Where are the 2-year-olds?

Cover image courtesy of Racing Photos

Over the last eight seasons, Australia has seen a slight drop in the per cent of juveniles who race out of each crop, falling from 20 per cent of the foal crop in 2016/17 to 17 per cent last season.

Yet we’ve only seen 10 per cent of the crop race so far in 2024/25.

Table: Per cent of foal crop that raced at two in Australia

To match last season, Australia will need to see 1000 new juvenile debutants in the next 90 days. If Australia has three 2-year-old races per day across the different states, for example one in NSW, one in Victoria, and one in Queensland, we will need to see 3-4 debutants in all of those races in order to meet the same figure as last season.

It’s possible, but with the trend over time looking like less and less of the crop make it to the races at two, is it likely?

And regardless of this season’s figures, the trend is still towards a lower portion of the foal crop racing at two. Why is that?

Precocity and soundness

The biggest study into 2-year-old racing in Australia was done by Sydney University in 2012 and looked at 117,088 horses who raced between 2000 and 2011. Racing horses as 2-year-olds was seen as a major welfare concern at the time and this study looked at whether racing at two had an adverse effect on longevity.

It found the opposite – horses who raced at two had longer careers and more starts than horses who debuted at three or older. As a side note, the study found that high career earnings for mares and geldings resulted in longer careers, while high career earnings for colts resulted in earlier retirement age. This second point would seem obvious to anyone who watches racing – the good colts disappear off to stud early, and the good mares and geldings keep going.

So if the data found one obvious answer, surely that means the main result of the study – that racing at two results in a longer career – should be seen as the standard for the way we approach juvenile racing.

And by extension, does less juveniles at the races mean we should be concerned about the general soundness of the breed? Or are there other factors involved too?

Potentially a programming issue

Michael Freedman won the G1 Golden Slipper Stakes this season with Marhoona (Snitzel) and he knows a thing or two about training juveniles, having G1 Sires’ Produce Stakes winner Manaal (Tassort) last season, and another Golden Slipper with Stay Inside to boot. Group-winning juveniles Queen Of The Ball (I Am Invincible), Tiger Of Malay, Glistening (Zoustar), and R. Listed Inglis Millennium winner Prime Star (Starspangledbanner) all come through his system in recent years.

“I can only speak for myself and my 2-year-old numbers feel the same as previous years. There’s a general feeling that not pushing 2-year-olds too much too early is a thing now. Maybe it’s not a coincidence that three of the last five Slipper winners haven’t debuted until January,” said Freedman.

“It could also be the pedigrees changing with some horses taking more time to mature, or not standing up to an early preparation like some.”

But the key problem that Freedman outlined was one of programming. If Australia is to get 1000 new juvenile debutants in the next three months, there needs to be races for them.

“Here in NSW, the 2-year-old programming seems to make it difficult to find races for young horses than it used to be. You go to find a race and there isn’t one. In Victoria, they often have quite a few provincial maidens for 2-year-olds, but here if you haven’t got a city class 2-year-old, there aren’t many options.

“Speaking to other trainers, particular stables like mine that are strong in the autumn with 2-year-olds, it’s been hard to find races for them. They just aren’t on the program.

“It seems odd given the way Sydney prides itself on their 2-year-old racing, and it’s quite odd that we have less provincial maidens for 2-year-olds than other states. At this time of year, I’ve got several 2-year-olds who are looking for more than 1400 metres, and there’s nothing for them. It means the only option is to take on the older horses, which I don’t mind doing in June when they are almost three, but there’s certainly a lack of races over 1400 metres and 1600 metres at the back end of the season.”

On Wednesday, across Australia, there were seven juvenile races across six meetings. Miss Freelove (Tassort) won at Canterbury for trainer Peter Snowden, there were three 2-year-old races in Queensland won by North Pole (Farnan), Don’t Tellyafather (Cool Aza Beel {NZ}), and Fabulantes (Star Turn). Victoria’s Warrnambool juvenile race was won by Mrs Iglesia (Dirty Work), Deltason (I’m All The Talk) won in Western Australia, and the race at Murray Bridge was won by Sir Myka (Doubtland).

But on Thursday, there were five meetings in Australia and only two races for 2-year-olds.

Less pressure to get up early

The Snowden stable has a long history with training good juveniles with Golden Slipper winner Capitalist and Group 1 2-year-old winners like Pride Of Dubai and King’s Legacy. In 2011, he won all five 2-year-old Group 1 races in Australia with Sepoy winning the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes and Golden Slipper, and Helmet winning the G1 Sires’ Produce Stakes and G1 Champagne Stakes, while Benfica won the G1 JJ Atkins Plate.

