Cover image courtesy of Newgate

In the last decade, five stallions have won the Champion Australian Sire title; I Am Invincible (3), Written Tycoon, Snitzel (4), Street Cry (Ire), and Fastnet Rock. Of those, only I Am Invincible and Written Tycoon won champion First Season Sire. Both Snitzel and Fastnet Rock came second in their respective years, while Street Cry didn’t get his first Southern Hemisphere stakes winner until his first crop turned three.

Newgate Farm’s champions

Of the last four Champion First Season Sires, two have stood at Newgate Farm, being Russian Revolution and Extreme Choice, while Tassort came second last year to Too Darn Hot (GB).

“Clearly if you are the Champion First Season sire, you’re a lot better chance of being the real deal,” said Newgate Farm’s Henry Field.

“Extreme Choice is one of the most special stallions on the planet. He’s done it with virtually no opportunity. Russian Revolution was both Champion First Season and Champion Second Season sire.

“It’s interesting with him as his book of mares was a lot weaker in his third season at stud, then his racing results were awesome and he got a lift with his mare quality in his fifth book onwards.

“You’re a lot better chance of making the grade long term if you feature early.”

Extreme Choice won Champion First Season sire thanks to siring G1 Golden Slipper winner Stay Inside and Group 2 winner Tiger Of Malay with his first crop of juveniles. This crop now also features Group 1 winner Espiona, Group winners Extremely Lucky, Extreme Warrior, and three Listed winners.

“He might not ever be Australian Champion Sire due to his low numbers, but he’s the best by every other metric. He has four stallions at stud, with three of them Group 1 winners, from around 100 runners. He’s clearly considered to be one of the best of all time, and is only the second horse in the history to have sired a Golden Slipper winner and a Melbourne Cup winner, and he’s done this with less than 100 runners.”

As it stands on December 12, 2024, Extreme Choice has 106 runners for 13 individual stakes winners who have won 24 stakes races between them.

“If Russian Revolution had had the same quality of mares in years three and four as in years one and two, then he’d be doing better now. His mare quality has lifted and we are confident he’ll have a massive resurgence.”

His current yearlings will be his fifth crop, and Russian Revolution has 18 stakes winners from 303 runners. “He would be the smartest option for yearling buyers this season as his mare quality is higher but he’ll be competitive value in the market.”

The last decade of winners

Of the last 10 Champion First Season sires, Hinchinbrook, Pierro, Zoustar, and Russian Revolution also won Champion Second Season sire.

Table: Champion First Season sires by season

“You don’t have to feature as a first season sire to be an elite sire, look at Encosta De Lago, Fastnet Rock, Savabeel, So You think, and High Chaparral. There’s plenty of stallions that come out with their 3-year-olds, like Zabeel in particular was finished commercially until he got his first three and 4-year-olds,” said Coolmore Stud’s Colm Santry.

“There are an awful lot of leading sires who came alive when they started knocking out a lot of good 3-year-olds. For me, personally, it’s more important that you are the leading second season sire than the first, for long term stallion success. Horses who can win the bigger 3-year-old races are the marker of success, and you need to sire high class 3-year-olds to be a top stallion.”

It's an interesting point, as I Am Invincible only sired his first juvenile Group 1 winner last season with Move To Strike.

“Opportunity is everything in this game. The sires who get large numbers thrive, and there’s a lot of evidence that numbers and quality influence these lists dramatically.”

“Pierro, and Zoustar are knocking on the door to be champions long term from that list. Pride Of Dubai has had a big season too. The thing is they all emerged on the scene with their 3-year-olds and have cemented themselves as leading sires.”

Table: Champion First, Second and Third Season sires by season

Pierro has 38 stakes winners of 73 stakes races, and he had six Group 1 winners including top 3-year-olds G1 Spring Champion S. and G1 Randwick Guineas winner Shadow Hero, G1 Australian Derby winner Levendi, and G1 Victoria Oaks winner Pinot.

Zoustar has 59 stakes winners, 13 in his first crop, and his nine Group 1 winners include Champion 3YO Filly Sunlight, G1 Thousand Guineas winner Joliestar, and G1 Coolmore Stud S. winner Ozzmosis.

