Cover image courtesy of Peter Rubery (Race Images)

Victorian breeders will gain access to a Group 1-winning juvenile winning son of Champion Sire I Am Invincible in 2025 with the announcement of Move To Strike who will stand at $16,500. An expensive yearling purchase by renowned syndicator David Ellis, Move To Strike has many of the qualities that excite breeders looking for a commercial return in the ring and a precocious talent on the track.

Move To Strike joins Lovatsville’s roster of Royal Meeting (Ire), Fierce Impact (Jpn), Generation, and Gold Trip (Fr). “All our other stallions remain at the same fee (as last year). We want to be known as a farm who does good business, and we encourage people to ring us and see what deals we can do for them,” said Lovatsville CEO Sam White.

“We are conscious that times are tough and we need to support each other. Small breeders are the backbone of the game, and our attitude towards business is reflective of that understanding. We want everyone to win.”

Move To Strike – a first for Vinnie

I Am Invincible had done it all in his career, up to the 2023/24 season, except one thing. Sire a Group 1-winning juvenile. Then along came Move To Strike, whose victory in the G1 Manawatu Sires’ Produce Stakes of 2024 ticked off that all important box in the Champion Sire’s resume. This season, I Am Invincible added another with Vinrock in the G1 Sires’ Produce Stakes, showing that good stallions can achieve something once, but great stallions can repeat it over and again.

“The stats are extremely well known around Vinnie, who is a sire I have a lot of admiration for, but he only has two Group 1-winning 2-year-olds. Vinrock this year, but first it was Move To Strike,” said White.

“For breeders to be able to access a horse of the times, with the pedigree, profile and physique of Move To Strike, and at a price point where people can make money, we think is terribly exciting. He’s big, strong, and sexy. He’s everything people should be looking at.”

Move To Strike was impressive from early on. Sold by Baramul Stud at the Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale for $525,000 to David Ellis, whose syndication business, Te Akau Racing, has a long record to finding high class horses.

“From the moment I set eyes on Move To Strike at the Magic Millions' sale, I knew he was something truly special. He had that unmistakable quality - a colt with real presence, athleticism, and a powerful physique, but also an intelligent and kind eye. He’s a magnificent individual, strong and imposing yet with an absolutely superb temperament,” David Ellis said.

Incredibly precocious, Move To Strike won one of the very first juvenile trials of the season, then debuted before Christmas with a victory. The form around his next couple of starts is very strong, as he ran second in the G2 Eclipse Stakes on New Year’s Day to stablemate Bellatrix Star (Star Witness) who won the G2 Schillaci Stakes this season in Australia and was second to Switzerland in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes. Third in the Eclipse was Velocious (Written Tycoon), who won the G1 Sistema Stakes at her next start.

Move To Strike then ran fifth in the G3 Matamata Slipper Stakes won by Savaglee (NZ) (Savabeel), who went on to win the G1 NZ 2000 Guineas at three and place in the G1 Australian Guineas. Move To Strike’s next start was the Group 1 victory over 1400 metres and in third behind him was Captured By Love (Written Tycoon) who won the G1 NZ 1000 Guineas at three.

“Our team is excited that Move to Strike will be standing in Victoria this season. The Lovatsville pitch was compelling, leveraging the opportunity to have Move To Strike’s stock become VOBIS qualified which has become an important part of our Victorian-based Cranbourne operation,” said Ellis.

I Am Invincible, a three-time Australian Champion Stallion, has sired 117 stakes winners with 17 Group 1 winners, most recently last weekend’s G1 Robert Sangster Stakes winner Charm Stone, as well as the likes of Home Affairs, Te Akau Racing’s Imperatriz, and brilliant mare In Secret. It’s early days for him as a damsire with Asfoora (Flying Artie) and Kimochi (Brave Smash {Jpn}) both leading the charge in that realm for him.

