Saturday preview: Zoustar poised to snatch sires' premiership from Pride Of Dubai

Cover image courtesy of Widden Stud

Zoustar vs Pride Of Dubai: closing the gap

As we barrel on through the last quarter of the racing season, the race to the top of the sires’ premierships draw closer still; while Pride Of Dubai retains his lead courtesy of Bella Nipotina’s dynamic spring performances, he heads into the weekend with a margin of just over $200,000 in front of Zoustar, who is closing the gap at pace. Four-time Champion Sire Snitzel retains his third position, over $1.5 million behind second place and a $500,000 margin back to I Am Invincible in fourth.

But what of our duelling duo at the top? Their greatest chances are later in the Queensland Carnival - Schwarz (Zoustar) in the G1 Doomben 10,000 and Pride of Jenni (Pride Of Dubai) in the G1 Doomben Cup - but every race day counts. Just counting their Australian runners, where could they stand at the end of Saturday racing?

Table: Zoustar and Pride Of Dubai’s Saturday runners and possible first place prizemoney

On first blush, the numbers are not exactly in Pride Of Dubai’s favour. While a strike rate of 59 per cent winners to runners is a good one, it pales in the face of Zoustar’s 69 per cent strike rate - particularly when Zoustar has almost seven times the amount of runners accepted on Saturday as the former. Note that in the above table, prizemoney is calculated just for first place finishes, even when there are multiple runners by the same sire in one race.

Zoustar only needs one mare to win to snatch away the lead, and that’s G1 Robert Sangster Stakes-winning Climbing Star (NZ), who will make a bid to snare the $547,250 first place prize in the G1 Goodwood Handicap at Morphettville. The Phillip Stokes-trained mare never got a look in the Sangster this year, but opened the preparation with a slashing third to Asfoora (Flying Artie) in the G3 RN Irwin Stakes. Drawing barrier 3 is not where Stokes wanted to be on the track, but he hopes Thomas Stockdale can bring out the best in the 5-year-old before she heads to the Magic Millions Gold Coast National Broodmare Sale later this month.

“I'm not sure what happened with Climbing Star last time,” Stokes told media this week. “She got buffeted early in the race and had an off day, but we can't fault her and we're hoping she will bounce back.”

Zoustar will have eight representatives across the nation’s stakes races this Saturday - versus Pride Of Dubai’s lone filly Pride To Follow - with six of his offspring heading to the Gold Coast to contest half of the card’s black-type events. Zoubaby, Tuned, and Silver Wedding will attempt to clinch a maiden stakes win in the G3 Gold Coast Guineas. The well-travelled Zoubaby has performed well in the Sunshine State before, beaten not far in the G3 Vo Rogue Plate and the R. Listed Magic Millions 3YO Guineas earlier this year.

Of course, there is no guarantee of victory in racing, but simply the breadth of acceptors offer Zoustar every opportunity to draw ahead and put himself firmly in position to earn his first Champion Sire title. With the majority of the million dollar races now over for the season, every win counts!

Sydney raiders descend upon Hollindale

As the black-type heads north for the winter, so do Sydney’s elite stayers; Chris Waller brings four of his staying stars up for the G2 AD Hollindale Stakes, where he is joined by newlyweds Annabel and Rob Archibald with three, and Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott’s spring supernova Eliyass (Fr) (Le Havre {Ire}).

Ante-post favourite Buckaroo (GB) (Fastnet Rock) and the ever-consistent Lindermann (Lonhro), who has spent much of the autumn playing bridesmaid to Via Sistina (Ire) (Fastnet Rock), lead Waller’s quartet. Militarize (NZ) (Dundeel {NZ}) and Kovalica (NZ) (Ocean Park {NZ}) round out his hand.

Waller is not playing favourites ahead of the event, telling the press this week, “if we just had one runner in the race, I’d be talking up their chances of winning the race. They’ve got good jockeys on now so it’s their problem, not mine.

“They’re just happy boys. Give them a trip away and it’s like a holiday for them, a change of scenery.”

No doubt the bets have come for Buckaroo due to the presence of James McDonald in the saddle, but Blake Shinn has the reins on Tony Gollan’s Antino (NZ) (Redwood {GB}) and is fresh off riding a four-timer on Wednesday at Caulfield Heath. His strike rate over his last 50 starts is sitting pretty at 28 per cent winners and he rattled home on Reserve Bank (Capitalist) last Saturday to win the G2 Tobin Stakes at Morphettville. Shinn also partnered Antino to win the G1 Toorak Handicap in the spring.

The Archibalds pose a threat with a three-pronged attack including last start G3 JRA Plate winner Bois D’Argent (GB) (Toronado {Ire}) and Port Lockroy (Better Than Ready), who draws a similar position to where he won the G1 Railways Stakes from in the spring. The 4-year-old entire has already acclimatised to Queensland, having his last run at Eagle Farm in late April to set him up for this event.

Cavity Bay’s time to shine?

Cavity Bay (Cable Bay {Ire}) has had a hard luck autumn. The Tony and Calvin McEvoy-trained 3-year-old has come achingly close to placing in her last four starts, including running fourth by just 1.5l in the G1 Australasian Oaks and fifth in G1 South Australian Derby last weekend, where she came powering from near last at the top of the straight.

