A delicate balance: James Harron on transforming a yearling purchase into a stallion

Cover image courtesy of James Harron Bloodstock

James Harron can comfortably say he knows the methods of procuring the right colt to transform into a successful stallion prospect, but at the same time, he is intimately familiar with how things are not quite that simple or straightforward. The 2025 breeding season features his most recent stallion prospect success, with the retirement of another colt from the James Harron Colts Partnership, Bodyguard, to stud at Armidale Stud in Tasmania.

A sign of the times

Harron is pleased that the $1.6 million yearling, a juvenile Group 3-winning son of I Am Invincible, is taking fresh blood down to the island territory, where only 16 stallions are listed as standing in the Stud Book this year. Bodyguard commands the highest fee in the region, just ahead of fellow first season sire and G1 Caulfield Guineas winner Griff.

“I think it’s a great opportunity for Tasmania to get him because I think it's a horse they wouldn’t have got a few years ago,” Harron said. While it’s a boon for breeders down south, in a different economic environment, Bodyguard may have been more sought after in the eastern states.

“He’s a real sign of the times,” Harron said. “He was a horse who had so much hype, a magnificent animal with great genetics. A lot of people were in the position where they said (to us), ‘are they going to garner enough mares themselves to get him there?’ Breeders have been hit a little bit at the lower end of the market here in Australia.”

Harron’s most famous successes are G1 Golden Slipper Stakes winner Capitalist and dual Group 1 winner King’s Legacy, and he’s had a hand in developing the careers of other stallions - including Dracarys, Pariah, and Defcon - but just winning a Group race doesn’t necessitate a colt’s place at stud. The opportunities are even less so at present, with only 298 active stallions currently listed on the Stud Book - down from 404 last season, with 440 stallions covering 18,139 mares in 2023.

“People are a lot more demanding on what they will support (in the middle of the market),” said Harron. The annual numbers of mares covered and live foals born has been on a slow decline for some time, as TTR covered in the Breeding Drain.

Harron understands that the rising cost of production is the greatest limiting factor in the breeding equation.

“The cost of going through the whole process of breeding that yearling has risen so much,” he said. “Even if you offer a stallion on a lower fee, it's what it actually costs (for the whole process) at the end of the day and I think it's making people very careful about what stallions they are taking on.

“They really want to be sure before they stick their neck out on them.”

Justifying the spend

But the colts partnership persists, and Harron is determined to inject more stallions into the ranks. The partnership bought 12 colts at public auction in 2025 for a total spend of $7.19 million, averaging just shy of $600,000 per colt. Harron has always appreciated that you need to cast your net wide in order to be successful.

“We’re in a funny place,” said Harron. “The market really needs more stallions. There’s no question about it, we need more good stallions. Home Affairs and Stay Inside did a good job on Monday and hopefully that’s some exciting green shoots that could blossom because we're in desperate need of more at the top.”

Harron’s most expensive purchase for 2025 was the colt Testament (Snitzel), who cost $1.7 million. Group 1 winner Schwarz’s full brother Lafite (Zoustar) cost $1.4 million, while Incognito (Stay Inside), third in his debut trial at Kensington last Monday was a $1 million purchase.

“With the colt partnership, we are looking for those physiques and those pedigrees which, if they're successful on the track, they'll be popular at the next stage,” said Harron. “It’s obviously a very vital part of our model to sell those successful horses on to stud farms and retain some equity in those horses.

“It was very competitive, but we are looking for a certain type of horse. With that being said, we were very happy with what we were able to buy. We shopped at every sale, Gold Coast, New Zealand, Melbourne, Classic, and Easter, and purchased at different levels.”

Striking a compromise

The partnership’s cheapest purchase was the colt Drumfire (Farnan) who Harron found in Alma Vale’s Inglis Classic Yearling Sale draft with a price tag of $160,000. One of Farnan’s first crop stars North England emerged from the same sale last year, when bought by the Newgate colts partnership for $280,000.

“We did find at just below that top echelon (price point), there was some really good value,” Harron said. “We bought a Snitzel colt out of Melbourne Premier for $260,000, which was great buying. There were some nice opportunities when you played at all the sales.”

When asked what things he would forgive when looking for (relative) bargains, Harron kept the focus on high quality type and action, while being more forgiving around a yearling’s pedigree.

“Maybe the mare has had a few more foals and she might get knocked for that, or maybe the stallion is having a quiet couple of months and the market is over-reactive to that. There’s elements of that (fashion), and we try to do all our homework and see what fits our mould.

“There were some horses who went under the radar that we were quite pleased to get.”

The Snitzel colt that Harron purchased at the Inglis Premier Yearling Sale for $260,000, from Segenhoe Stud, is a half-brother to Group 2 winner Ringerdingding (Sebring) and is the 10th foal of 20-year-old Group 3-placed mare Maybe I (Red Ransom {USA}).

There’s a trick in working out if a quiet patch by a stallion is a temporary lull or a sign of an ongoing fall in quality.