His sire sons include proven Group 1 sires Brazen Beau and Hellbent, as well as emerging young sires like Home Affairs, whose first yearlings sold so well this year, King’s Gambit, and Hawaii Five Oh. Brazen Beau’s son Tassort already has a Group 1 winner under his belt too.

Move To Strike is out of G2 Let’s Elope Stakes winner No Evidence Needed (Shamardal {USA}), who also placed in the G1 Robert Sangster Stakes and G1 Australasian Oaks. She is also the dam of G2 Shannon Stakes-placed winner of five races Discharged (Snitzel) and four other winners. Her dam, Generosa (NZ) (Generous {Ire}) placed in the G2 Light Fingers Stakes and she is out of an unraced Danehill (USA) mare who is a daughter of G3 Gimcrack Stakes winner Kincay (Marscay).

“Move To Strike will be at the Great Southern Sale parading with the other first season sires. We are very appreciate of Inglis’ support of this initiative as it provides breeders with an easy access point to view him. He’ll also be available for private inspection prior to that,” said White.

More than Hayasugi for Royal Meeting

Royal Meeting had a lift in fee from $11,000 to $22,000 in 2024 thanks to siring ill-fated G1 Blue Diamond winner Hayasugi in his first crop, and he remains at $22,000 in 2025. He served 129 mares in 2024, his biggest book to date. Hayasugi returned at three to place in the G1 AJ Moir Stakes when resuming, but sustained an injury to a hind foot shortly afterwards and despite best efforts by veterinarians, she couldn’t be saved. Royal Meeting has several other promising types among his 13 winners from 32 runners to date.

“Royal Meeting has got good numbers coming through with a promising 2-year-old crop who’ll come into their own leading into the spring. His fee remains the same because he’s had a 2-year-old Group 1 winner in his first crop which is difficult to achieve. Like all our horses, we are open to doing deals with clients on assist in the economic climate,” said White.

“Have a look at the list of stallions who have sired a Blue Diamond winner. It’s impressive company to be in.” Extreme Choice sired this year’s G1 Blue Diamond winner Devil Night, while other stallions on the winner’s list include Per Incanto (USA), Lord Kanaloa (Jpn), Lonhro, Written Tycoon, Fastnet Rock, Not A Single Doubt and Street Cry (Ire).

Encouraging start by Fierce Impact

A son of Deep Impact (Jpn) who won at two in Ireland and came to Australia at four to win three Group 1 races as an older horse, Fierce Impact wasn’t expected to be on the list of sires with winners at this point with his first crop. But then Zelia won a trial in New Zealand by 12l in September, and from there she won twice in the autumn and recently placed in the Listed Welcome Stakes. He’s always been popular, covering over 100 mares in each of his four season, and covered 128 mares at $13,750 in 2024 and remains at that fee for 2025.

“Fierce Impact is a horse we have a lot of faith in. No one expected them to be early 2-year-old sorts, but from 4 runners, he’s had Zelia, Fine Star who was fourth on debut in a Listed race, and Matt Smith’s Fierceness ran fourth on debut at Canterbury and that race has some strong form around it,” said White.

Fine Star ran fourth in the Listed Supremacy Stakes in WA for trainer Simon Miller. “Simon’s opinion on her and the breed was vindicated when he bought another by the sire this year.”

“From only handful of runners, he’s made a big impression. We are fielding a lot of calls on him, due to the organic interest in him. He’s well priced and the market expects him to come into his own with his spring 3-year-olds, so there’s more to come. If anyone is looking for their punt horse, they should be looking at him this season.”

Once in a Generation horse

Generation could easily be seen as one of many – a sprinting son of Snitzel who was competitive in Group 1 races – and he was well regarded by the market in his first season in 2024, covering 64 mares at a fee of $11,000 and he stays at the same price point for his second season.

“He is as good a looking horse as you’ll see. He has an enormous hip and is a great colour. If he produces horses that look like himself, we’ll see much more support. I think it’s very important that Ciaron Maher has retained a significant share of the horse,” said White.

