Saturday Preview: Sydney’s forecast to determine Rosebud fate

Cover image courtesy of Sportpix

Rain clouds running of the Rosebud

A select field of just seven acceptances - which has dropped to six after Friday morning scratchings - are set to line up in Saturday’s Listed The Rosebud, the first stepping stone on the route to the G1 Golden Rose Stakes next month, but the Rosehill Gardens meeting itself hangs in doubt after rain continues to lash Sydney over the past few days.

Last weekend’s Randwick meeting was canned on Saturday morning after an already sodden track was further rained on, and there are doubts Rosehill will proceed at all. With the track currently rated a Heavy 10, it could be the wettest running since Anders prevailed over Ole Kirk in 2020 on a Heavy 9 - before him, Thronum eeked out an exceptionally slow-run Rosebud in 2016 on a Heavy 10 track, running the finally 600 metres 3 seconds slower than Anders (important to note also that the race was 100 metres longer for Thronum's run).

Peter Snowden-trained 3-year-old Grand Prairie (Written Tycoon) is the only acceptor to run on anything wetter than a Soft 6, having placed second at the beginning of the month at Rosehill to Stardeel (Dundeel {NZ}). The Yulong bred and owned colt has found his footing in the latter part of his juvenile career, trialling before Christmas but not making his first raceday appearance until mid autumn. As the only acceptor untested in stakes company, he receives the lightest weight in the field, 7kg less than the top weight.

Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou have been bullish their colts Skyhook (Written Tycoon) and Blitzburg (Snitzel) can announce themselves for the spring in the Rosebud, but both will need to dig deep, neither having raced on a soft track outside of a trial before. Pallaton (Wootton Bassett {GB}) has pleased his trainer Michael Freedman in both of his return trials, comfortably winning his most recent one on a Heavy 9.

“I think encouraging is the right word about his trials,’’ Freedman told Racing NSW earlier in the week. “He’s travelled keenly and when Tommy (Berry) asked him to quicken up a bit, he’s been able to do that, so they are good signs heading into a spring prep.”

Brad Widdup’s Nashville Jack (Farnan) poses a logical threat as the winner of his last start on a Soft 6; the colt defeated a reasonably classy field by quickening away almost two lengths ahead of Hello Romeo (NZ) (Hello Youmzain {Fr}) and will trim fitter for the performance. Farnan won both of his G1 Golden Slipper Stakes lead-up races on Soft 7 tracks, so perhaps his son has inherited a love of getting his toe into the ground.

Eleven jostle for black-type in red hot Quezette

Down south, the track is in the Soft range ahead of Saturday’s racing, and a field of 11 3-year-old fillies are not deterred from having a crack at claiming some early season black-type in the G3 Quezette Stakes at Caulfield. Four of the field are unbeaten at this stage, including Scenic Point (Written Tycoon), who snatched the Listed Redoute’s Choice Stakes from new stablemate Aleppo Pine (Blue Point {Ire}) in the autumn.

“She's (Scenic Point) a very strong, powerful filly,” said co-trainer Ben Hayes, who’s looking forward to a strong edition of the Quezette, a race that has previously turned out the likes of Sunlight (Zoustar), Bella Nipotina (Pride Of Dubai), and Alinghi (Encosta De Lago).

“She's developed and she'd be one of our more exciting horses coming through the stables of the young 3-year-olds. It's one of the hotter Quezettes we've had in recent years; there's quite a few horses going in with good form, and we're one of them as well.”

Good form comes in spades for G3 Widden Stakes winner The Playwright (Written By), who has been kept under wraps by the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott stable since her fourth placing in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes by two and a half lengths, her quote-unquote worst finish in five starts. She was the leader for the majority of the Diamond at the same venue - perhaps 100 metres carved off the race will fall in her favour.

Early in her career, she defeated Icarian Dream (Blue Point {Ire}) who missed the autumn after being withdrawn from the Blue Diamond on the eve of the race. The break has done her the world of good, trainer Ciaron Maher’s assistant Jack Turnbull told Racing And Sports on Thursday.

“She was able to have six weeks off and has come back and prepped up beautifully,” he said. “She started out at Ballarat, has come down to Cranbourne, and has had two nice jump-outs. The last one was quite sharp and she did a nice bit of work on Monday.”

Jockey Ben Allen concurs, telling Racing.com, “She's only small, but she's a tough little filly, and I think her form speaks for itself. We can just give her that soft run from the good draw, and save her for late.”