“Pride Of Dubai has been highly very sought after this year with owner breeders and commercial breeders who recognise that he represents great value. The market is fickle and isn’t always right. It doesn’t get it right all the time, and horses like Pride Of Dubai and So You Think and Pierro aren’t always seen as hot by the market.”

Pride Of Dubai served over 140 mares in each of his first five seasons at stud, then dropped only 30 and 54 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, but with Bella Nipotina, Deny Knowledge (Ire), and Pride Of Jenni all flying his flag this season and last, he covered 102 mares in 2023. The son of Street Cry (Ire) has 23 stakes winners and his other Group 1 winners are Dubai Honour (Ire) and Desert Lightning (NZ).

A self-fulfilling prophecy?

“Of the names on those lists, the majority have gone on to be important stallions, even if they didn’t win a major title, there are some great names on that list,” said Field.

Given that these lists probably influence the commercial market as well as give an indication of long term success, how much effort do stud masters put into that first book of mares?

“At the end of the day, when they retire to stud, most horses will cover their best book in year one,” said Field. “They are commercially exciting and you usually get more mares than you can take, so as a stud master, you can pick and choose the quality of mare to some degree. Extreme Choice was very unique as the average value of the mares he bred was miniscule.”

But does winning the title make a difference? “Yes. Russian Revolution got his best book after he was Champion First Season sire, in contrast to the rather ordinary books he served in years three and four.

“Very few stallions in the world are so extraordinary that mare quality doesn’t matter. A few like Northern Dancer, Extreme Choice, Redoute’s Choice, but that’s what makes them different to other leading sires.”

How to determine a leading sire?

Looking at the idea of leading sires from the other angle, how do you determine a leading sire outside of winning an Australian Champion Sire title. In the last 10 seasons, there have been 28 individual stallions who’ve taken up the 100 spots created by the top 10 in 10 years, and Snitzel is the only sire in the last 10 years who has been in the top 10 of the Australian Champion Sire list every year. Snitzel came second to Stratum on the First Season Sire list of 2009/10.

Written Tycoon has featured in the top 10 for nine of the last 10 seasons, and readers would be hard-pressed to argue that any horse of these 28 were not a leading sire across the entirety of their careers.

Table: Stallions by their number of years featured in the Top 10 Sires list

Perhaps it’s not the winning of the title that matters, but that most leading sires were there or there-abouts in those first few years at stud. Some, like Pride Of Dubai, took a while to find their feet, but that reflects the journey of his sire too.

Generally, it looks like the market is correct in paying attention to these lists.

Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything

Equinome is a world leader in equine genetics research, and their Speed Gene Test has a 90 per cent accuracy in determining the best distance for a racehorse. Owned by Zinto Labs, an animal genetics research company, Equinome continues to push into the science of Thoroughbred genetics.

The Speed Gene test

“We launched our first DNA test in 2010. The speed gene test was the first time anyone in the world had identified a gene connected to a particular trait in Thoroughbreds. It’s highly predictive of best race distance and we found that a single gene has a massive influence on one trait,” said Donal Ryan.

The basic speed gene test gives the user three outcomes for their horse:

C:C Sprint/Mile Types

C:T Middle Distance Types

T:T Staying Types

“Since then the technology has developed rapidly, and now we have a suite of tests which are more complex. They look at a wide range of genes determining health and performance. We also provide genomic research in a range of other species, which are mostly racing species, as well as some conservation and companion animals.

“We have a team with a set of capabilities that we can apply primary research to other species, identify certain traits, then turn that into a commercial test with online delivery of results to customers.

“Australia has always been strong supporters of our Speed Gene Test. We’ve noticed that across all our clients, Australians are very open to innovation. We also see that in the move towards sport science by trainers in Australia and the way trainers have embraced out enhanced speed gene test with our additional more complex testing.

“Trainers such as Lindsay Park, Ciaron Maher, Danny O’Brien and others, all use this to identify quickly what distance will suit a horse. It’s given them the best chance to react quickly with a horse. Often the DNA tests will match the physical and pedigree, but it does throw up some surprises.”