“These fast horses, with the way he looks, and how he performed, he could be the next Written Tycoon or Vinnie, that’s why we do this, it’s the dream. He’s got such a great pedigree, it’s quite a dominant physical pedigree. We’ve had some of the old Blue Gum people say that they can see traits in him back to the third generation of his family and hopefully that’s a mark of what he can produce. We are keen to get numbers to him and will do business to ensure this happens.”

Purchased by Ciaron Maher Racing and Dermot Farrington Bloodstock from Newgate Farm’s Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale draft for $575,000, Generation was unbeaten in two starts at two. Generation returned at three to win the G3 Red Anchor Stakes and G3 Manfred Stakes and run fourth in the G1 William Reid Stakes behind September Run (Exceed And Excel), who had also won the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes. He trained on at four and five to place in several Group races and was fourth in the G1 AJ Moir Stakes to Coolangatta (Written Tycoon) and Bella Nipotina (Pride Of Dubai).

A son of triple stakes winning juvenile Fontiton (Turffontein) whose three stakes wins include the G2 Blue Diamond Prelude (f), Generation is a half-brother to Group 3-placed juvenile winner Pinkham (Written Tycoon). His second dam, Listed winner Personal Ensign (Rubiton) also produced G3 Red Anchor Stakes winner Sartorial Splendor (Brazen Beau).

Gold Trip is all class

Best known for winning the G1 Melbourne Cup, Gold Trip was a Group winner at three in France, and ran third in the G1 Grand Prix de Paris and fourth in the time-honoured G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. At four, he placed in the G1 Prix Ganay. Sent to Australia he won the G1 Melbourne Cup, G1 Turnbull Stakes and placed in two successive G1 Caulfield Cups. He stood his first season in 2024 at a fee of $8800 and covered 65 mares and will remain at the same fee for 2025.

“I love this horse. He’s a king. He’s got the looks, the attitude, and as a 3-year-old he ran an amazing fourth in the Arc, where he looked like the winner in the straight. Can you think of any Aussie 3-year-old who could do that? He was also a weight-for-age Turnbull winner beating Romantic Warrior by three lengths,” said White.

“He covered a good quality book and found favour with trainers and their clients who recognised his ability. He will be accessible to breeders this season. We’ve heard that the sales companies see a commercial angle with him now that trainers are sending their client’s mares to him, and this means they’ll also be the people putting up their hands for his stock.”

Table: Lovatsville stallion servie fees for 2025, fees include GST

Cover image courtesy of SF Bloodstock

“The Kentucky Derby is widely regarded as the pinnacle of racing,” is how Tom Ryan of SF Bloodstock describes what is billed in the United States as ‘The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports’.

“To win it is a career-defining moment for all involved. It is an achievement that resonates far beyond the racetrack.”

It takes over four years to brew a G1 Kentucky Derby winner; beginning with the careful recipe of pedigree and conformation that goes into matching a stallion with a mare, there is an 11 month wait to see two hooves, cushioned with eponychium as they herald the earthside arrival of a Derby prospect. In the autumn of the following year, those same hooves will walk through a sales ring, awaiting the hammerfall that will guide the direction in which they will tread.

At the Keeneland September Yearling Sale in 2023, 20 yearling colts were purchased by agent Donato Lanni on behalf of SF Bloodstock, Starlight Racing, and Madaket Stables, and began the long, slow 19-month crawl towards the first Saturday in May.

Making the cut

Remarkably, two of that number have made the final field; Citizen Bull (USA) (Into Mischief {USA}) and Rodriguez (USA) (Authentic {USA}). The former, a son of Spendthrift Farm’s six-time Champion Sire Into Mischief (USA), was a US$675,000 ($1.06 million) purchase from Taylor Made Sales Agency.

