Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
He looked the 2-year-old to follow from last season, and Saturday’s G1 Caulfield Guineas was the crowning moment for Autumn Boy (The Autumn Sun), while another 3-year-old put the hand up to suggest a Group 1 is not far away.
More than one exciting prospect emerges from Guineas
Nothing went right for Autumn Boy in the G1 Golden Rose Stakes despite being the biggest firmer in the market for the 3-year-old headliner at Rosehill.
Chris Waller left the blinkers on for the Guineas and then the colt drew gate 1, which was a tricky ask with the map of the race. But four horses had won the Guineas from that barrier since 2010, so it's hardly a damning stat.
The colt made it five, and beat standard time by more than three lengths. In fairness, he had every opportunity to run time, with the leaders skipping through the first 1000 metres more than 11 lengths above standard. Again, we are reminded of the benefit of saving ground in fast run races. They are stamina tests where every opportunity to save ground must be taken.
Autumn Boy winning the G1 Caulfield Guineas | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Playing devil's advocate against my own words, Caulfield’s meeting last weekend saw backmarkers who came wide noticeably disadvantaged. Eight of the 10 winners settled in the first six, and five of them were in lanes two or three.
Observer (Ghaiyyath {Ire}) was the hard luck story in the Guineas after failing to secure a run at the top of the straight. The fact that he was travelling so well into the straight, after camping just off a monster tempo when running second-up, suggests he is G1 Cox Plate worthy. Three-year-olds that can absorb pressure and utilise carrying light weight are perfect for the velodrome rumble that is Australia’s premier weight-for-age battle.
Without digressing too much, the Cox Plate is a lot more open than people are suggesting. Defending champ Via Sistina (Ire) (Fastnet Rock) isn’t running the same figures as she was 12 months ago. Sir Delius (GB) (Frankel) is targeting a G1 Melbourne Cup and is having his second run at 2000 metres, so there is the suggestion that he might be too dour for the Cox Plate. Plus, he looked far more comfortable at Flemington than Caulfield.
Antino (NZ) (Redwood {GB}) is going well, but is beatable as we’ve seen every run this preparation. When Fiorente (Ire) won the Cup, he placed in the Cox Plate, which that year was won by a 3-year-old maiden Shamus Award (Snitzel).
Point Barrow storms late as Surf's Up catches the eye
Back to Saturday’s racing - but sticking to the 3-year-olds; Point Barrow (Blue Point {Ire}) defied the pattern by coming from near last on the turn to win the 1200-metre event for 3-year-old fillies. The tempo was bang on average, which gives her victory even more credit. She produced the third fastest last 600 metres of the day and beat another emerging talent in Surf's Up (Flying Artie).
While the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes is being eyed off for the winner, Surf's Up could be the bet of the carnival if Waller sends her to the G3 Red Roses Stakes. She’s been in the black book after finishing second in a hot maiden when resuming this preparation and hasn’t left the punters’ bible since.
Point Barrow will have to beat Beiwacht (Bivouac), who still holds the best rating of any 3-year-old this season, and by some margin. If he runs to his Golden Rose figures, they won’t beat him. I suspect he’ll start shorter than the $3 plus that is currently out there.
Globe holds form, and She’s Bulletproof lifts
Globe (NZ) (Charm Spirit {Ire}) beat horses not at their peak in the G1 Might And Power Stakes; he ran standard time off an even tempo.
Treasurethe Moment (Alabama Express) has to spell off of her performance in this. The figures she ran first-up in the G1 Memsie Stakes versus her latest two runs are like chalk and cheese.
The day was rounded out with She’s Bulletproof (Shooting To Win) putting a setback behind her to win the G3 Northwood Plume Stakes. Her late data suggests that she has improvement to come. Her only run down the straight was solid - perhaps we see her during Cup week?
Hidden Motive shines, while Farnicle is worth following
We’ve discussed the Coolmore Stud Stakes from the perspective of Beiwacht and Point Barrow, but the G2 Roman Consul Stakes has provided the last two Coolmore winners. The 2025 edition at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday rated well against previous runnings; all 10 winners were in lanes one to eight, and nine of 10 settled in the top six, so you would want to be up there.
The Roman Consul was run almost a one length below standard with the eventual winner Hidden Motive (Capitalist) not asked for supreme effort until the last 400 metres.
I’m of the opinion that this didn’t suit Marhoona (Snitzel), but I’m sure plenty will disagree. She was beautifully weighted under this scale and had demonstrated the ability to run the fastest overall times; these types want genuine tempo from the race. Instead, she was held together and was simply outsprinted.
There's no doubt that Beadman (Snitzel) should have won, but he’s more explosive and better suited with this race shape. Napoleonic (Wootton Bassett {GB}) was solid at his first go in this grade. He beat a good horse at the midweeks at his run prior. That horse was Ohope (I Am Invincible), who took out the $500,000 Tapp-Craig, beating the heavily backed Farnicle (Farnan).
Don’t give up on Farnicle; he settled on pace and copped a tempo that was five lengths above standard. It might seem like an odd suggestion, but the G3 Carbine Club Stakes at Flemington on Derby day could work for him. The idle speed of a mile race might allow him to travel in his comfort zone, conserve energy, and find more inside the last 200 metres.
No doubt Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott will work out what’s best for him, but I’d stick solid with him. He’ll be winning races.
Farnicle | Image courtesy of Georgia Young Photography
Shangri La Boy steps up with Gloaming win
Speaking of Gai and Adrian, they have a nicely-bred middle distance galloper in the form of Shangri La Boy (Pierro). Graduating from a midweek 1400-metre victory, he ran them along in even fractions in the G3 Gloaming Stakes, running about one length below standard overall. That might sound only fair, but a theory I’ve long believed is that the hardest step for a young horse to take is going up in trip and up in class.
In his 1400-metre maiden win, he averaged 12.33s per 200-metre split through the first 800 metres. Last Saturday, he averaged 12.27s for the first 1200 metres. To do that and still win is the sign of a decent horse.