The Speed Gene Test looks at the Myostatin gene which is responsible for the regulation of muscle development. This gene has featured in multiple published studies by Equinome researchers and others, and has shown race-distance aptitude can be determined from this gene with 90 per cent accuracy.

Checkmate and what it offers

“The Thoroughbred is our heritage at Equinome. We have deep connections to the industry, and we are trying to push what is possible genetically. The ultimate goal is to understand what the challenges are in the industry and how we can help solve them. We see Checkmate as a key tool in a broader tool kit for breeders.”

Checkmate looks at a broodmare’s DNA profile and checks it against a breeder’s ten preferred stallions to determine the level of inbreeding in the potential foal.

“We have developed a platform to check the mating’s inbreeding level, so before you make a final decision, you can look at the predicted level of inbreeding. This isn’t about pedigrees, it’s at the DNA level. A pedigree can tell you the likelihood of inbreeding, while DNA tells you the actual.”

Inbreeding and why is it a problem?

It’s been known in the scientific community that high levels of inbreeding in a population leads to inbreeding depression and a higher likelihood of recessive genes being seen in the phenotype of the individual. Two key terms here are genotype – the genetic structure of an individual – and phenotype – what an individual looks like. Another term that is useful is epigenetics, which is basically how the genotype changes as a reaction to the environment.

In humans, 70 per cent of our brain development happens after being born, so nurture has a big impact on how well someone reaches their genetic potential. Horses are born more mature relative to humans, but the way they are grown and their environment also makes a difference to reaching that genetic potential.

But inbreeding depression begins before the nature vs nurture argument. The problems with high levels of inbreeding in a population were first recognised by Charles Darwin in 1876. The famed Hapsburg family who ruled Germany, Austria, and Spain were a stark example of the impacts of high levels of inbreeding with the ‘Hapsburg Jaw’ caused by the family’s tendency to marry their cousins to keep power in the family. After two centuries of rule, the family all had a sharply jutting jaws, bulbous lower lips, long noses, and most importantly hugely decreased fertility until the line failed to produce any heirs.

The genetic level understanding of what was happening with inbreeding depression began in the late 1990s when scientists were looking at populations of endangered species and how zoos could resurrect and expand populations without encountering the issues associated with inbreeding depression.

“Our recent test leans into that. Basically, Checkmate determines the level of inbreeding in an individual. Inbreeding has become a focal point recently with concerns about high levels of inbreeding resulting in reduced health of the breed, from foals through to individual mares, and lower soundness of racehorses.

“Several studies on the level of inbreeding and its affects have been done by the likes of the US Jockey Club, University of NSW, University of Edinburgh, Cornell University and the Royal Veterinary College in England, and they’ve all found that the level of inbreeding (in the Thoroughbred) has accelerated in the last 25 years as stallion book sizes have increased. It’s not necessarily a surprise, but now we have scientific evidence.”

The impacts of inbreeding depression

The currently accepted definition for inbreeding depression is “the reduced survival and fertility of offspring of related individuals.” In racehorses, the higher levels of inbreeding recently come from higher book sizes for stallions. Ironically these bigger books are possible thanks to improvements in broodmare veterinary work. Stallions aren’t doing any more work than they used to do, but better veterinary work has meant that stallions now only need to cover a mare once to get her in foal, rather than four or five times as they did when Northern Dancer (Can) was at stud.

“The Royal Veterinary College’s research correlated higher inbreeding in foals to mid to late term pregnancy loss.” The study, published in March 2024, was led by Dr Jessica Lawson, Alborada Trust Research Fellow at the RVC, and Professor de Mestre at the Baker Institute for Animal Health at Cornell University, together with previous PhD student at the RVC, Dr Charlotte Shilton, analysed DNA samples from 189 individuals and found Thoroughbred pregnancies lost in mid and late gestation had significantly higher inbreeding than across the whole Thoroughbred population, while pregnancies lost early in gestation showed a range of level of inbreeding.