One of two runners in the race for his sire, Citizen Bull earned the title of Champion 2YO Colt last year with two Group 1 victories in the G1 American Pharoah Stakes and the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

While his dam No Joke (USA) (Distorted Humor {USA}) is unraced, she is a half-sister to dual Group 1 winner Moonshine Memories (USA) (Malibu Moon {USA}), from the close family of fellow Champion 2YO Colt Favorite Trick (USA), and Kentucky Derby runner-up and four-time Group 1 winner Tiz The Law (USA). On pedigree alone, he appears a winner.

Indian Creek offered the latter, who was knocked down for US$485,000 ($762,000). Having taken out the G2 Aqueduct Wood Memorial Stakes at his most recent start, Rodriguez is the third stakes winner, and fourth stakes performer, for his dam Cayala (USA) (Cherokee Run {USA}).

Two things about Rodriguez are particularly fascinating in the context of this year’s Derby; his sire Authentic (USA), a son of Into Mischief whose eldest crop are 3-year-olds, won the Kentucky Derby himself - and he was also purchased as a yearling by SF Bloodstock, in partnership with Starlight West.

The excitement of having one (or two) Kentucky Derby runners is one thing, but to have one from the first crop of a Kentucky Derby winner that you yourself sourced - that is something particularly special.

“We're fortunate to be able to put together a strong string of stallions over the years,” Ryan said. “We raced Authentic to win the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic, so it would be a little bit extra special if, in his first crop of 3-year-olds, we were able to produce a Derby winner for him.”

The anticipation for the event is at an all-time high, but nothing is certain. In a field of 20 starters, there can only be one winner. Ryan is pragmatic about his entrants’ chances.

“Citizen Bull is a champion, he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Robert B Lewis Stakes in gate-to-wire fashion,” he said. “However, his recent fourth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby raised questions. There’s cautious optimism that he can rebound, but he’ll need to bring his A-game against a deep field of speed horses.

“Rodriguez, meanwhile, comes into the race off his first Graded stakes win and seems to be maturing at the right time. He's the youngest horse in the field with the oldest and most experienced jockey in Mike Smith.

“Overall, there’s a mix of excitement and nerves; both horses have talent, but both face significant tactical challenges from their draws.”

Buying a Derby winner

Breeding, selecting, purchasing, training a Kentucky Derby winner is no mean feat; Ryan is the first to admit that they “get it wrong 90 per cent of the time”. SF Bloodstock and their collaborators have been sourcing yearlings with the Derby dream in mind for eight years, with both Keeneland’s September Sale and Fasig-Tipton’s Saratoga Select Yearling Sale as regular hunting grounds.

Authentic was also a Keeneland graduate, going home with the team for US$350,000 ($550,000). He was a selection of Gavin Murphy, the third member of the SF Bloodstock management team alongside Ryan and Henry Field, director of Newgate Farm.

Aside from the assistance of Lanni, the team relies heavily on the opinion of six-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert, who steered Authentic to Derby success - and, before him, SF Bloodstock co-owned Triple Crown winner Justify (USA).

“Bob's very precise on his style and type of horse that he wants to train, and it's a big part of our program that we have him as the final decider in our selection process,” said Ryan. “We can all work together and put together lists and vet horses and all of that, but Bob comes in and he decides what horses he would like to train, and then we decide if we can afford them.”

The list that Ryan and the team prepare for Baffert at every sale adheres to a similar set of criteria to what they look for at the Australian sales; size, scope, athleticism. The key difference really is the distance the horse is expected to be effective over.

“A suitable yearling needs to have what Bob Baffert would consider the scope and the shape to potentially get around two turns,” Ryan said. “As opposed to in Australia, where you are looking for something that will be fast over five furlongs.

“You're looking for a horse with great balance, with a great physical presence, with athleticism. You're looking for a horse with, most importantly, a good mind. We put a lot of weight in how a horse presents himself. We like a horse that is alert, a horse that is focused and not overly anxious.”

The last criterion becomes all the more important when considering a Derby prospect.

