Cover image courtesy of Racing Photos
Emerging middle-distance horse Buccleuch (Peltzer) continued his progression through the ranks last Saturday with an easy victory in the Listed Taj Rossi Final at Flemington - the only 1600-metre juvenile race on the Victorian calendar for June and July this year.
He will line up again later this month in the only 1800-metre juvenile race in the region, the $150,000 Byerley Handicap, in an attempt to secure ballot-free entry to the spring’s G1 Victoria Derby.
Last year’s Byerley winner Red Aces (Dundeel {NZ}) won the race at his second start and picked up the 2040-metre G2 Moonee Valley Vase three starts later en route to sixth place in the Derby. He jumped into the Bylerley from a 1300-metre contest where he plainly was looking for more of a trip.
Red Aces winning the G2 Moonee Valley Vase | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
The only other 1600-metre event for 2-year-olds across Victoria, Queensland, and New South Wales in the last two months of the season is somewhat off the radar for Byerley-bound juveniles, being the G1 JJ Atkins at Eagle Farm.
In Queensland and Victoria, there is one 1500-metre race apiece, and there are no juvenile-only races beyond 1400 metres for June and July in New South Wales.
So, how is a trainer meant to properly prepare a young horse destined for middle distances, when the program gives them nowhere to run?
Breeding Drain or Racing Gain Series
A look to Japan and England
Japan is a country that both respects and promotes staying racing and longevity in the sport.
The Tōkyō Yūshun, otherwise known as the G1 Japan Derby, has five-step races that offer priority entry to the Derby. The 2025 winner Croix du Nord (Jpn) (Kitasan Black {Jpn}) came through the G1 Satsuki Shō (Japan 2000 Guineas) where he finished second, as did the 2023 winner Tastiera (Jpn) (Satono Crown {Jpn}).
The 2022 victor Do Deuce (Jpn) (Heart’s Cry {Jpn}) was third in the same race, having been an unbeaten juvenile in three starts over a mile or more.
Contrail (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}), the 2020 winner, won the Guineas as his Derby lead-up, stringing together three Group 1 wins after taking out the G1 Hopeful Stakes over 2000 metres as a juvenile.
All five of the most recent Derby winners ran at least once as a juvenile, often coming through the Hopeful or, at the very least an 1800-metre race.
It’s a stark difference to Australia’s juvenile programme, which highly favours sprinters.
Lambourn (Ire) winning the G1 Epsom Derby | Image courtesy of Coolmore
When looking at the G1 Epsom Derby, a similar pattern emerges. The 2025 victor Lambourn (Ire) (Australia {GB}) debuted in the middle of his juvenile year over a mile, and resumed this season over 1800 metres, with two runs before his Derby tilt.
City Of Troy (Ire) debuted in July of his juvenile year and ran over 1400 metres in his three starts that season - indicative of the versatility of his breeding - before leaping up in distance to win the Derby second up.
All three of the previous Derby winners raced as juveniles, with Desert Crown (GB) (Nathaniel {Ire}) the least experienced ahead of his Derby tilt, having only one start late in his 2-year-old year. Important to note though that it was over 1700 metres, and injury prevented him from a second juvenile run.
There are the lessons Australian racing can take from other racing jurisdictions on the preparation of Classic winners - if the programming will permit it.
Desert Crown (GB) | Image courtesy of Epsom Downs Racecourse
Problems in the programming
As highlighted in previous editions, local-bred horses face fierce competition from European imports for middle-distance prizemoney - and the overwhelming feedback from those reaching out to TTR about this series believe poor race programming is a major part of the problem.
“It's madness because we have a Melbourne Cup worth $8 million, a Caulfield Cup worth $5 million, a Cox Plate worth the same, a Sydney Cup worth $2 million,” form analyst Nic Ashman suggests.
“There's plenty of incentives to import top stayers in terms of prizemoney at the elite level. The problem is on an everyday level.”
“There's plenty of incentives to breed stayers in terms of prizemoney at the elite level. But the problem is on an everyday level.” - Nic Ashman
While England and Japan offer structured staying programs to progressively develop their 2-year-olds, the contrast here is stark: in the final two months of the season, New South Wales has 36 juvenile races scheduled and just 11 of them are beyond 1200 metres. Victoria has 23 juvenile events - of which three are at 1400 metres or more. Of Queensland’s 40 juvenile-only races, just nine are beyond 1200 metres.
