Saturday preview: 'It should be odds-on, but I’d have a bit of $1.80 if it’s available'

12 min read
Whether it's Caulfield or Royal Randwick, there's Group 1 action to be enjoyed, with the world's best sprinter Ka Ying Rising's reputation on the line in the G1 The Everest and four international raiders taking on the G1 Caulfield Cup en route to Melbourne Cup day. Apocalyptic aims for four straight in the G1 Thousand Guineas, and Ceolwulf's connections will be doing a rain dance ahead of the G1 King Charles III Stakes.

Cover image courtesy of The Hong Kong Jockey Club

D-Day for Ka Ying Rising to climb the mountain

It wouldn’t be Everest day without one last check-in with David Hayes and the horse of the moment Ka Ying Rising (NZ) (Shamexpress {NZ}) - and there’s not a flicker of doubt in Hayes’ mind that his champion can prove himself on the Sydney stage.

Storms threaten the gelding’s favoured dry surface - perhaps one of the few things giving his rivals true hope - but Hayes believes that it will still be the rest of the field feeling the pressure most acutely, not Ka Ying Rising.

“The expectations are really high for him to perform and there’ll be a massive interest from home,’’ Hayes told Racing NSW on Friday. “He’s run at $1.10 or less five or six times and he’s done it every time. It’s just a different location and a different group of horses he’s racing.

Ka Ying Rising (NZ) | Image courtesy of The Hong Kong Jockey Club

“He absorbs pressure and he puts incredible pressure on other horses while he’s doing it. It’s like running with someone and they just go that tick too fast for you, and when it’s time to go home, you’re empty. He does that to a lot of very good horses.”

“It’s like running with someone and they just go that tick too fast for you, and when it’s time to go home, you’re empty. He (Ka Ying Rising) does that to a lot of very good horses.” - David Hayes

The Hong Kong champion’s public trial on the Randwick turf threw out a few questions, but keen observers noted that Zac Purton never asked the gelding to let down, and still the margin was a quarter of a length from first to third. Purton will no doubt take the handbrake off on Saturday.

“If the pace is too fast, he runs his best races sitting third or fourth, so he’s got a few strings to his bow,’’ Hayes said. “I think that’s why he’s rated the number one horse in the world. The tempo here is not as fast because of the longer run to the first bend. In Hong Kong, it’s helter-skelter to the first bend and there’s often horses with kamikaze tactics and going far too fast, but Zac seems to work it out and keep him out of trouble.”

David Hayes | Image courtesy of Georgia Young Photography

The gelding sits at $1.75 with punters on Friday afternoon, with Joliestar (Zoustar) rated as his biggest threat in the market currently. The last Everest winner to jump as the favourite was Think About It (So You Think {NZ}) in 2023, but he only shortened to $4.40, with $5 shot I Wish I Win (NZ) (Savabeel) finishing in second spot. Before him was Nature Strip (Nicconi), who was only favoured as short as $3.40.

“I can assure punters, it should be odds-on look on,” Hayes said. “But I’d have a bit of $1.80 if it’s available.”

Apocalyptic heads south to chase fourth straight win

Boom filly Apocalyptic (Extreme Choice) became her sire’s sixth Group 1 winner earlier this month, and will jump from barrier four in the G1 Thousand Guineas at Caulfield on Saturday in an attempt to double her top flight tally. The winner of three of her four starts, with all wins at Group level, the 3-year-old filly has already proven herself at the mile in the G1 Flight Stakes. Trainer Michael Freedman was happy with her work in the Melbourne direction when working at Caulfield on Tuesday.

What stands slightly against her is recent precedent; the last Guineas winner to arrive at the race a last start winner was Odeum (Written Tycoon) in 2020. Although Odeum was just as lightly raced, winning the Group 1 at her fourth start, she had the Listed Jim Moloney Stakes on the same track under her belt.

Apocalyptic | Image courtesy of Georgia Young Photography

Amphitrite (Sebring) won the G2 Edward Manifold Stakes as her Guineas lead-in, and the Manifold winner Getta Good Feeling (So You Think {NZ}) will be present on Saturday to tackle her, as will G2 Thousand Guineas Prelude winner Ferivia (Astern). Trainer Danny O’Brien rated the Extreme Choice filly as his G1 VRC Oaks hopeful’s biggest threat on Saturday.

“The Sydney filly is obviously very talented and is going to go around favourite for a reason,” O'Brien told racenet.com on Friday. “She looks a very impressive filly.”