“On Derby day, when those horses walk by the grandstand on the way to the saddling paddock, the stand is vibrating. There's 150,000 people in there, screaming, and there's no getting away from the pressure that puts on everything and everyone.

“It takes a unique horse to be able to take the pressure of this elite level racing and we do look for that in the ring, because if they can't take it at the sales, then they're certainly unlikely to be able to take it on the racetrack.”

Elite talent

Authentic was one such unique animal; now standing at Spendthrift Farm alongside his sire, the Champion 3YO and Horse Of The Year set a new track record in his G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic win and never finished further back than second across eight starts.

Field, speaking to The Thoroughbred Report just after Authentic’s Derby victory in 2020, said that Baffert had been sure of the horse’s talent at his very first start - “and when Bob Baffert says a horse is a good one, you can set your watch by it”.

Baffert also had great confidence in Justify, who proved too valuable to shuttle to the Southern Hemisphere last year and will be represented at Coolmore Australia in 2025 by his champion son City Of Troy (USA). In his Derby victory, Justify became the first horse since 1982 to win without racing as a 2-year-old.

“He was a very unique horse, brilliant in every way,” Ryan said. “What he did to win a Triple Crown was out of this world. When stallions excel at the highest level and show versatility over different distances, like Justify did, they attract strong interest at stud.”

Despite his absence of 2-year-old form, the Triple Crown commands a certain power worldwide, and Justify rewarded Australasia’s enthusiasm for him with the kind of precocious juvenile that the market desired - exemplified by electric 2-year-old Learning To Fly in his first crop, and Stormboy in his second.

“The ability to produce precocious winners with good gate speed is vital, as is bringing in outcross pedigrees that complement the dominant Danehill lines in Australia. Justify’s rapid success as a young sire in Australia, producing multiple stakeswinners and strong sales results, demonstrates the importance of these factors.”

Justify will also attempt to carve another slice of Derby history on Saturday, when American Promise (USA) will be the fourth of his offspring to attempt to win the Derby. Only three Triple Crown winners in history have sired Derby winners themselves; Gallant Fox (USA), Count Fleet (USA), and Seattle Slew (USA).

When asked if there should be greater emphasis on 3-year-old races in Australia, more akin to how the States treats the Triple Crown, Ryan was diplomatic; “Australia is renowned for its focus on 2-year-old racing, and they are very, very good at it. This has been a successful formula, fueling public and wagering interest in the sport, however a shift toward (emphasising) 3-year-old features could also make Australian racing more attractive to international investors and breeders.

“It might also help diversify the bloodstock market, reducing the intense pressure to have early-maturing 2-year-olds and allowing more horses to reach their full potential as 3-year-olds.”

Business across hemispheres

A Derby victory is a grand mark of success for SF Bloodstock’s Stateside business model; Ryan explained that most of their American investment is in high-level syndication, pooling capital from multiple investors to purchase and race the cream of the yearling crop.

Aside from the aforementioned, they have had recent success with National Treasure (USA), Champion Older Dirt Male in 2024 when adding the G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes to his collection - making him a Group 1 winner as a two, three, and 4-year-old - and juvenile Group 1 winner Prince of Monaco (USA), who joined the Claiborne Farm roster this Northern Hemisphere spring.

Down south, their focus is broader; they have been at the forefront of bringing American mares into the country to bolster the breeding population.

“Australia’s market is more focused on turf speed, but there's a significant amount of data that shows how well American dirt mares cross with Australian bloodlines,” Ryan said. “Speed is also a defining factor of many successful American dirt families. What makes these mares successful is they're gritty, fast mares; in American racing, they pretty much go at top speed from the gate.

“Gate speed is in the DNA that they bring to Australia. And these good dirt mares are sound. They're tough. Dirt is less forgiving than turf, and I think it ends up producing potentially a more durable horse.”