Even New Zealand, long regarded for its staying bloodlines, offers no juvenile races beyond 1200 metres in June or July.
The options for older horses in Australia are just as scant; in 61 race meetings across New South Wales in July, there are 349 races programmed under a mile and 93 races at 1600 metres or more. If your horse runs over 2000 or further, there will be one in 20 races programmed available for you.
Nic Ashman | Image courtesy of Victoria Racing Club
“If you go to Warwick Farm on a Wednesday, there's maybe one race over 2100 or 2200 metres, and then on the Saturday, there's one staying race on the card and it's 1900 metres. So there's no incentives at a grassroots level.”
The lack of options for middle-distance horses and stayers is ensuring they remain highly unfashionable to breed, and thus the cycle is perpetuated. Ashman explains that with current programming, there's also a lack of alternatives if you miss your run.
“If you talk to trainers, one of the reasons why stayers aren’t popular to buy and breed is because if they have a set-back, it’s almost always the end of the preparation. Because you’re building to a goal and if you get halted, it’s so hard to build fitness back up and find another run.”
Setting up incentives
Director of Research and Development at Stable Analytics Byron Rogers is based in Kentucky and notices a distinct difference between American and Australian race programming for young racehorses.
“American 3-year-old racing is more about races that are 1600 metres to 2000 metres,” he said. “At the end of the 2-year-old season, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is run over 1700 metres, and that’s the race everyone’s trying to win. Outside of the Kentucky Derby, you’ve got races like the Travers and the Haskell - a number of the races that the 3-year-olds trying to win are generally past a mile and up to 10 furlongs (2000 metres).
“So the incentive in America is that you're trying to breed a horse that will go that far.”
Rogers suggests there is no such motivation to produce or buy that profile horse in Australia.
Byron Rogers | Image courtesy of Byron Rogers
“The one major truth about all of this is that we live in a world of incentives,” Rogers said. “If you're building an environment and structuring racing which doesn’t give real incentive for people to produce stayers, then they won't.
“If you're building an environment and structuring racing which doesn’t give real incentive for people to produce stayers, then they won't.” - Byron Rogers
“Obviously, the breeding industry and the racing industry are intertwined, and in Australia, the incentive at the moment is for horses to race at shorter course distances. It's (comparatively) very simple to train a horse that's only going to run 1200 metres. It's very simple for the racing administrators to put on a lot of races like that because they know the field will be 12 plus horses.
“So all of the incentives at the moment in Australia are aligned towards producing 1200 or 1400-metre horses and, outside of the Derbys and the Oaks, there's no real incentive to try to help people who are breeding and racing horses that want to run a mile or more.
“You don’t need to change the stakes races, it’s the maidens and the benchmark events in between that you need to change. You need to make those races that are at a mile or further have more prizemoney, and that will be a start.”
Ashman is in agreement; the grassroots is where the most trouble is in terms of programming, and it is at that level that the most amount of prizemoney needs to be applied.
“Give people the incentive; a maiden over 2000 metres or more should carry a $20,000 bonus,” he said. “And then that way, when you breed a stayer, if you break your maiden at 2000 metres, you get an immediate $20,000 bonus. Boom.”
“Give people the incentive; a maiden over 2000 metres or more should carry a $20,000 bonus.” - Nic Ashman
To the average owner and trainer, a $20,000 lift on a midweek metropolitan maiden (currently $28,400 to the winner on a Wednesday at Canterbury) makes a world of difference.
Or let's revisit an earlier suggestion: what if the $10 million Golden Eagle became the $3 million Golden Eagle, and the difference provided a $70,000 bonus toward 100 races for locally-bred middle-distance horses?
What's the solution?
But just placing a bonus scheme on top of the current programming is not even possible if those races aren't programmed at all.
Rogers can foresee a better way; building an algorithm that analyses the horses currently in training, their progress through their preparations, and their trainers’ preferences to tailor-make a racing schedule that maximises fields.
“It’s actually a simple, solvable problem,” he said. “It’s like Netflix; if you watch one show, it predicts and suggests what show you’re going to watch next. It’s the same principle. You have a recommendation system that optimises for field size.