Yellow Sam’s chance to bow out on high in PB Lawrence

The second top lot at this week’s Inglis Digital online auction when selling to Dodmark Thoroughbreds for $305,000, Yellow Sam (Ready For Victory) has one more grand opportunity in the G2 PB Lawrence Stakes to upgrade her pedigree before a likely retirement to the breeding barn. The 6-year-old is the only stakes winner for her sire, himself a Listed-winning son of More Than Ready (USA); she took out the G3 Mystic Journey Stakes in 2024.

“That was the plan, to sell her to someone who wants to join in with the craziness and have a stab at a race like this,” trainer Lindsay Smith told Racing.com on Thursday. “She got sold, so that was a tick, to some great owners, Dodmark (Thoroughbreds) from Queensland, they'll take her to stud.

“If she was ever going to beat better horses, this was the race. She's going to go around, hang onto a few of their tails. Hopefully she can run a place, and if she gets close, so be it.”

Since resuming with a win in the $150,000 Gold Topaz in June, Yellow Sam has added a win and two thirds to her record, most recently being beaten just over a length in the G3 Bletchingly Stakes by Bridal Waltz (Snitzel).

While she might lack the high-flying class of some of her opponents - who include Private Eye (Al Maher) and Here To Shock (NZ) (Shocking) - Yellow Sam has well and truly punched above her weight to date. The mare has won eight of 19 starts and has only been outside of the placings on three occasions, two of which were fourths at stakes level. This is her first crack at Group 2 level, but you’ll never know if you don't go.

Can Shining Smile keep his winning streak intact?

Five in a row is impressive at any level, but few Victorian horses have been more ultra impressive and ultra consistent over the autumn than Lindsay Park’s Shining Smile (Spirit Of Boom), who sailed to three Listed wins earlier in the year before a short break. Resuming in July, he extended his winning streak to five in a Flemington handicap and has had a winning jump-out to tick him over ahead of his second lifetime Group assignment.

Last time he ran at Group level, Shining Smile fell afoul of his G3 Vain Stakes opponent and stablemate Tycoon Star (Written Tycoon), who went on to place in the Blue Diamond.

“He's got really good form from last prep,” co-trainer Ben Hayes told media on Thursday about Tycoon Star. The application of blinkers hopes to improve upon the colt’s autumn performances in the hopes of scoring again at Group level.

“He's a horse that's a little bit cheeky, so I think the blinkers really help him focus. So, we'll be putting those blinkers on, and look for him to be running well.”

But can he measure up to racefit Shining Smile?

“He's a remarkable horse,” Hayes said of the stable star. “As a 2-year-old, he was very consistent. He won three stakes races and has been in the top three of every start. I think the main goal with him is to keep him down the straight for a race like the Coolmore. If he could win that, he'll become a very valuable horse.”

Two and a half months out, and the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes is already firming into view for the son of Spirit Of Boom. He carries one kilo less than his stablemate, who looms as the largest threat amongst the eight horse field, and won his last start carrying four more kilos than second place. If he can strike again in the Vain Stakes, his Coolmore odds are sure to shorten.

Second season sires: how have they started the season?

Ole Kirk was crowned the decisive Champion First Season Sire for 2024/25, but can he follow in the footsteps of former titleholder Too Darn Hot (GB) and repeat the effort in his second season? Every weekend is a chance to make big strides in the league tables, and this Saturday, he has four runners, including Vain Stakes hopeful Sonofkirk, looking to extend his record.

Table: Second season sires with runners on Saturday

Farnan exceeded Ole Kirk in two dimensions last season; he finished with more individual winners and with more stakes performers, and has had a flying start to the 2025/26 season already with four winners to date. His son Nashville Jack leads his chances at the weekend in the Rosebud.

Sandbar’s Shaggy has scratched from the Rosebud in favour of heading south for a crack at the Vain Stakes. He was the autumn underdog and first winner for his sire, a three-quarter-brother to Farnan, and will be bidding to get a first seasonal win on the board for his sire again on Saturday.

Fierce Impact (Jpn) is the only second season sire with a runner in the G3 Northland Breeders’ Stakes at Ruakaka, where Yokozuna lines up for Donna Logan. The gelding was a winner on debut back in July, and has taken no issue with a Heavy track during New Zealand's wet winter.