filly, she likes to roll on pace and dominate her opposition with sustained speed. This is a far better attribute than a sit and sprint style of horse. When you set the tempo, you’re dictating, you’re running the race to suit you. Certain Rise is a dictator, they march to her beat. The prospect of running in Group 1 races within her next five starts is a very real one.
Red Aces a genuine winning chance in the Victoria Derby
Speaking of horses graduating to Group 1 races, you might recall our discussion about Red Aces (Dundeel {NZ}) back on September 25.
“If there was one horse not suited by the race shape, then it would be Red Aces. This galloper from Nick Ryan’s yard posted flat sectionals. That means, he showed zero dash but didn’t weaken, which is often a sign a horse needs ground. Off what we saw in the (Guineas) Prelude, he will relish 2000 metres or further and might be a genuine Victoria Derby prospect in a few weeks’ time.”
Red Aces, who remains the only 3-year-old in the 2024 Melbourne Cup, won Saturday's G2 Moonee Valley Vase (2040 metres), his first victory at stakes level and will go into the Victoria Derby this weekend as a genuine winning chance.
Again, he displayed flat sectionals which was to be expected off the dawdling tempo where they went through the first 1400 metres almost 10l slower than benchamark. It’s the perfect race to back-up out of but he will have stiff competition from El Castello (Castelvechhio), who won the G1 Spring Champion S. (2000 metres) at Randwick.
These two horses are very similar in terms of producing flat sectionals. The rhetoric around El Castello not being a natural stayer is garbage. He shows every indication he is exactly that. His Spring Champion win rated only okay, but the moderate tempo prevents horses like this from running time. They excel in high pressure races where their flat sections are far more resourceful.
Belclare with the win of the day
Comedy (Snitzel) won the Listed Kirkham Plate (1000 metres) for the juveniles in 57.80s, which is a tad slower than average time but there looks to be scope for him and his stablemate, Gaeilge (Exceed And Exceel), who was runner-up.
Amazing Eagle (Capitalist) broke his maiden in the Listed Brian Crowley S. (1200 metres). The colt set a moderate tempo that was 1.2l slower than what we expect from this grade before staving off his rivals, the best of them Manos (Snitzel), who produced the best last 1000 metres of the day.
Last but certainly not least is The Invitation winner, Belclare (NZ) (Per Incanto {USA}), who produced the win of the day at Randwick. She smashed the class benchmark by nearly 5l and clocked a slick 22.60s for her final 400 metres, which is 3l faster than benchmark for the grade. She also clocked the second fastest last 1200 metres at the meeting.
