Cover image courtesy of Australian Turf Club
It’s the figure that’s been on every front page and in every headline: $5 billion. That’s what the Australian Turf Club says it will receive if members vote to sell Rosehill Gardens to the New South Wales Government: a "once-in-a-generation" opportunity.
But as with any deal, it’s not just the size of the cheque that matters - it’s when it arrives. Because when you look at the fine print, the $5 billion on offer isn’t landing in the Club’s account tomorrow - or even this decade. In fact, most of it won’t arrive for another 10 to 15 years.
So the question facing ATC members isn’t just whether the Club should sell. It’s whether this particular deal reflects the true value of what’s being given up - not just in terms of money, but in terms of timing, opportunity, and long-term potential.
To put it plainly: if someone offered you $5 billion for your house - but said they’d pay most of it in 2041 - would you take the deal?
Rosehill Gardens | Image courtesy of Australian Turf Club
The payment plan
The Club’s proposal outlines a two-part payment structure.
The first portion, $1.9 billion, is set to arrive over the next five years, due by 2031. This money is earmarked for capital works: redeveloping Warwick Farm, upgrading Randwick, securing a new training centre, and other major infrastructure investments.
The second, larger, portion is the proposed “Future Fund”: $3.1 billion to be delivered over the following decade, from 2032 to 2041.
According to the Club’s own indicative schedule, the ATC would receive $100 million per year from 2032 to 2040, followed by a final balloon payment of $2.2 billion in 2041. That final year accounts for more than 70 per cent of the Future Fund, meaning most of the money will not be received until nearly two decades from now.
Net Present Value: What that money is actually worth today
To understand why that matters, think about selling your home.
If a buyer agrees to pay $2 million, but only offers $200,000 a year for nine years, and the rest in year ten, you’re not really getting $2 million today. You can’t use it to buy another house. And inflation, investment opportunities, and risk all make the future money worth less.
What is Net Present Value?
Net Present Value (NPV) helps compare future payments to today’s dollars. The longer you wait for money, the less it’s worth - due to inflation, risk, and lost opportunities.
That’s why economists use Net Present Value (NPV) to understand what a deal is really worth today, based on how long it takes for payments to arrive.
Just like how you’d rather be paid $1,000 today than in ten years, ATC members must assess what this deal is truly worth now, not just what it totals in 2041.
What the calculations show
Using the actual ATC payment schedule, we applied three discount rates:
3 per cent - typical of conservative government forecasts
4 per cent - a moderate, industry-standard benchmark
7.2 per cent - reflecting the opportunity cost of selling land in Parramatta, which has historically doubled in value every 10 years
Here’s what the deal is actually worth in today’s terms, based on those scenarios:
Table: Net Present Value of the ATC Proposal
Of course, the flip side of the deal is what the Club gives up by selling now.
Rosehill sits on 25 hectares of prime real estate in one of Sydney’s fastest-growing commercial zones. If land in the area continues to double in value every decade, as it has, the site could be worth significantly more by the time the final payment under this deal lands in the Club’s account.
That kind of compound growth can’t be ignored. The certainty of a $5 billion deal is tempting - but the opportunity cost of giving up an appreciating asset must also be considered. And it calls into question the idea that this is a “once in a lifetime” opportunity. If the Club retains the land, and if pressure on housing continues to rise as expected, there’s every chance that future offers could be even stronger. In that context, calling this the only opportunity worth taking begins to look less like foresight and more like wishful thinking.
A defining decision
None of this is to suggest that the deal should not be thoroughly considered.
Even with a present-day value between $2.2 and $3.3 billion, the funding could still be transformative - if managed wisely and transparently. But that’s a big “if.” With inflation and construction costs continuing to rise, there’s a serious risk that project budgets could blow out. If that happens, the Club may find itself without the funds needed to fully deliver the promised infrastructure - and Rosehill gone.
It’s also worth noting that Rosehill may not be worth $5 billion today - which is part of what makes the prospect of the sale so compelling. During the NSW Government’s inquiry into the proposed sale, the site was estimated at approximately $1.8 billion, based on comparable land size and zoning values in the Parramatta area.
Australian Turf Club | Image courtesy of Australian Turf Club
However, that figure only strengthens the case that the land’s real value lies in its future. With Sydney’s west continuing to grow rapidly, the population of Sydney putting more and more pressure on housing, and with government infrastructure projects reshaping the region, few doubt that this land - held for another 10 to 20 years - would become far more valuable than it is today.
So yes, five billion is a big number. And members deserve to understand the deal for what it is: not a $5 billion cheque arriving next year, but a heavily back-ended, long-term payment plan, with much of the money not accessible until well into the 2040s.
This vote is not just about the number. It’s about timing, the trade-offs, and the long-term cost of certainty.
So the question remains: If it were your home, would you sell now to a particularly high offer and wait until 2041 to get paid? Or sit and wait?
