Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
The new season 2-year-olds were unveiled at Randwick and Flemington, with the G3 Breeders' Plate clearly the pick.
Incognito (Stay Inside) ran a slightly faster time (57.1 seconds v 57.3 seconds) than Shiki (Too Darn Hot {GB}) for the 1000 metres at Randwick on Saturday.
What made his performance stand out even more was that Incognito gave the filly a clear head start. Freeze the vision at the 600 metres and Shiki is roughly six lengths in front. Yet by the finish, he’s a length clear of her. His final 600 metres was nearly eight lengths above standard and ranked eighth-fastest for the day - on a card that included a Group 2 WFA sprint featuring Everest horses.
Don’t think Shiki went poorly. She led on a day when only two front-runners won, and when seven of ten winners came down lanes five or wider in the straight. There’s hidden merit in her run - though, undeniably, the colts have gone better.
Flemington’s Maribyrnong Trial Stakes falls short on ratings
Flemington staged the Listed Maribyrnong Trial Stakes, which proved to be vastly inferior to either of the Sydney juvenile contests. The winner, Eurocanto (Per Incanto {USA}), had every opportunity to run time with the lead speed around six lengths above standard, yet he was still three lengths below standard on the line.
As a slight caveat for this, later in the meeting we discovered there was a travellator down the outside, and this group of juveniles were clearly on the wrong side of the track. Regardless, Incognito is the one to follow from Saturday’s 2-year-old features.
Apocalyptic utilises tactical advantage
Apocalyptic (Extreme Choice) again showed she is the dominant filly of her generation. Sadly, no one asked any questions of her. The tempo was pedestrian-like with the leader, Reflect, going through the first 1000 metres around 14 lengths below standard.
It's borderline insanity to think you can let a filly that has beaten you over 1200 metres and 1400 metres sit outside the lead on this type of tempo and beat her. That’s not to say Apocalyptic wouldn’t have won had they gone hard. The point here is you have to make her win it, not hand it to her. The field sectional from the 800 metres to 600 metres was 12.6 seconds, but then the pace went on, and from the 600 metres to 400 metres it was 11.9 seconds.
Because the race was nothing more than a 600 metres sprint, these fillies will be able to head to Melbourne and run in a Thousand Guineas. I like Enviable (Frankel {GB}) for an Ethereal Stakes and perhaps an Oaks if they go that way? If they stick to the mile with her, then a more positive ride could see her at least place in the Group 1 feature.
Does 1600 metres stretch Autumn Glow’s brilliance
Speaking of girls in mile races, let’s take a look at Autumn Glow’s (The Autumn Sun) G1 Epsom Handicap win. A small field and the scratching of Magnatear (Written Tycoon) paved the way for Kerrin McEvoy to rightly take luck out of the equation and park Chris Waller’s unbeaten star outside the lead.
Fully Lit (Hellbent) led, and went through the first 1000 metres about three and half lengths below standard. Kerrin McEvoy nailed it. Autumn Glow posted a comfortable 1.4 lengths victory, but her last 600 metres only ranked 30th for the day and was a mere two lengths above standard. Not what you’d expect from a horse of her quality in a race of that shape. Her last 600m in the G2 Theo Marks Stakes was seven lengths above standard and eight lengths above in the G3 Toy Show.
Granted, they were Group 2 and Group 3 races, but regardless, she wasn’t quite as explosive. We’re still learning with this mare, but it's likely one of these reasons;
1600 metres stretches her brilliance. She was on trial at the trip.
She’s better on the fresh side. There is potentially a pattern emerging in her data. She rated down third-up last spring, the only other time she’s been this deep in a preparation.
What’s interesting is seeing where Waller goes now. He’s the master of not only winning major races but also pressing the right buttons to learn from his stock to better prepare for the future. The problem with going to a Cox Plate is you could get beaten two to three lengths and not learn anything, while also not achieving much.
Chris Waller | Image courtesy of Georgia Young Photography
If you freshen up and go back to 1500 metres for a Golden Eagle, you’re playing into the space we already have answers in. For mine, the best play would be an G1 Empire Rose Stakes. You find out how she travels, and how she handles the Melbourne way and test her again at the mile on a fair track in probably the easiest Group 1 left for her this year. The second run at a new trip is often a horse’s best.
Danehill Stakes: Clock-busting caution
McGaw’s (I Am Immortal) overall time of 1:02.44 in the G2 Danehill Stakes over 1100 metres rated six lengths above standard, though it warrants some caution. He and War Machine (Harry Angel {Ire}) stopped the clock in flying time, helped by what looked like a travellator towards the outside rail. Not knocking the race, but treating the figures warily.
Getta Good Feeling (So You Think {NZ}) might be an Oaks filly off her victory in the G2 Edward Manifold Stakes over 1600 metres. Off a slow tempo, she ran bang on average time for this grade, courtesy of a last 200 metres that not only looked good visually, but ranked ninth for the day.
Sir Delius and the Turnbull Stakes
Sir Delius (GB) (Frankel {GB}) again won a moderately rated Group 1 in the Turnbull Stakes, but again the fact that a Melbourne Cup prospect is beating our weight-for-age stars in slowly run races tells you he’s got the turn of foot to blitz a Cup field.
On a side note, I love that the Turnbull Stakes - worth just $750,000 - drew Australia’s best horses. The nominations for the $2 million Hill Stakes are woeful in comparison.
This column uses data to form opinion each week, and the data here shouts one thing: owners aren’t solely driven by quick returns. Racing is powered by passion, where prestige and tradition can’t be measured in dollars.