“An increased level of inbreeding has also been looked at in several other studies, some that (Equinome) did, and others in Australia and the Northern Hemisphere, and all of them correlated higher levels of inbreeding to poor racing durability. The studies weren’t consistent (in inputs) but they are comparable. In Australia, the studies looked at the likelihood of getting to the races, while the American ones looked at the length of career, however they all showed the same outcome. As inbreeding rapidly increased there was a correlation to unsoundness.”

Essentially all these studies are pointing to one thing. A higher level of inbreeding in Thoroughbreds is leading to less fitness across the breed and this is seen with late term pregnancy loss and a reduced soundness when racing.

“Historically inbreeding (in thoroughbreds) has been done for positive traits, but more recently the higher levels of homozygosity have been having negative effects.”

Checkmate’s outcomes for your breeding stock and income

“The idea is to better understand what’s good and what’s negative by looking at DNA. Checkmate will allow a mare can be checked against 10 sires, with an outcome range from high coefficient of inbreeding to low.”

Checkmate is designed so a breeder can still make all the decisions about which stallion will suit a mare based on the usual things - type, performance, commerciality, and pedigree – and then will provide a ‘health check’ to determine if any of those matings are higher risk for pregnancy loss.

“Since we established Checkmate, we’ve looked retrospectively at the matings done in Ireland and England and this has been a group of over 1000 mares. We looked at the outcomes of those matings, and the stallions with the highest average levels of inbreeding in their foals had 59 per cent live foals, while those with the lowest levels of average inbreeding among their resulting matings went up to 76 per cent live foals.

“It’s quite stark and powerful when you see these results, especially for stallion owners where no foal equals no fee. Basically, higher inbreeding in foals results in a loss of income for stallion owners because they’ll end up with a lower number of live foals. The reverse is proven to be true too. Matings with a lower average inbreeding figure results in more live foals, so higher stallion incomes.

“And not only are more foals getting born, they are also more durable, more likely to race and this potentially has a longer-term impact on a stallion’s career.”

How can customers access Checkmate?

“We have a digital platform so customers can log in, create a profile, and then send mare samples to us. We sequence them, then the results are visible to the client. From there, a client can match their mares against the couple of hundred sires we have in our system. It’s $330 for 10 matches, and for each one, you can see predicted level of inbreeding for each mating."

For those worried that this will be Northern Hemisphere focused, given that Equinome is a Northern Hemisphere based business, Ryan said, “We have a strong representation of Australian stallions. (Checkmate)’s launch is a little bit late for this season, but we have had good response from Australian breeders to join in for next season.

“It’s important to note that this isn’t about performance. It’s more of a veterinary health check to avoid high risk matings and ensure a live foal. It gives stallion owners a significant return on investment with an increase in live foals. The big owner-breeders are looking to utilise this to its full capacity.

“One of our clients made the point that it’s not about trying to produce a Group 1 winner. It’s about avoiding a bad horse. We aren’t competing with pedigree analysts or mating plan specialists. This is a scientifically verified way to avoid negative health risks via genetic identification.”

“We’ve tried to price (Checkmate) at the level of a veterinary checkup to keep it affordable for our clients too. The consequence and impact of a slipped foal is much more expensive. Anecdotally we are hearing from the big vet clinics that there’s an increase in hereditary issues that they haven’t seen before compared to 15 years ago, and we know that the level of inbreeding has been increasing in that time too.

“We are maintaining our focus on ‘how does this help the customer?’ It’s key for us to make this science ‘actionable’ where it helps produce healthier, sounder horses, and avoid high risk matings that result in pregnancy loss.”

Cover image courtesy of Tattersalls

The Wednesday of the December Mares Sale may have become a quieter session than was once the case but there are still plenty of enticing broodmare prospects. With one day to come, the sale has already surpassed the aggregate for 2022’s record breaking year.

Elliott reinvests in several nice mares

The Godolphin draft provided five of the day's top 10 lots, including the session-topper Bridestones (Ire), a Listed-placed filly by Teofilo (Ire) out of the G1 Fillies' Mile winner White Moonstone (USA) (Dynaformer {USA}), who sold for 280,000gns (AU$581,000).