Backing up to run for the third weekend in a row on Saturday when taking her place in the G3 SA Fillies Classic, co-trainer Calvin McEvoy hopes that third time’s the charm for a filly who has been running better than her strike rate suggests.

“The target was the Oaks and we did have in the back of our mind the back-up (into the Derby), obviously, it worked last year with Coco Sun and Femminile did it this year,” he said. “We programmed her to do that. She is a very straightforward, tough filly and it's a recipe that works.

“She ran extremely well in the Oaks, she ran extremely well in the Derby. I thought just the barrier killed us, having to go further back and they walked, I thought she was as strong as anything through the line.”

While another swift turnaround is unusual, McEvoy shared with the media that the filly hasn’t given him anything but a green light since her Derby run.

“I flew over to Adelaide on Saturday and when I was saddling her up, I just couldn't believe how well she looked, for a filly that's not overly big and doesn't hold a huge amount of condition, she just couldn't look any better.

“She hasn't left an oat from the Derby and she's going to be taking her place on Saturday.”

Jamie Melham takes the reins on Saturday, and McEvoy hopes Cavity Bay can run a peak performance before a possible tilt at the G1 Queensland Oaks on June 7.

“I think she's going to be effective anywhere from 2000 metres to 2500 metres, I don't think it's going to bother her,” McEvoy said. “With this busy three weeks, having those four weeks into the Oaks, if we decide to do that, it's not a bad little recipe.”

First season sires battle for maiden stakes win

There are three Group 3 races on Saturday for the juveniles, but the intrigue will be most around the G3 David Coles AM Stakes at Morphettville, where six of the 11 runners are by first season sires. Ghaiyyath (Ire) and Russian Camelot (Ire) will both be looking to get their first winner on the board with Freedom Flame and Morgana respectively, and three more sires - King’s Legacy, Anders, and Doubtland - will be hunting for a first stakeswinner.

Only Tagaloa has ticked both boxes with his offspring to date, although his daughter Salty Pearl is seeking her first win after swooping home to finish second in the $250,000 VOBIS Gold Rush behind Killiana (Brazen Beau). The Ciaron Maher-trained filly was beaten just 0.46l on that occasion in mid April, and secures the steady hands of Mark Zahra, who rode a Group treble at the same venue a week ago, to guide her this time.

Steel Trap (King’s Legacy) has come close twice now to securing a stakes win for her sire, and finished second in the G3 SAJC Breeders’ Stakes a fortnight ago. Jamie Melham returns for the ride.

Travis Doudle’s Sir Myka (Doubtland) was winner number four for his quiet achiever of a sire, and is on a 10-day turnaround from his Murray Bridge win, where he beat fellow stakes starter Maldivica (Anders), who arrives third up on Saturday in the hopes of propelling her sire into the top 10.

Freedom Flame is on debut for Andrew Gluyas, hoping to break the ice on her sire’s stud career. While Ghaiyyath was fast as a juvenile, it was an older horse that he excelled, winning four Group 1s across his four and 5-year-old seasons, so his crop will no doubt improve with age.

Over the Tasman, another first season sire seeking a win is Banquo, whose first runner - from a crop of just 30 foals - Portland will bid to break her maiden against the older horses at Arawa Park at start number two.

Table: First season sires with runners in Australia and New Zealand this Saturday

In form geldings set to clash in The Coast

They call it the ultimate gear change for a reason - sometimes gelding is what it takes to make a horse bloom, and that has certainly been the case for the leading chances for the Listed The Coast, which runs at Gosford on Saturday. Co-trainer Leah Gavranich has spoken extensively about how much gelding helped Country Championships winner Know Thyself (The Autumn Sun) transition from lazy colt to focussed, powerful gelding, who has won six out of nine starts and nearly $1 million in prizemoney.

“He was one of those horses that, early on when still a colt, he was very lazy in his gallops,'” she recalled. “His original rider couldn't even get him to go even time on the track.”

When co-trainer Paul Messara informed Arrowfield Stud principal John Messara that the The Autumn Sun colt needed to be gelded to get the best out of him, the elder Messara agreed immediately.

“I remember making a mistake with Danehill and particularly Redoute's Choice when I didn't geld some of their colts,” he shared with the media this week. “I kept thinking we might have a stallion prospect here, but quite a few colts that could have been serious racehorses didn't quite make it. So, with The Autumn Sun, we felt if there was any colt that needed gelding, we wouldn't hesitate, as that would also help the sire get established.”

It has worked a treat, and having now won three in a row, the 4-year-old heads to The Coast at the top of betting.

Just behind him is Depth Of Character (Deep Field), off the back of an outstanding victory in the G2 Queensland Guineas. Co-trainer Rob Archibald certainly points to gelding the 3-year-old after his disappointing spring has brought him on in leaps and bounds.

“I think he’s probably just starting to mature a bit and we’re working him out as well,’’ he said. “If you go back through his form, he’s done very little wrong, we’ve asked him to race in some good races early on.

“We got it wrong a bit with him in the spring, but he’s been good this time in.”

Archibald is confident that the one week turnaround for the gelding is the only pinch point; if he can handle that, he’s got it in the bag. There is the potential to stay north this winter if he pulls it off, with more Group targets on the horizon where he might flourish being two stone lighter than his rivals.