Cover image courtesy of SF Bloodstock
“The Kentucky Derby is widely regarded as the pinnacle of racing,” is how Tom Ryan of SF Bloodstock describes what is billed in the United States as ‘The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports’.
“To win it is a career-defining moment for all involved. It is an achievement that resonates far beyond the racetrack.”
“The Kentucky Derby is widely regarded as the pinnacle of racing, To win it is a career-defining moment for all involved. It is an achievement that resonates far beyond the racetrack.” - Tom Ryan
It takes over four years to brew a G1 Kentucky Derby winner; beginning with the careful recipe of pedigree and conformation that goes into matching a stallion with a mare, there is an 11 month wait to see two hooves, cushioned with eponychium as they herald the earthside arrival of a Derby prospect. In the autumn of the following year, those same hooves will walk through a sales ring, awaiting the hammerfall that will guide the direction in which they will tread.
At the Keeneland September Yearling Sale in 2023, 20 yearling colts were purchased by agent Donato Lanni on behalf of SF Bloodstock, Starlight Racing, and Madaket Stables, and began the long, slow 19-month crawl towards the first Saturday in May.
Making the cut
Remarkably, two of that number have made the final field; Citizen Bull (USA) (Into Mischief {USA}) and Rodriguez (USA) (Authentic {USA}). The former, a son of Spendthrift Farm’s six-time Champion Sire Into Mischief (USA), was a US$675,000 ($1.06 million) purchase from Taylor Made Sales Agency.
One of two runners in the race for his sire, Citizen Bull earned the title of Champion 2YO Colt last year with two Group 1 victories in the G1 American Pharoah Stakes and the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
While his dam No Joke (USA) (Distorted Humor {USA}) is unraced, she is a half-sister to dual Group 1 winner Moonshine Memories (USA) (Malibu Moon {USA}), from the close family of fellow Champion 2YO Colt Favorite Trick (USA), and Kentucky Derby runner-up and four-time Group 1 winner Tiz The Law (USA). On pedigree alone, he appears a winner.
Citizen Bull (USA) winning the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile | Image courtesy of Spendthrift Farm
Indian Creek offered the latter, who was knocked down for US$485,000 ($762,000). Having taken out the G2 Aqueduct Wood Memorial Stakes at his most recent start, Rodriguez is the third stakes winner, and fourth stakes performer, for his dam Cayala (USA) (Cherokee Run {USA}).
Two things about Rodriguez are particularly fascinating in the context of this year’s Derby; his sire Authentic (USA), a son of Into Mischief whose eldest crop are 3-year-olds, won the Kentucky Derby himself - and he was also purchased as a yearling by SF Bloodstock, in partnership with Starlight West.
The excitement of having one (or two) Kentucky Derby runners is one thing, but to have one from the first crop of a Kentucky Derby winner that you yourself sourced - that is something particularly special.
“We're fortunate to be able to put together a strong string of stallions over the years,” Ryan said. “We raced Authentic to win the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic, so it would be a little bit extra special if, in his first crop of 3-year-olds, we were able to produce a Derby winner for him.”
“We raced Authentic (...) so it would be a little bit extra special if, in his first crop of 3-year-olds, we were able to produce a Derby winner for him.” - Tom Ryan
The anticipation for the event is at an all-time high, but nothing is certain. In a field of 20 starters, there can only be one winner. Ryan is pragmatic about his entrants’ chances.
“Citizen Bull is a champion, he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Robert B Lewis Stakes in gate-to-wire fashion,” he said. “However, his recent fourth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby raised questions. There’s cautious optimism that he can rebound, but he’ll need to bring his A-game against a deep field of speed horses.
“He’ll (Citizen Bull) need to bring his A-game against a deep field of speed horses.” - Tom Ryan
“Rodriguez, meanwhile, comes into the race off his first Graded stakes win and seems to be maturing at the right time. He's the youngest horse in the field with the oldest and most experienced jockey in Mike Smith.
“Overall, there’s a mix of excitement and nerves; both horses have talent, but both face significant tactical challenges from their draws.”
Buying a Derby winner
Breeding, selecting, purchasing, training a Kentucky Derby winner is no mean feat; Ryan is the first to admit that they “get it wrong 90 per cent of the time”. SF Bloodstock and their collaborators have been sourcing yearlings with the Derby dream in mind for eight years, with both Keeneland’s September Sale and Fasig-Tipton’s Saratoga Select Yearling Sale as regular hunting grounds.
