'We're not helping ourselves': So You Think is the symptom of a failed system

Cover image courtesy of Coolmore Stud

Fourteen winners within the past week, and a total of 33 in the last 30 days; those are statistics not to be sniffed at. Fresh off of another weekend where he turned up a stakeswinner in Listed Raconteur Stakes victor Opportunistic, it’s time to wonder why So You Think (NZ) continues to be one of the most underrated sires in the country.

At first blush, you may think that label a little absurd, but there cannot be many stallions out there with over 60 stakeswinners that have yet to crack a six-figure service fee. At his zenith, the son of High Chaparral (Ire) commanded $99,000 inc GST in 2023 - a worthy reward after three racing seasons of cracking double digits in individual stakeswinners - and he has never covered a book smaller than 100 mares to date, but this year his fee dips to to an enticing $44,000 inc GST.

Sweeping cuts to service fees have been made nationwide in response to increasing economic pressures and a dwindling foal crop, but few have more than halved in the same timespan. Fewer still continue to churn out the same level of results; a week after siring the G1 Queensland Derby winner You Wahng, So You Think picked up stakeswinner number 63 with the undefeated Opportunistic, and he sired four winners last Thursday, all on provincial tracks.

“He’s a super horse, and he’s doing it every week,” said Coolmore Stud’s Colm Santry. “Rarely a Saturday goes by where he doesn’t have a winner in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s at a very realistic fee for both commercial and owner-breeders, he has a very good sales average, and his yearlings have sold for up to $1.15 million.”

So You Think finished the yearling sales season batting with a $146,928 average - $35,000 below his peak average in the 2023 sales period - and indeed sold his first million dollar filly this year when Glentree Thoroughbreds and Badgers Bloodstock purchased his daughter out of G1 VRC Oaks winner Personal (Fastnet Rock) at the Inglis Australian Easter Yearling Sale. A colt apiece in 2020 and 2021 breached the million dollar barrier as well.

With average earnings of $125,000 per progeny to race and nine stakeswinners this season alone, it seems bizarre that So You Think is set for such a decrease. His 2024 book of mares was his smallest to date. Why?

“He’s a horse that should be fiercely popular,” Santry said. “But unfortunately, people now don’t want to pay to wait for these types of horses anymore.”

Programmed to fail

For Santry, the problem starts with the programming.

“There needs to be more seven furlong races plus racing for 2-year-olds, especially this time of year, and we probably need to increase the prizemoney in this area,” he expanded. While we still produce Derby horses, there is no program in place early to maximise the amount of horses reaching their potential at Derby distances.

“We also need to increase prize money for 3-year-old middle distance racing in the spring. Right now, there’s a huge volume of money leaving our shores every year to go off and buy middle distance horses in Europe, and they don't want to buy middle distance horses in Australia. It's a huge problem.”

According to the Racing Australia Fact Book, 11,578 thoroughbreds have been imported into Australia since the beginning of the 2020/21 racing season, while 5076 have been exported out of the country. Peak horse movement was in the 2022/23 season, but last year 2290 horses still were imported in.

This isn’t broken down into which horses are to breed and which to race, however it can be extrapolated that, in this time period, two horses are being brought into the country for every horse that leaves.

At the same time, the Australian foal crop is shrinking; successful pregnancy rates have remained steady at 65 per cent for the last five seasons, but the 2024 foal crop is currently reported as 11,572-strong, a drop of nearly 1000 foals from the previous season and over 1300 from the 2020 season.

This racing season has seen a significant drop in juveniles making it to the races; at the time of writing, 1760 juveniles have started in races on Australian shores this season, compared to a total of 2250 at the end of the 2023/24 season, meaning just under 500 must have their first starts in the next six weeks to match last season.

“A minute percentage of the juvenile foal crop are racing at the moment,” Santry said. “There has been some very average 2-year-old racing at the moment. We should be more focused on later 2-year-olds and getting them to the races, and then on our 3-year-old racing, because there’s millions and millions being spent on bringing in horses to race here who are four, five, and six-year-olds. We need to try and claw some of that back.”

Production costs are on the increase, Santry acknowledged, and that has to be accounted for somewhere. But importing a horse from the Northern Hemisphere is not cheap either; transportation costs and documentation can run into the six figures. The more of this that can be spent within our borders, the better, is his feeling.

“We need more 2-year-old races over distance, and we need to put more money into races like the Derby in Melbourne and the Champion Stakes in Sydney, they ought to be looked at. We should try to encourage breeders to breed more of these types of horses, and then by doing that, we'll encourage more buyers to buy these types of horses.”

The industry cannot afford to programme and breed itself into a corner.

“Our whole breeding industry revolves around the Golden Slipper,” Santry said. “It revolves around five and six furlong races for 2-year-olds in the autumn. It's very much focused on that, so if you have a 2-year-old that can't win over five or six furlongs in Australia, generally speaking, you might as well turn them out and not race them.”

In contrast, juvenile racing in Europe is much more varied in distance. Last year, Britain and Ireland recorded just over 13,000 foals between them, and there is much more on offer as the racing season progresses.

“There could be seven or eight 2-year-old races in Ireland and England on any day,” Santry said. “There’s races every day over five, six, seven furlongs. It caters to the whole population. In Australia, we cater for 15 per cent of the foal population. That’s all. We're set now for probably the lowest fall population of 2-year-olds to race ever.”