The 4-year-old was selected by agent Alex Elliott, who assisted the Amo Racing team in the purchase of the overall sale-topper, the 4.8 million gns (AU$9.9 million) You Got To Me (GB) (Nathaniel {Ire}), and it was the former part-owner of the Irish Oaks winner, Anthony Ramsden's Valmont, in the chair to buy Bridestones. Elliott, was aided in the bidding by Ramsden's nephew Charlie Spencer, the son of former champion jockey Jamie.

“She will go back to Whatton Manor (Stud) to be looked after by the Players,” Elliott said. “Teofilo is a very good broodmare sire and he works very well with Lope De Vega, one of Anthony's favourite stallions.”

Elliott also signed for Instinction (GB) (Brazen Beau {Aus}), a 5-year-old half-sister to the G3 Prix Eclipse winner Eddie's Boy (GB) (Havana Grey {GB}), sold from Houghton Bloodstock at 120,000gns (AU$249,000). The dual juvenile winner was in foal for the second time to Havana Grey's stud-mate Sergei Prokofiev and is from the strong black-type family of Swiss Lake (USA) (Indian Ridge {USA}).

“She made a lot sense – it's that old Lordship Stud family, a very fast family,” he said Elliott. “She is perfect for Havana Grey and, if we can take a good-looking Sergei out of her, that will go a good way to paying us back for today. She is for myself and a few others.”

New Zealand purchase

Southern Hemisphere buyers were in short supply on Day 3 with only bloodstock agent Bruce Perry and New Zealand’s Elsdon Park active. They bought Islands Of Gem (Ire) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}) for 50,000gns (AU$104,000). A daughter of Group 1 winner White Moonstone, she’s a half-sister to the day’s sale topper Bridestones.

Sands Of Mali Still a friend to Cool Silk Team

Ellaria Sand (GB) (Sands Of Mali {Fr}), winner of the Listed Radley S. for Ollie Sangster and owner-breeder The Cool Silk Partnership, was the standout in-training purchase of the day. The 2-year-old was bought for 200,000gns (AU$415,000) by Sam Haggas and will remain with Sangster's team of horses at Manton.

She is one of two stakes winners from the first crop of Ballyhane-based Sands Of Mali, along with the Royal Ascot winner Ain't Nobody (Ire). The stallion also raced for Cool Silk and is now the sire of G2 Lowther S. runner-up Time For Sandals (Ire) among 19 winners.

Matt Coleman, advisor to the Cool Silk Partnership, said, “When Sands Of Mali was going to stud, I bought her dam Ellaria to join a band of broodmares to support the stallion. Ellaria Sand was born and reared at Culworth Grounds and went into training and, fair dues to Peter, Karin and Chris Swann of Cool Silk, they back their own homebreds and put them all in training. It is great to see them get such a great price for her.”

He added, “It is a big feather in the cap of the Cool Silk team for a homebred to have won a listed race, and then to sell her for 200,000gns. They raced the stallion and bred this filly so it is a great achievement, hopefully she will go on – Cool Silk has still got the mare and has a full sister to race.”

Barry Lynch active for Ballylinch Stud

'Barry Lynch for Ballylinch' was the tongue-twisting buying partnership of the day, with the agent stepping in to sign for the G3 Pinnacle S. winner Miss Marjurie (Ire) (Marju {Ire}) for the powerhouse Irish stud at 140,000gns (AU$290,000).

Now 14 and in foal to Darley freshman Triple Time (Ire), the mare, offered by Baroda Stud, is from the family of Group 1 winners Soviet Song (Ire), Marsha (Ire) and Ribbons (GB).

Her 2-year-old Smoken (GB) (Too Darn Hot {GB}), who was unnamed when the catalogue was published, provided a major update for her page when winning the Listed Montrose S. at Newmarket in early November.

Lynch said, “Marju mares are very hard to come by, she is in foal to an interesting stallion, and she is a horse who can be mated very easily. It is quite exciting, we are delighted and she is for Ballylinch Stud. Could be one for Look De Vega.”