Authentic was also a Keeneland graduate, going home with the team for US$350,000 ($550,000). He was a selection of Gavin Murphy, the third member of the SF Bloodstock management team alongside Ryan and Henry Field, director of Newgate Farm.
Authentic (USA) | Standing at Spendthrift Farm
Aside from the assistance of Lanni, the team relies heavily on the opinion of six-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert, who steered Authentic to Derby success - and, before him, SF Bloodstock co-owned Triple Crown winner Justify (USA).
“Bob's very precise on his style and type of horse that he wants to train, and it's a big part of our program that we have him as the final decider in our selection process,” said Ryan. “We can all work together and put together lists and vet horses and all of that, but Bob comes in and he decides what horses he would like to train, and then we decide if we can afford them.”
“Bob (Baffert) comes in and he decides what horses he would like to train, and then we decide if we can afford them.” - Tom Ryan
The list that Ryan and the team prepare for Baffert at every sale adheres to a similar set of criteria to what they look for at the Australian sales; size, scope, athleticism. The key difference really is the distance the horse is expected to be effective over.
“A suitable yearling needs to have what Bob Baffert would consider the scope and the shape to potentially get around two turns,” Ryan said. “As opposed to in Australia, where you are looking for something that will be fast over five furlongs.
Bob Baffert | Image courtesy of Fasig Tipton
“You're looking for a horse with great balance, with a great physical presence, with athleticism. You're looking for a horse with, most importantly, a good mind. We put a lot of weight in how a horse presents himself. We like a horse that is alert, a horse that is focused and not overly anxious.”
The last criterion becomes all the more important when considering a Derby prospect.
“On Derby day, when those horses walk by the grandstand on the way to the saddling paddock, the stand is vibrating. There's 150,000 people in there, screaming, and there's no getting away from the pressure that puts on everything and everyone.
“On Derby day, when those horses walk by the grandstand on the way to the saddling paddock, the stand is vibrating.” - Tom Ryan
“It takes a unique horse to be able to take the pressure of this elite level racing and we do look for that in the ring, because if they can't take it at the sales, then they're certainly unlikely to be able to take it on the racetrack.”
Elite talent
Authentic was one such unique animal; now standing at Spendthrift Farm alongside his sire, the Champion 3YO and Horse Of The Year set a new track record in his G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic win and never finished further back than second across eight starts.
Field, speaking to The Thoroughbred Report just after Authentic’s Derby victory in 2020, said that Baffert had been sure of the horse’s talent at his very first start - “and when Bob Baffert says a horse is a good one, you can set your watch by it”.
Baffert also had great confidence in Justify, who proved too valuable to shuttle to the Southern Hemisphere last year and will be represented at Coolmore Australia in 2025 by his champion son City Of Troy (USA). In his Derby victory, Justify became the first horse since 1982 to win without racing as a 2-year-old.
Justify (USA) | Standing at Coolmore America
“He was a very unique horse, brilliant in every way,” Ryan said. “What he did to win a Triple Crown was out of this world. When stallions excel at the highest level and show versatility over different distances, like Justify did, they attract strong interest at stud.”
“What he (Justify) did to win a Triple Crown was out of this world.” - Tom Ryan
Despite his absence of 2-year-old form, the Triple Crown commands a certain power worldwide, and Justify rewarded Australasia’s enthusiasm for him with the kind of precocious juvenile that the market desired - exemplified by electric 2-year-old Learning To Fly in his first crop, and Stormboy in his second.
“The ability to produce precocious winners with good gate speed is vital, as is bringing in outcross pedigrees that complement the dominant Danehill lines in Australia. Justify’s rapid success as a young sire in Australia, producing multiple stakeswinners and strong sales results, demonstrates the importance of these factors.”
American Promise (USA) | Image courtesy of Kentucky Derby
Justify will also attempt to carve another slice of Derby history on Saturday, when American Promise (USA) will be the fourth of his offspring to attempt to win the Derby. Only three Triple Crown winners in history have sired Derby winners themselves; Gallant Fox (USA), Count Fleet (USA), and Seattle Slew (USA).
When asked if there should be greater emphasis on 3-year-old races in Australia, more akin to how the States treats the Triple Crown, Ryan was diplomatic; “Australia is renowned for its focus on 2-year-old racing, and they are very, very good at it. This has been a successful formula, fueling public and wagering interest in the sport, however a shift toward (emphasising) 3-year-old features could also make Australian racing more attractive to international investors and breeders.
