Close but no cigar, yet... the First Season Sire title is tight

Cover Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything

The Champion First Season Sire title could be decided on Saturday after the G1 JJ Atkins Plate which offers $600,000 to the winner. There are only seven juvenile stakes races left in the season, led by the $1 million G1 JJ Atkins Plate.

The others are the $160,000 Listed Oxlade Stakes on the same card, the $160,000 Listed Tattersalls Plate and $120,000 Listed Oaklands Plate on June 28, the $175,000 Listed Taj Rossi Series Final on July 5, the $150,000 G3 SA Sires’ Produce Stakes on July 19 and for two and 3-year-olds, the $120,000 Listed SAJC Lightning Stakes on July 26.

At the end of Wednesday’s racing and before the gates opened on Thursday, Ole Kirk and Wootton Bassett (GB) were $447,000 apart in first crop progeny earnings on the First Season Sires’ table.

This weekend looks like Wootton Bassett has a strong chance to take the lead with two runners in the JJ Atkins, being Chris Waller pair of Providence and dual nominated Regulated Affair, while Ole Kirk is represented by Aerodrome trained by Michael Freedman. In the other juvenile stakes race in Brisbane, the Listed Oxlade Stakes, Wootton Bassett has Barry Lockwood-trained filly Dialidae.

Waller’s runners in the JJ Atkins

Chris Waller marked his other runner, Hidden Achievement (I Am Invincible) as his best chance of the three G1 JJ Atkins Plate runners from his stable. Of the two Wootton Bassett colts, one is unlikely to run and the other has an interesting long-term goal.

“I thought his run was a pass mark,” Waller said of Providence’s last start run in the Listed Show A Heart Stakes for fourth.

“I’ve labelled him as our Spring Champion horse for the spring over 2000 metres. We are running because it was so hard to make up ground on Saturday that if the track had been fairer, he could have run closer to the winner and you’d have more confidence here. He’s drawn out a little bit and he’s fit and ready to go.”

“Regulated Affair has a wide draw. I don’t think we’ll take him up (to Brisbane). He’ll stay in the Rosehill race if he draws well there.”

Waller’s decision makes it a one-on-one battle on Saturday in the G1 JJ Atkins, and even second place for Providence with $180,000 in prizemoney will close the gap to make the remaining six weeks of the season incredibly interesting for both stallions.

Wootton Bassett with the proven advantage

Wootton Bassett arrived here in the spring of 2021 as a proven stallion in Europe, with Almanzor (Fr) already at stud in New Zealand, and Wooded (Ire) arriving at Swettenham in 2022. It begs the question – just how valid is it that Wootton Bassett is on the first season sire table when he’s a proven stallion competing against horses who are unproven?

“It’s one hundred per cent valid. Just because he came here later than most shuttles doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be considered a First Season Sire here. This is his first book of mares in this part of the world,” said Coolmore’s Tom Moore.

“It’s a unique situation with him coming here as an already proven high class sire, quite rare, and we are lucky to have him.”

And the explanation makes sense. Australia considers other shuttle horses to be First Season Sires here based on their first local crop, even if they have one or two crops in the Northern Hemisphere. Wootton Bassett is unique in that he had eight crops of racing age in Europe before he headed down under.

He didn’t begin with this level of popularity, having only 23 foals in his first crop from which came two stakes winners including Champion 3YO Colt in Europe and triple Group 1 winner Almanzor. Wootton Bassett’s second European crop was even smaller, just 18 foals of which 17 raced and 11 were winners.

He slowly gained traction from there, with 45 and 47 foals in his third and fourth crops, based solely on what his foals and yearlings looked like, then leaping up to over 90 foals per crop from his fifth crop onwards (once the first crop started racing).

Now he has 64 stakes winners, all bred in the Northern Hemisphere.

“Expectations were high from the moment he arrived, due to the quality of sire we knew he was already, and then with the depth of mares he covered here,” explained Moore.

“The market took to them early. He’s a phenomenal 2-year-old sire in Europe with four Group 1 winning colts from his first Irish crop and is following that up again this year with some of the most exciting 2-year-olds of the (European) season so far.

“It’s not a surprise to see him hitting the ground here. He went within a hair of winning the Golden Slipper and the Sires Produce Stakes, arguably the two most important juvenile races in Australia.”