“The Sydney filly (Apocalyptic) is obviously very talented and is going to go around favourite for a reason.” - Danny O'Brien

Danny O'Brien | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything

Guineas victress Global Glamour (Star Witness) was able to make the change in direction in 2017, winning the Flight Stakes a week before her trip south to secure her second top flight win. She was equally lightly raced, and went on to add two more Group 2 wins to her record before retirement. While she was a frontrunning winner in both races, Apocalyptic will be tapping into her electric turn of foot to beat the ‘Caulfield curse’ for Sydney raiders and take home the win.

The raiders are here: Who are our Caulfield Cup internationals?

It’s not a spring carnival without the international raiders, and four descend on Caulfield on Saturday for the G1 Caulfield Cup for our first full taste of multicultural action.

Absurde (Fr) (Fastnet Rock) - Willie Mullins brings his versatile former hurdler Absurde back for a third crack at the G1 Melbourne Cup, with a pit stop at Caulfield first. The 8-year-old gelding has finished seventh and fifth in his two attempts, the latter just a length and three quarters behind Knights Choice (Extreme Choice) last year.

We know the distance will never be a problem for this gelding, given he was back over the hurdles earlier this year, winning the Sussex Champion Hurdle over two miles in April.

Absurde (Fr) | Image courtesy of Racing Photos

Ben Allen picks up the ride, and is looking forward to the partnership, telling RSN on Tuesday, “He looks the ideal ride for this type of staying race, he will need a genuine tempo and, nine times out of 10, they are run at a pretty good gallop. It’s been a while since I’ve ridden in the Caulfield Cup, so I’m really looking forward to it.”

“He (Absurde) looks the ideal ride for this type of staying race." - Ben Allen

Meydaan (Ire) (Frankel {GB}) - The first trainers in the United Kingdom to become joint licence holders, father-son team Simon and Ed Crisford return down under with the lightly raced 5-year-old Meydaan. They initially brought Without A Fight (Ire) (Teofilo {Ire}) out to be unlucky in the Cup in 2022, then watched him win for Anthony and Sam Freedman the following year. The plucky Meydaan is lightly raced as the veteran of just 13 starts, but still strong in the market for the big one.

“He’s taken everything well, turned up here (Tuesday) morning and walked around the paddock like he’d been here 100 times,” the Crisfords' representative Paul Holley told news.com.au on Wednesday. “He took everything in his stride, handled the track, I couldn’t be more pleased.”

Presage Nocturne (Ire) (Wootton Bassett {GB}) - The late Wootton Bassett (GB) has had significant success with his imported offspring down under, and Presage Nocturne, trained by Frenchman Alessandro Botti hopes to add to that with both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. The grey entire was a winner over 3000 metres in April and subsequently twice-placed at the same distance or beyond up to Group 1 level. The Caulfield Cup is 100 metres shy of his shortest winning distance, but he has placed at both his 2400-metre outings to date.

Ilaria Botti, Alessandro’s wife, shared on Friday morning that the entire had taken a shine to fellow Caulfield Cup aspirant Golden Snap, one of three mares in the race; “He’s very French, also Italian, maybe more Italian. If there are fillies, sometimes, they can attract him.”

Presage Nocturne (Ire) | Image courtesy of Jockey Club Of Saudi Arabia

Golden Snap (Jpn) (Gold Ship {Jpn}) - Katsunori Tanaka has brought jockey Suguru Hamanaka down from Japan with him to continue his association with the fiery Golden Snap, a daughter of the roguish yet talented Gold Ship (Jpn), and drawing barrier 18 is not perceived as a problem by the jockey.

“We’re going to have a lot of discussions with the trainer about the barrier, of course,” Hamanaka told racenet.com on Thursday. “We’ll talk the race through. I’ve watched a lot of the Caulfield Cup videos. It looks to be a great race to ride in.”

Hamanaka has ridden the 6-year-old in 15 of her 16 starts, and to all four of her victories - the most recent of which was over 3000 metres in January.

Golden Snap (Jpn) | Image courtesy of Netkaiba

“I have to be really gentle with good hands during the run, but in the last part, I need to be really vigorous and be really strong for her (Golden Snap) to finish it off.” - Suguru Hamanaka

“I can be versatile with my riding but with this horse, I need to be both,” he said. “I have to be really gentle with good hands during the run, but in the last part, I need to be really vigorous and be really strong for her to finish it off. There’s two parts to it. She can maintain a long and strong gallop for a long time.”