“A shift toward (emphasising) 3-year-old features could also make Australian racing more attractive to international investors and breeders.” - Tom Ryan
“It might also help diversify the bloodstock market, reducing the intense pressure to have early-maturing 2-year-olds and allowing more horses to reach their full potential as 3-year-olds.”
Business across hemispheres
A Derby victory is a grand mark of success for SF Bloodstock’s Stateside business model; Ryan explained that most of their American investment is in high-level syndication, pooling capital from multiple investors to purchase and race the cream of the yearling crop.
Aside from the aforementioned, they have had recent success with National Treasure (USA), Champion Older Dirt Male in 2024 when adding the G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes to his collection - making him a Group 1 winner as a two, three, and 4-year-old - and juvenile Group 1 winner Prince of Monaco (USA), who joined the Claiborne Farm roster this Northern Hemisphere spring.
Down south, their focus is broader; they have been at the forefront of bringing American mares into the country to bolster the breeding population.
National Treasure (USA) winning the G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes | Image courtesy of Spendthrift Farm
“Australia’s market is more focused on turf speed, but there's a significant amount of data that shows how well American dirt mares cross with Australian bloodlines,” Ryan said. “Speed is also a defining factor of many successful American dirt families. What makes these mares successful is they're gritty, fast mares; in American racing, they pretty much go at top speed from the gate.
“Gate speed is in the DNA that they bring to Australia. And these good dirt mares are sound. They're tough. Dirt is less forgiving than turf, and I think it ends up producing potentially a more durable horse.”
“Dirt is less forgiving than turf, and I think it ends up producing potentially a more durable horse.” - Tom Ryan
A strong performance on the track overrides pedigree when SF Bloodstock have been purchasing mares, and they have struck gold several times already with this formula; US$1.5 million ($2.35 million) broodmare purchase and Group 1 winner My Conquestadory (USA) (Artie Schiller {USA}) has produced four winners and three stakes performers from four foals to race, and her latest yearling yielded $450,000 at the Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale in January.
Among others, Violence (USA) mare Cicatrix (USA) produced Group 1-placed Mayfair (Fastnet Rock) as her second foal, and her Extreme Choice daughter was sold for $800,000 at the Inglis Australian Easter Yearling Sale this year.
“You're trying to send down something that you know was durable, had speed, had ability, and I think that is what's going to give you the best possible chance of getting a good result,” Ryan said.
A cultural giant
The Kentucky Derby is a rich thread interwoven into the tapestry of North American history; 2025 marks the 151st edition of the ‘Run For the Roses’, a race that hasn’t missed a year since 1875. The Derby is up there with the G1 Melbourne Cup as events that even the non-racegoer would recognise.
“It’s a major social event, drawing international attention and hundreds of thousands of fans to Louisville,” Ryan said. “It puts a spotlight firmly on Kentucky’s US$6.5 billion equine industry and reinforces the state’s status as the ‘Horse Capital of the World’.”
The Derby and the G1 Kentucky Oaks, held on the Friday, are expected to bring in over US$400 million ($625 million) to the Louisville economy, and the Louisville tourism board reported that wagering on last year’s event alone eclipsed US$200 million ($313 million).
Tom Ryan | Image courtesy of Keeneland
For the industry, the value of a Derby victory to a stallion prospect is astronomical. Since 2003, all but three of winners of the Derby have entered stud; Funny Cide (USA (Distorted Humor {USA}) and Mine That Bird (USA) (Birdstone {USA}) raced on as geldings, and Barbaro (USA) (Dynaformer {USA}) was humanely euthanised following a long battle with laminitis. Authentic entered stud at a fee of US$75,000 ($117,000) - Justify first stood for US$150,000 ($234,000).
For Ryan and many others, the two minutes from when the gates fly back will be all-consuming. Watching his two runners - a champion and an up-and-comer - duel it out on the dirt of Churchill Downs is the ultimate thrill.
“It’s one of the greatest sporting events you'll ever attend,” Ryan said. “It's extraordinary - it's almost indescribable. Coming to the Kentucky Derby is something everybody should do once in their life if they can. We're just glad to have been able to participate in and win it on more than one occasion.”
“It’s one of the greatest sporting events you'll ever attend.” - Tom Ryan