Cover image courtesy of Sportpix
Raging Force (Cosmic Force) is aiming to become just the second horse to complete the G3 San Domenico Stakes - G2 Run To The Rose double, but history says the favoured runners will be tough to beat.
Godolphin has dominated the 3-year-old Set Weights feature recently winning five of the last six editions including the last four. But four of those five winners started $4 or less with last year’s hero, Traffic Warden (Street Boss {USA}), the roughest at $8. Tempted at $5.50 is their top seed this year while Beiwacht (Bivouac) isn’t hopeless $12. That said, only one of the last 11 Run To The Rose winners has started double figure odds.
The winner of this race has a great record in the G1 Golden Rose with six horses completing the double in the last decade.
Track conditions and speed map set up the challenge
Rain at acceptance time has shifted conditions. Lane one presents a slight disadvantage, with lane two more favourable. The primary winning ground is expected to be lanes three to nine. Horses will not need to cover additional ground, as lanes one and two hold up adequately around the bend. The optimal approach is to save ground on the corner before shifting wider into the straight.
North England (Farnan) has no choice but to press forward from his wide barrier (17). First-up last preparation he scorched the turf early, averaging 11.6 per 200 metres through the first half of the G2 Todman Stakes.
Raging Force must take a sit off that sort of tempo to give himself every chance over 1200 metres against the strongest field he has met. Beiwacht and Devil Night (Extreme Choice) map to get economical runs, while Tempted (Street Boss {USA}) can potentially follow Raging Force through, which would improve her prospects. Wodeton (Wootton Bassett {GB}) has little option other than to drift back.
Speed Map | Image supplied
Raging Force sets the benchmark
Raging Force’s peak rating of 92 remains the highest of this crop. No runner from the juvenile season produced a fast overall time, but he did break standard in the San Domenico and closed with a last 200 metres above benchmark. That profile is precisely what you want to see when assessing scope to step up in trip. The concern is that he was coming off the boil late the last 100m, and a strongly-run 1200m remains a slight query.
Wodeton faces form queries
Wodeton reached a rating of 90 as a juvenile and improved to 91 first-up when unlucky behind Raging Force. The query is that his peak juvenile figure came on debut, and it was not until the G1 Golden Slipper that he returned to that level. If he regresses off the 91 first-up, it is difficult to see him winning. The speed map does not set up favourably for him either.
Wodeton | Image courtesy of Sportpix
Tempted ready to improve
Tempted’s peak ratings of 87 and 88 last season both came over 1200m in fast-run races, which is the set-up she looks likely to get here. We are comfortable with spring 3-year-olds improving sharply on their 2-year-old figures, so being four lengths off the required mark is not a major concern.
The query is whether she is ready to perform at that level off just one trial.
Tempted | Image courtesy of Sportpix
Beiwacht the value danger
Beiwacht caught three wide no cover in the G3 San Domenico and stuck on gamely. He maps to get a far more economical run here albeit he will need a touch of luck not to get caught behind tiring runners. He went to a new career peak in the San Domenico, which means he’s showing natural development. His sire, Bivouac, won this race and then the Golden Rose. At double-figure odds, he shapes as the one capable of causing an upset.
Beiwacht | Image courtesy of Sportpix
Skyhook building nicely
Skyhook peaked at 85 as a 2-year-old and resumed with an 86 in the Listed Rosebud. He improved with racing last preparation, so projecting him to reach the 88–89 range here is realistic. He could climb a touch higher, and with Wodeton and Raging Force both a chance to regress on the ratings, that keeps him in the mix.
Skyhook | Image courtesy of Sportpix
Market moves hold the clues
Tempted is one to monitor in the market. Off only one trial and with a peak rating below what the raced brigade have already produced this preparation, she is expected to drift. The positive is that both of her peaks came in fast-run 1200-metre races, so provided she is fit enough she can launch late down the middle.
The market will be the guide: anything above $7 suggests letting her go, while sub-$5 is a sign to get involved.
If playing early, Beiwacht appeals each-way at $12 with the potential to start shorter.