Fangirl has the measure of Jenni in King Charles clash

Pride Of Jenni’s (Pride Of Dubai) wide-margin tactics don’t perturb Chris Waller this time ahead of Fangirl’s (Sebring) rematch with the mare in Saturday’s G1 King Charles III. Waller told RSN on Friday that the team, and Fangirl herself, had the measure of the other’s pattern now, and wouldn’t be letting her get away with one of her massive leads.

“It has brought her (Fangirl) undone in the past, but we know about Pride Of Jenni now," Waller said. “We know not to let her out of our sights. If you let Pride Of Jenni out of your sights, you won't get past her. Fangirl is a great mare and a mile is her right distance.”

Fangirl | Image courtesy of Sportpix

“We know not to let her out of our sights. If you let Pride Of Jenni out of your sights, you won't get past her.” - Chris Waller

A last start winner of the $1 million 7 Stakes over the mile, Fangirl ticked over in Ka Ying Rising’s trial in early October, given a soft hit-out in the back of the field.

“The win last start probably helps her confidence, and I'm not worried about the draw, there will be plenty of speed on,” Waller said.

The third edition of the King Charles under its current moniker will see a rematch of the quinellas from the first two editions - Fangirl, Mr Brightside (NZ) (Bullbars), Ceolwulf (NZ) (Tavistock {NZ}), and Pride of Jenni - and Joseph Pride is hoping that 2024’s winner Ceolwulf will bounce back to his best in the 2025 edition.

Ceolwulf (NZ) | Image courtesy of Georgia Young Photography

“He’s going to get a high-pressure race, which is to get really going to suit him,” he told The Age on Thursday. “He’s probably the main one I’ve got in mind when I’m saying I’d like a storm, because last year when he won, he won on a (soft) five and he’s crying out for a track with a little bit of give in it. Hopefully, he gets that.

“He’s (Ceolwulf) probably the main one I’ve got in mind when I’m saying I’d like a storm, because last year when he won, he won on a (soft) five.” - Joseph Pride

“He gets to the addition of blinkers for the first time in his life and I think they’re a really important gear change for him. He’s had the foundation to be fit enough to run out a really strong, high-pressure mile, and if there’s any give in that track, he’ll be in the finish.”

Ghaiyyath gets biggest chance to swing second season sires’ table

As the spring gets into full swing, we take a look at how the standings have shifted from first to second season sires. Bivouac currently leads the charge, courtesy of his son Beiwacht’s record-breaking G1 Golden Rose Stakes victory. With a newly minted Southern Hemisphere-bred Group winner, Wootton Bassett (GB) sits hot on his heels, and former Darley shuttler Ghaiyyath (Ire) sneaks into third spot as his 3-year-olds reach their preferred distances over a mile.

Ghaiyyath (Ire) | Standing at Darley Ireland

It’s Ghaiyyath who is the most represented in the stakes races this weekend, with four runners across three races on Saturday; Freedom Flame and Different Gravy will step out in the Listed Hill Smith Stakes at Morphetville, while over the border at Caulfield, Arabian Prince heads to the G3 Caulfield Classic and sprightly Listed Jim Moloney Stakes winner Yum lines up in the G3 Ethereal Stakes.

A four-time Group 1-winning son of Dubawi (Ire), Ghaiyyath was brought out to breed Derby horses for the Godolphin organisation, who didn’t “feel competitive” in Australia’s Derbies.

As Godolphin’s head Andy Makiv told racing.com earlier in the week, “we brought out the world’s best stayer and the world’s best horse at the time to try and breed Derby horses.”

Yum displayed explosive speed over the closing stages of the 1400-metre Jim Moloney, but the sharp rise to 2000 metres, after a midfield effort in the Edward Manifold, may let her sireline shine through. Likewise, the maiden Arabian Prince hasn’t been tried at anything shorter than 1800 metres, finishing third by a neck to Arcora (Justify {USA}) in the $150,000 Byerley Handicap as a juvenile.

Yum | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything

Goldrush Guru (American Pharoah {USA}) won the Hill Smith en route to his G1 Victoria Derby win last season, which bodes well if Ghaiyyath’s two hopefuls can measure up this year. After all, they are certainly bred for it.

Saturday preview
Apocalyptic
Caulfield Cup
Golden Snap
Absurde
Meydaan
Ka Ying Rising
Fangirl
Pride Of Jenni
Caulfield
Randwick
The Everest
Ceolwulf
Ghaiyyath