“Every punter wants to see a decent-sized field - five horses running around Canterbury isn’t going to generate much turnover for the industry - so you need a recommendation system that builds races optimised to have 12 horse fields. That's a really simple machine learning problem.”
“You need a recommendation system that builds races optimised to have 12 horse fields. That's a really simple machine learning problem.” - Byron Rogers
Many of the data points would already be available to Racing Australia and state principal racing authorities from stable returns and trial entries. Adding the data on training habits and horses’ optimal distances would not be difficult at all, Rogers believes.
“You know Chris Waller doesn’t start horses at Canterbury that he thinks are going to want to run a mile or more, he prefers to put them on a larger track where they’re able to get out and use their stride length a bit more. You know, there are trainers that prefer to go to Wyong because it’s a tight turning track and they have short striding sprinters.
Chris Waller | Image courtesy of Georgia Young Photography
“All these data points are out there. You know where all the trainers are based. You know how far they want to travel, you know tracks they don’t like going to. All these data points are known because of how the trainer has entered a horse previously, and all of it can be aggregated very simply to build the race calendar up so you are producing 12 horse fields.”
Rogers envisages this as a boon to both owners and punters; punters get more full fields, and owners see their horses better placed to perform. Everybody wins.
The same system could be incentivised to encourage programming more middle-distance races.
“You’ve got the data of who’s training the horses and where they’re racing, but you also have their pedigrees,” Rogers said. “You could use their pedigrees to model out suitable distances, and then you can actually start building in these races more frequently. Then if you incentivised the prizemoney at the same time, I think it would only take a season or two for trainers to work out how to adapt to training stayers to compete for the additional prizemoney and aim for the Classic races.”
“If you incentivised the prizemoney (and programming) at the same time, I think it would only take a season or two for trainers to work out how to adapt to training stayers.” - Byron Rogers
Rogers imagines adding a recommendation system for trainers that directly suggests races to them, cutting down on time spent pouring over the racing calendar. In his system, it would also be set up to provide better pathways for developing younger horses that need a trip, as opposed to them feeling “forced” to enter Group races they might not be ready for.
“One of the current problems for these young horses is that they win their maiden and then there’s no other spot for them but a stakes race,” Rogers said. “You’re trying to develop your 3-year-old, but those may be the only options and that’s not for the long-term benefit of the horse.”
Keeping horses in the industry longer
Another positive result would be an increase in racehorses’ longevity in the industry.
“If you have one of these staying types, once they’re past their Classic year and if they've not got the ability to compete in those top-class races against the better European horses that are getting imported to Australia, there's nowhere for them,” Rogers said.
“That's the hardest part about it.
“At that point in time, you've got to either sell them off to Hong Kong as a Hong Kong Derby horse, if they're that level, or think about moving them on to a regional trainer.”
“If they've (local-bred stayers) not got the ability to compete in those top class races against the better European horses that are getting brought out to Australia, there's nowhere for them.” - Byron Rogers
For many trainers, it becomes easier to move the horse on or retire them altogether than try to make the shrinking pool of races statewide that offer the right distance. Ultimately, this is a net negative for the industry; the shrinkage can be felt in all sectors.
“If you can provide the races for these kinds of horses, they stay in the industry longer,” Ashman said. “Which means our racing population is bigger, which is better for the industry because first of all, every time they race, there'll be a few people that throw a few bucks on them so they generate turnover.
“Second of all, they have a life in racing for longer, increasing field sizes (and taking pressure off of the rehoming community). And thirdly, trainers and jockeys are making income off of them as well.
“If you can provide the races for these kinds of horses (stayers), they stay in the industry longer.” - Nic Ashman
“So as an owner, as long as you're breaking even on the horse through prizemoney, so long as that horse is generating turnover and paying its way in the industry, and so long as trainers and jockeys can earn from the horse, because there is actually races for them, the industry is much better for it.”
Putting together the right programming is the starting point, and financial incentives for stayers is the next logical step.
“The technology is there, the data is there,” Rogers said. “It’s just going to be the willpower of getting it done.”
What changes would you like to see to the Australian racing landscape to encourage more domestically-bred middle-distance horses? Send your thoughts or ideas to vicky@ttrausnz.com.au.