A strong performance on the track overrides pedigree when SF Bloodstock have been purchasing mares, and they have struck gold several times already with this formula; US$1.5 million ($2.35 million) broodmare purchase and Group 1 winner My Conquestadory (USA) (Artie Schiller {USA}) has produced four winners and three stakes performers from four foals to race, and her latest yearling yielded $450,000 at the Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale in January.

Among others, Violence (USA) mare Cicatrix (USA) produced Group 1-placed Mayfair (Fastnet Rock) as her second foal, and her Extreme Choice daughter was sold for $800,000 at the Inglis Australian Easter Yearling Sale this year.

“​​You're trying to send down something that you know was durable, had speed, had ability, and I think that is what's going to give you the best possible chance of getting a good result,” Ryan said.

A cultural giant

The Kentucky Derby is a rich thread interwoven into the tapestry of North American history; 2025 marks the 151st edition of the ‘Run For the Roses’, a race that hasn’t missed a year since 1875. The Derby is up there with the G1 Melbourne Cup as events that even the non-racegoer would recognise.

“It’s a major social event, drawing international attention and hundreds of thousands of fans to Louisville,” Ryan said. “It puts a spotlight firmly on Kentucky’s US$6.5 billion equine industry and reinforces the state’s status as the ‘Horse Capital of the World’.”

The Derby and the G1 Kentucky Oaks, held on the Friday, are expected to bring in over US$400 million ($625 million) to the Louisville economy, and the Louisville tourism board reported that wagering on last year’s event alone eclipsed US$200 million ($313 million).

For the industry, the value of a Derby victory to a stallion prospect is astronomical. Since 2003, all but three of winners of the Derby have entered stud; Funny Cide (USA (Distorted Humor {USA}) and Mine That Bird (USA) (Birdstone {USA}) raced on as geldings, and Barbaro (USA) (Dynaformer {USA}) was humanely euthanised following a long battle with laminitis. Authentic entered stud at a fee of US$75,000 ($117,000) - Justify first stood for US$150,000 ($234,000).

For Ryan and many others, the two minutes from when the gates fly back will be all-consuming. Watching his two runners - a champion and an up-and-comer - duel it out on the dirt of Churchill Downs is the ultimate thrill.

“It’s one of the greatest sporting events you'll ever attend,” Ryan said. “It's extraordinary - it's almost indescribable. Coming to the Kentucky Derby is something everybody should do once in their life if they can. We're just glad to have been able to participate in and win it on more than one occasion.”

Cover image courtesy of Racing Photos

Over the last eight seasons, Australia has seen a slight drop in the per cent of juveniles who race out of each crop, falling from 20 per cent of the foal crop in 2016/17 to 17 per cent last season.

Yet we’ve only seen 10 per cent of the crop race so far in 2024/25.

Table: Per cent of foal crop that raced at two in Australia

To match last season, Australia will need to see 1000 new juvenile debutants in the next 90 days. If Australia has three 2-year-old races per day across the different states, for example one in NSW, one in Victoria, and one in Queensland, we will need to see 3-4 debutants in all of those races in order to meet the same figure as last season.

It’s possible, but with the trend over time looking like less and less of the crop make it to the races at two, is it likely?

And regardless of this season’s figures, the trend is still towards a lower portion of the foal crop racing at two. Why is that?

Precocity and soundness

The biggest study into 2-year-old racing in Australia was done by Sydney University in 2012 and looked at 117,088 horses who raced between 2000 and 2011. Racing horses as 2-year-olds was seen as a major welfare concern at the time and this study looked at whether racing at two had an adverse effect on longevity.

It found the opposite – horses who raced at two had longer careers and more starts than horses who debuted at three or older. As a side note, the study found that high career earnings for mares and geldings resulted in longer careers, while high career earnings for colts resulted in earlier retirement age. This second point would seem obvious to anyone who watches racing – the good colts disappear off to stud early, and the good mares and geldings keep going.