Wodeton was second in the G1 Golden Slipper behind Marhoona (Snitzel) and State Visit was second in the G1 Sires’ Produce Stakes behind Vinrock (I Am Invincible).

“What is more encouraging is what trainers in Australia and New Zealand are saying about their unexposed Wootton Bassett horses. He might be battling it out for the First Season title, but we are most excited about the trajectory he’s on here.”

Wootton Bassett has 131 foals in his first Australian crop.

Ole Kirk leads on individual stakes winners

Ole Kirk was also popular in his first season with breeders, and his first crop has 121 foals in it. He has the largest number of stakes winners of any of the first season sires with four individuals, followed by Farnan who has three.

“It’s a unique match battle given that Wootton Bassett is an older stallion and Ole Kirk is there with his first 2-year-old crop as a whole. We are focused on Ole Kirk’s trajectory, beyond his achievements this year. Regardless of the outcome (of the First Season Sire title), people already regard his first season as phenomenal,” said Vinery’s Harry Roach.

“We’ve been piping on about his own racing career since his first triallers. He was a quick 2-year-old and an immensely good 3-year-old, so anything they do this season is a bonus and if they train on like him it's ominous going forward. We know of a few unraced ones who are going well and getting ready for spring 3-year-old campaigns. There are more irons in the fire coming and some new names will put their hands up in the spring.”

Ole Kirk won the Listed Talindert Stakes on debut as a February 2-year-old, placing in the G2 VRC Sires’ Produce Stakes and G1 Champagne Stakes. At three, he won the G1 Golden Rose and G1 Caulfield Guineas.

“(Four stakes winners) is more than we could’ve hoped for. We are proud to have a horse of his calibre on our roster, and all of his winners were in high quality stakes races, and all look like horses who have genuine upside at three. Legacy Bound is heading to the Coolmore, and O’ Ole looks like a genuine top class sprinter going forward.

“Aerodrome might be icing on the cake to end the season with a Group 1.”

And that is an interesting difference between Wootton Bassett and Ole Kirk. Ole Kirk has more stakes winners (four to zero) but Wootton Bassett has more Group 1 placed horses (two to zero).

Can Aerodrome be the icing for Ole Kirk?

Aerodrome won his first two starts impressively then came to Brisbane for the G2 BRC Sires’ Produce Stakes which was run in dreadful conditions and the stewards called off the meeting after that race was run. Aerodrome finished in seventh, but the race is hardly going to be a form guide given that the majority of the field struggled with poor visibility on a sodden surface.

“He’s good. He’s drawn a terrible gate, but the horse is in good order,” said trainer Michael Freedman.

“He just couldn’t pick his feet up in those conditions. They probably shouldn’t have run the race that day. He’s bounced back, is bright and happy. It’s just a shame about the barrier.”

A $190,000 purchase from Gilgai Farm at the Inglis Easter Yearling Sale by Nine9 Park, Aerodrome is the first foal of She Shao Fly (Epaulette), winner of the G3 SAJC Sires’ Produce Stakes. And as Gilgai Farm pointed out earlier in the week, they’ve had a strong season with their Ole Kirk juveniles, breeding Aerodrome, Miss Ole, and O’ Ole.

Historical First Season Sire battles

Saturday’s racing could make this battle between Ole Kirk and Wootton Bassett much tighter, but it’s not the tightest fight in the past decade.

Just $30 in earnings separated Smart Missile and Love Conquers All in 2015/16, while in 2020/21 it was the Newgate Farm pair of Extreme Choice and Capitalist who fought it out with $113,357 separating them, but both performed extremely well with progeny earnings in excess of $3 million for that season.

At the other end of the scale, Too Darn Hot (GB)’s victory over Tassort was the largest gap in progeny earnings in the past decade with Broadsiding being a key contributor to Too Darn Hot’s $4.1 million in earnings for his first season, against Tassort’s still impressive $2.1 million.

In fact, Tassort’s progeny earnings for his first season puts him ahead 14 of the 20 stallions who finished in first or second in their respective seasons in the past decade.

Too Darn Hot leads all 20 horses by progeny earnings for his first season, with Extreme Choice, Capitalist, Zoustar, and Ole Kirk coming in to round out the top five.

In New Zealand, the battle at the top this season is even closer with less than $5000 separating Hello Youmzain (Fr) on progeny earnings of $238,585 from Lucky Vega (Ire) on $235,700.

Table: First season sire battles in the past 10 years