Improving the breed

Santry believes that the only way the Australian thoroughbred can continue to evolve and improve is by the promotion of longer races for juveniles and thus, the inclusion of middle distance horses in the breeding pool.

“Olly Tait’s father Sandy, a great breeder, said to me years ago that you have got to keep introducing these great horses all the time to keep improving the breed,” he said. “At Coolmore we’re not afraid of bringing these seven furlong two and 3-year-olds out here, they may not be the most exciting stallions in Australia, but when their daughters go to stud, they’re important for the breed to survive.”

Exciting shuttler City Of Troy (USA) is perhaps the most recent example of this line of thinking; all three of his juvenile wins were over 1400 metres, which including a world-leading performance in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket that aided him in earning his European Champion 2YO Colt title. He added a further three top flight wins as a 3-year-old in 2024, all over no less than 2000 metres, to secure another championship and his reception down under has been extraordinary already.

“The horse is full,” Santry confirmed. “We feel he's going to be a very important horse going forward. European Champion 2-year-old and 3-year-old, and very well bred. He's going to complement the breed here.

“When we breed his daughters back to domestic speed horses like Switzerland and Shinzo, you’re likely to breed a very good horse.

“Fusaichi Pegasus is a good example of that, he has a Golden Slipper winner, a Blue Diamond winner, and a Magic Millions winner all in the same crop as broodmare sire.”

Newgate Farm resident Capitalist, G1 Golden Slipper Stakes and Magic Millions winner, and G1 Blue Diamond Stakes winner Catchy (Fastnet Rock) both boast the former shuttler as broodmare sire.

“He (Fusaichi Pegasus) was deemed to be an unsuccessful stallion in this country. But it's what they leave here. They leave all these daughters of these champion racehorses, and they turn out to be very good broodmares, which everybody tends to forget. It's just another feather in their cap.”

Churchill (Ire), who shuttled to Coolmore for the first seven years of his stud career, is one that Santry believes has been let down by the racing programming in Australia.

“Churchill has been a decent stallion here, but the racing programming has let him down. He was never going to be a five and six furlong stallion. The same for Galileo.

“The most successful stallions in the world will fail in Australia. If you brought Sadler’s Wells, Galileo, and Frankel down here, they’d all be deemed unsuccessful stallions because they just wouldn’t get the sprinters.”

Sireline of the future

Santry sees the same fate befalling So You Think, who has already begun to make a significant mark as a broodmare; doomed not to be respected as heavily in Australia as his best horses need more ground.

His daughters have produced Golden Slipper star Fireburn (Rebel Dane), million dollar earner Rivellino (Too Darn Hot {GB}), G1 Australian Derby runner-up Firm Agreement (Yes Yes Yes), and G1 Prix Jean Prat winner Puchkine (Fr) (Starspangledbanner) among 121 winners.

“He was a very successful racehorse. I used to ride for Bart Cummings, and he told me he could have won the Newmarket down the Flemington straight with him. He gets the odd horse like that - he’s won an Everest. It’s possible.

“The High Chaparral sireline is shooting the lights out currently. It’s the sireline of the future.”

That was something that the Australian breeding industry could not foresee in 2005.

“In his early years, he was deemed an undesirable stallion in Australia,” Santry said. “We originally discussed him for Australia, but we didn’t get enough support, so he went to New Zealand.

“They’re good breeders, the Kiwis, they want to breed to a high class 3-year-old, and they'll back up into them. They will go to him in his second, third and fourth seasons, when the Australians prefer to go to these unproven horses in their first year, every year.”

New Zealanders are reaping the returns now of investing in Super Seth, grandson of High Chaparral, who has produced four Group 1 winners this season alone - three of which are from his first crop of foals. The faith is also being repaid in those who have invested in Dundeel’s (NZ) greatest Australian-based son, Castelvecchio, who knocked the G1 Australian Derby out of the park with his daughter Aeliana (NZ).

Gallery: Successful grandsons of High Chaparral (Ire)

The fear of failure is at an all time high in the industry - and it is an easy observation that book sizes are typically maximal in a stallion’s first season, and then decline until his first runners prove him worthy of return.

“There’s trends there,” Santry can foresee a further narrowing of the breeding market, should the current status quo of race programming continue. “First season sires are covering more mares and the book sizes of the leading stallions continue to grow, but the foal crop continues to decline. The breed to race model has declined massively. It's been probably one of the greatest tragedies in the breeding industry in the last 10 years in Australia. Small breeders have just dropped off the planet, and people are not in semi to good proven stallions any more. They’d rather go to an unproven one.”

Pierro, Pride Of Dubai, and Starspangledbanner occupy similar positions in the Coolmore roster, in Santry’s mind.

“Starspangledbanner is a legitimate, world-class proven stallion,” he said. “His foals are going for an absolute fortune.”

And yet, the son of Choisir did not travel down south in 2022, until the exploits of offspring such as dual Group 2-winning Star Patrol and G1 Hong Kong Mile winner California Spangle (Ire) proved him worthy of the Southern Hemisphere’s interest. This year, his juvenile daughter Palm Angel has been a stark reminder that he can still produce the precocious 2-year-old sprinter that Australian racing craves - and caters to.

“These types of horses, these are very good stallions across the board,” Santry said. “They're on every farm, and there's nobody catering for their racing. We're not helping ourselves, the industry isn't helping itself.”