“We look back on our previous notes on the stallion’s progeny,” Harron said. “We might assess that they have a big number of highly rated horses still to come out and run for them. Or we might say that this horse actually didn't have a very nice first crop but the second crop looked a lot better, which might be breeders reacting to that first crop and sending a different type of mare.

“There's a bit that goes into that and the research we’ve already got. It might help us take a bit of a risk assessment - obviously we’ve got to be careful because at the end of the day we want (our horses) to be hot property.”

While it remains safe to invest in sons of horses like Snitzel, Zoustar, and I Am Invincible, Harron has to be mindful of how stallions outside of the elite echelon are performing, and what offspring they have coming through.

“The best son of those best stallions is going to get a lot of attention (when retiring to stud) compared to the best son of a horse on the way down,” he said. “It’s indicative of what you might pay too and how much risk you might take on them.”

The makings of a racehorse

Sourcing the next great stallion prospect starts in the parade ring, but a colt must have the right temperament and attributes to handle remaining an entire on the track. If they can manage that and show the kind of ability that justifies a $600,000 price tag, they have to be aimed at the right races.

“It’s becoming more polarised,” Harron said. “There’s hot races and then there’s the races that aren’t going to get you there. That can also come down to the profile of the horse too. It’s like the yearling market. Both have become more polarised.

“You’ve got to make sure that you're pointing in the right direction, whether that’s shooting for the stars or if that’s playing defence, and making sure you aren’t exposing a horse that's not ready for (an opportunity).”

More than once, Harron has been faced with the tough realisation that the best thing for a promising colt is the ultimate gear change. Aristocrat (Zoustar) is one such horse; fourth on debut last season to Regulated Affair (Wootton Bassett {GB}), he failed to fire in two further outings at two and has benefitted greatly from the gelding.

“Aristocrat is just a beautiful horse,” he said. “We made the decision to do the right thing and geld him, and give him a nice break. He's blossomed into the most magnificent animal, and I think he's a genuine black-type animal who will suit Hong Kong (down the track).”

A previous example is Gunnison (Not A Single Doubt), an $850,000 yearling who won the G2 Todman Stakes post-gelding, before being sold for $1.4 million via Inglis Digital to C McAnulty and subsequently winning four more races in Hong Kong.

“Sometimes, you’ve just got to take your medicine and try and produce the best horse they can be,” Harron said. “If they have their mind on the job, they’ll improve a lot. It’s a tough one. It’s part and parcel of the whole thing. We’ve always had to make these decisions. Gunnison was one of those we had to geld as a 2-year-old, and he came out and won the Todman, but when he was in training he was so hot and cold, he probably wouldn’t have gotten there (without gelding).”

Ongoing support

And when a colt books his spot at stud, what then? The yearling market can be a harsh environment, particularly after the rush of excitement in a sire’s first season fades and before any offspring makes it to the track.

When announcing their fees earlier this year, Newgate Farm reduced the fee of Capitalist despite another season as a leading sire of 2-year-olds, justified in part by the dip in quality of stock about to come through the system. The fluctuations of both interest and service fee - which are thoroughly interlinked - can have a “rollercoaster effect” on a stallion’s career, in Harron’s opinion.

“The market is very reactive, so all of a sudden people form a view, and then their stock doesn't end up in the good stables,” he said. “It’s a real domino effect. And that’s the importance of looking at stallions who have been well managed with good numbers and consistency. It gives them a much better chance.

“If a stallion isn’t getting supported right through their career, it causes this rollercoaster effect, unless they are elite. The really good stallions such as Extreme Choice seem to upgrade any sort of mare, but there's very few Extreme Choices in the world.

“The rest are the ones that could hold a good spot and be strong stallions in the roster. They're finding it very hard to find their groove in the market, because there’s a flood to them in the first season, then breeders completely jump off after that.

“I'm a big believer that the super elite will always find a way, but we're missing a lot of horses in the middle that are proven and you could go buy a yearling (by them) quite happily with a view that you’ll get a good horse.”

And in the end, it’s all about risk. A horse like Rebel Dane had very small books in his first five seasons at stud, but then the exploits of his multiple Group 1-winning daughter Fireburn meant that his next book jumped to 111 mares.

Another example is Pride Of Dubai, whose book sizes have fluctuated wildly through his career, ranging from 202 mares at his busiest season to 30 in his least popular season.

“For that reason, we spend a lot of time analysing stallions,” Harron said. “We will take a risk on a first season sire that we really like. We paid good money for Incognito this year. He is a magnificent animal and we have got a very high view on Stay Inside. He fits our model. He was a Golden Slipper winner, (and) a fantastic racehorse by Extreme Choice. We will take more risks on a younger sire for those reasons because you’ve got to keep looking for what’s next.

“But there is definitely a lack of top sires at the top. And you can’t just choose what you want. It’s competitive. It's a strong market with a smaller amount of horses, which creates strong demand.”

The top end of the stallion market is further reduced with the sad loss of both Snitzel and Wootton Bassett (GB) in recent months.

“It will turn around and I really do believe these two horses (Home Affairs and Stay Inside) could be it. They could fill a big gap. They were the real deal as racehorses, by Champion Sires and that’s a great recipe.”