“There’s a lot of different reasons. My own 2-year-olds this year have just not been early running types. They’ve been winning lately but they’ve needed a bit of time. There’s nothing wrong with their types, it just happens,” said Peter Snowden.

“Everyone is also thinking not to rush them and burn them out, and then they last longer. Yes, there’s good money early, but now there’s also good money later.”

In 2023/24, Australia handed out $70 million in prizemoney to juvenile runners, but $268 million to 3-year-olds, and the rest of the $1 billion total went to older horses. The average earnings per runner was also higher for three, four, five and 6-year-olds, compared to 2-year-olds, then fell to a lower amount for 7-year-olds and above.

“It’s also just different breeds. We haven’t had a lot of Australian-bred early horses go to stud recently, but has been a lot of European horses like Too Darn Hot, which could be a factor.

“The field sizes have been big lately with lots of debutants, so maybe they are coming. The depth and strength of fields is there, it’s been hard to win races. I don’t think it’s a concern, just one of those years. We haven’t changed anything we are doing.”

Snowden’s assistant Aaron Lau added that the prizemoney for three, four, and 5-year-olds in Sydney is strong now. “We don't have to push horses so early for the money. There’s less pressure to get to the races and people seem happier to wait. Also, a lot of those early pedigrees are very expensive at the sales, while the ones that take time are cheaper to buy.

“The work we do with them at two hasn’t changed, but perhaps only those who put their hand up go to the trials, and the ones who were fifty-fifty, we tip them out, instead of pushing on, to give them a bit more time now.”

Queensland trainer Maddy Sears agreed, mentioning that they’ve changed the way they view 2-year-olds. “I think people just aren’t pushing them as hard, so they can have a longer racing career.”

"I can only speak from my perspective, but I think trainers aren't forcing 2-year-olds like they used to," Victorian trainer Lucy Yeomans said. "The good ones put their hands up, and then the others are just given the time they need."

It’s certainly fascinating that a decade after a major study showed that racing (at least once) at two was a benefit for a long-term career, the idea persists that waiting is better.

The Northern Hemisphere does it more

When looking at other countries, who don’t have the same reputation as Australia for fast early juveniles, most of them have significantly higher percentages of 2-year-old runners than us. Are they training them differently? Is the programming different?

Table: Per cent of foal crop that raced at two in NH nations

Note in this table, there is also a line that adds together Ireland and England because of the huge cross over between the two nations.

“We (Australians) believe we have the best 2-year-old racing in the world, but when you look at the data, it doesn’t stack up. The main reason for that is race programming here. If you don’t have a horse in Australia that can win over five or six furlongs at two, you basically can’t find a race for them, so it’s difficult to keep them in training. The Golden Slipper is in the autumn of their 2-year-old career, and we are still racing up to six furlongs at that point in time,” said Colm Santry.

“Most of the races leading up to the Slipper are all sprints, so if you don’t have a speed horse, you might as well tip them out. The costs of training are so high too, it’s a major negative factor. If you can’t win with the programming, you might as well not be in work.”

When asked about what European trainers do differently to have such a high percentage of their foal crop racing at two, Santry pointed to the way training was set up here in Australia.

“When Australia began, training was all in the cities, so there was limited access to stables, making it necessary to spell horses due to a lack of boxes. In Europe, they are in training all year around. They’ll be backed off over winter, just ticking over, but they don’t spell like they do here. It’s a totally different way of working.

“In Ireland, the weather is no good, so they might as well be in work and rugged up and doing light work every day. It’s also good for colts to be in work all the time on a routine. It keeps the weight off their legs, and so the European system suits them better, rather than spelling where the weight goes on and off. It all helps with their longevity to race at two. Just look at Wootton Bassett in each hemisphere.”

Wootton Bassett (GB)’s first Coolmore-sired crop turned two in 2024, and he had 202 foals for 130 juvenile runners, with 54 of them winning a race, meaning that 64 per cent of his Irish born 2022 crop raced at two. He had four individual Group 1 winners, and nine group winners from that crop. By contrast, his first Australian-born crop has had 131 foals for just 19 runners so far this season. He’s had two Group 1-placed colts and five winners from that 19, but in per cent terms, he’s well behind his European efforts.

“We’d love to see a series that suits staying bred young horses, perhaps something at the Warrnambool carnival finishing with a mile race for juveniles. Something that horses who are by our sires like Fierce Impact and Gold Trip can target as they prepare for a Derby at three,” said Lovatsville CEO Sam White.

Most of the nations with higher percentages of 2-year-old runners than Australia hold longer races for their juveniles at the end of their season, with Japan and France among several countries who stretch their rising 3-year-olds out to 2000 metres.