So if the data found one obvious answer, surely that means the main result of the study – that racing at two results in a longer career – should be seen as the standard for the way we approach juvenile racing.

And by extension, does less juveniles at the races mean we should be concerned about the general soundness of the breed? Or are there other factors involved too?

Potentially a programming issue

Michael Freedman won the G1 Golden Slipper Stakes this season with Marhoona (Snitzel) and he knows a thing or two about training juveniles, having G1 Sires’ Produce Stakes winner Manaal (Tassort) last season, and another Golden Slipper with Stay Inside to boot. Group-winning juveniles Queen Of The Ball (I Am Invincible), Tiger Of Malay, Glistening (Zoustar), and R. Listed Inglis Millennium winner Prime Star (Starspangledbanner) all come through his system in recent years.

“I can only speak for myself and my 2-year-old numbers feel the same as previous years. There’s a general feeling that not pushing 2-year-olds too much too early is a thing now. Maybe it’s not a coincidence that three of the last five Slipper winners haven’t debuted until January,” said Freedman.

“It could also be the pedigrees changing with some horses taking more time to mature, or not standing up to an early preparation like some.”

But the key problem that Freedman outlined was one of programming. If Australia is to get 1000 new juvenile debutants in the next three months, there needs to be races for them.

“Here in NSW, the 2-year-old programming seems to make it difficult to find races for young horses than it used to be. You go to find a race and there isn’t one. In Victoria, they often have quite a few provincial maidens for 2-year-olds, but here if you haven’t got a city class 2-year-old, there aren’t many options.

“Speaking to other trainers, particular stables like mine that are strong in the autumn with 2-year-olds, it’s been hard to find races for them. They just aren’t on the program.

“It seems odd given the way Sydney prides itself on their 2-year-old racing, and it’s quite odd that we have less provincial maidens for 2-year-olds than other states. At this time of year, I’ve got several 2-year-olds who are looking for more than 1400 metres, and there’s nothing for them. It means the only option is to take on the older horses, which I don’t mind doing in June when they are almost three, but there’s certainly a lack of races over 1400 metres and 1600 metres at the back end of the season.”

On Wednesday, across Australia, there were seven juvenile races across six meetings. Miss Freelove (Tassort) won at Canterbury for trainer Peter Snowden, there were three 2-year-old races in Queensland won by North Pole (Farnan), Don’t Tellyafather (Cool Aza Beel {NZ}), and Fabulantes (Star Turn). Victoria’s Warrnambool juvenile race was won by Mrs Iglesia (Dirty Work), Deltason (I’m All The Talk) won in Western Australia, and the race at Murray Bridge was won by Sir Myka (Doubtland).

But on Thursday, there were five meetings in Australia and only two races for 2-year-olds.

Less pressure to get up early

The Snowden stable has a long history with training good juveniles with Golden Slipper winner Capitalist and Group 1 2-year-old winners like Pride Of Dubai and King’s Legacy. In 2011, he won all five 2-year-old Group 1 races in Australia with Sepoy winning the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes and Golden Slipper, and Helmet winning the G1 Sires’ Produce Stakes and G1 Champagne Stakes, while Benfica won the G1 JJ Atkins Plate.

“There’s a lot of different reasons. My own 2-year-olds this year have just not been early running types. They’ve been winning lately but they’ve needed a bit of time. There’s nothing wrong with their types, it just happens,” said Peter Snowden.

“Everyone is also thinking not to rush them and burn them out, and then they last longer. Yes, there’s good money early, but now there’s also good money later.”

In 2023/24, Australia handed out $70 million in prizemoney to juvenile runners, but $268 million to 3-year-olds, and the rest of the $1 billion total went to older horses. The average earnings per runner was also higher for three, four, five and 6-year-olds, compared to 2-year-olds, then fell to a lower amount for 7-year-olds and above.

“It’s also just different breeds. We haven’t had a lot of Australian-bred early horses go to stud recently, but has been a lot of European horses like Too Darn Hot, which could be a factor.

“The field sizes have been big lately with lots of debutants, so maybe they are coming. The depth and strength of fields is there, it’s been hard to win races. I don’t think it’s a concern, just one of those years. We haven’t changed anything we are doing.”

Snowden’s assistant Aaron Lau added that the prizemoney for three, four, and 5-year-olds in Sydney is strong now. “We don't have to push horses so early for the money. There’s less pressure to get to the races and people seem happier to wait. Also, a lot of those early pedigrees are very expensive at the sales, while the ones that take time are cheaper to buy.

“The work we do with them at two hasn’t changed, but perhaps only those who put their hand up go to the trials, and the ones who were fifty-fifty, we tip them out, instead of pushing on, to give them a bit more time now.”

Queensland trainer Maddy Sears agreed, mentioning that they’ve changed the way they view 2-year-olds. “I think people just aren’t pushing them as hard, so they can have a longer racing career.”

"I can only speak from my perspective, but I think trainers aren't forcing 2-year-olds like they used to," Victorian trainer Lucy Yeomans said. "The good ones put their hands up, and then the others are just given the time they need."

It’s certainly fascinating that a decade after a major study showed that racing (at least once) at two was a benefit for a long-term career, the idea persists that waiting is better.

The Northern Hemisphere does it more

When looking at other countries, who don’t have the same reputation as Australia for fast early juveniles, most of them have significantly higher percentages of 2-year-old runners than us. Are they training them differently? Is the programming different?

Table: Per cent of foal crop that raced at two in NH nations

Note in this table, there is also a line that adds together Ireland and England because of the huge cross over between the two nations.

“We (Australians) believe we have the best 2-year-old racing in the world, but when you look at the data, it doesn’t stack up. The main reason for that is race programming here. If you don’t have a horse in Australia that can win over five or six furlongs at two, you basically can’t find a race for them, so it’s difficult to keep them in training. The Golden Slipper is in the autumn of their 2-year-old career, and we are still racing up to six furlongs at that point in time,” said Colm Santry.

“Most of the races leading up to the Slipper are all sprints, so if you don’t have a speed horse, you might as well tip them out. The costs of training are so high too, it’s a major negative factor. If you can’t win with the programming, you might as well not be in work.”

When asked about what European trainers do differently to have such a high percentage of their foal crop racing at two, Santry pointed to the way training was set up here in Australia.

“When Australia began, training was all in the cities, so there was limited access to stables, making it necessary to spell horses due to a lack of boxes. In Europe, they are in training all year around. They’ll be backed off over winter, just ticking over, but they don’t spell like they do here. It’s a totally different way of working.

“In Ireland, the weather is no good, so they might as well be in work and rugged up and doing light work every day. It’s also good for colts to be in work all the time on a routine. It keeps the weight off their legs, and so the European system suits them better, rather than spelling where the weight goes on and off. It all helps with their longevity to race at two. Just look at Wootton Bassett in each hemisphere.”

Wootton Bassett (GB)’s first Coolmore-sired crop turned two in 2024, and he had 202 foals for 130 juvenile runners, with 54 of them winning a race, meaning that 64 per cent of his Irish born 2022 crop raced at two. He had four individual Group 1 winners, and nine group winners from that crop. By contrast, his first Australian-born crop has had 131 foals for just 19 runners so far this season. He’s had two Group 1-placed colts and five winners from that 19, but in per cent terms, he’s well behind his European efforts.

“We’d love to see a series that suits staying bred young horses, perhaps something at the Warrnambool carnival finishing with a mile race for juveniles. Something that horses who are by our sires like Fierce Impact and Gold Trip can target as they prepare for a Derby at three,” said Lovatsville CEO Sam White.

Most of the nations with higher percentages of 2-year-old runners than Australia hold longer races for their juveniles at the end of their season, with Japan and France among several countries who stretch their rising 3-year-olds out to 2000 metres.