Cover image courtesy of Taylor Made Stallions
The impact of the OBBB depreciation rule looks set to flow from America’s yearling sales into the upcoming breeding stock auctions, where Australian buyers may again find themselves priced out by the boom. With the U.S. economy strong and the Australian dollar trading near multi-year lows, the cost of competing at the top end has rarely been higher.
Yet the sheer volume of mares and stallion prospects catalogued also creates openings for buyers willing to think differently - particularly those seeking outcross bloodlines to complement Australia’s Danehill-heavy population.
Not This Time picked to set a global benchmark
The frenzy begins with Keeneland’s Championship Sale on October 29, the eve of the Breeders’ Cup meeting.
Last year, the inaugural Championship Sale was topped by a US$2.5 million (AU$3.8 million) for a 2.5% share in Flightline (USA), and this year the sale includes nine lots. Shares in stallions Not This Time (USA), Life Is Good (USA), and Mindframe (USA) open the sale with breeding rights in Constitution (USA) and Nyquist (USA) also on offer.
The lone mare on offer is recently retired Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna (USA) (Fast Anna {USA}) (20% share being offered), joined by three stallion prospects to complete the catalogue.
“Not This Time kicks off proceedings with a one 50th share selling at the Keeneland Sale the night before the Breeders’ Cup, reminiscent of the Goffs London Sale.
“It’s intriguing and I’m tipping it could make up to $4 million which would value the horse at $200 million,” said bloodstock agent Will Johnson. Putting that into Australian dollars gives approximately AU$306 million.
“He’s arguably the second best stallion (in America) and the value will be there for all to see. To put it in perspective, Ole Kirk had a share sell for $600,000 which valued him at $60 million. That shows the size and scope of the American stallion market.
“I can’t wait to see the flow on effect of the 'Big Beautiful Bill 'in the broodmare market. Unfortunately for Australians, I think we’ll be in the nosebleed section of the grandstand watching centre court rocking and rolling. It’s going to be off its rocker.”
Will Johnson | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Size creates opportunity
The Fasig-Tipton November Sale on November 3, following the Breeders’ Cup meeting, consists of 244 hips to be sold on one day. The 2024 sale achieved a median price of US$250,000 (AU$381,000) with an average of US$541,000 (AU$825,000) and a gross over US$96 million (AU$146.5 million).
Keeneland will then host their massive November Breeding Stock Sale from November 4 to 11, with 3075 mares and foals listed to sell.
The Keeneland Breeding Stock Sale is one of the events of the year for global investors looking to bolster their broodmare bands, and the 2024 sale grossed over US$196 million (AU$299 million) with nine Hips making over seven figures.
Craig Rounsefell of Boomer Bloodstock feels the size of the two sales and the differences in the markets between Australia and America provide opportunities for value buying for Australian breeders.
Craig Rounsefell | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
“There’s opportunities in any market. You have to understand (when you are) going in with what you are dealing with. The economy in the US is very strong right now. Racing in certain jurisdictions, particularly Kentucky and New York, is extremely strong, and the new tax laws are advantageous for the bigger players in the industry,” said Rounsefell.
“All those things bode for a strong market, but with any market there are always opportunities. When you are buying broodmares in the US, you are not typically competing against the local market. You might be competing against the Europeans and the Japanese, but you are trying to buy something that’s going to suit Australia.
“The economy in the US is very strong right now... and the new tax laws are advantageous for the bigger players in the industry.” - Craig Rounsefell
“If you are going to operate at the top of the market, it’s going to be extremely tough, but if you do your homework and think outside the box, there are lots of opportunities because of the volume of horses they sell.”
The current best broodmare sires
Looking at the top 50 stallions on the USA 2025 Broodmare Sire table, fifteen stallions have achieved 10 or more individual stakes winners this season in this realm.
However, the problem with this table, for buyers seeking value, is the lag in time, with the youngest two sires of these fifteen being Tapit (USA) and Into Mischief (USA), both born in 2005.
The trouble for Australian buyers is that mares by the big-name broodmare sires don’t come cheap, and the ones that do are often older, making them a riskier import.
| Bernardini (USA) | 472 | 224 | 335 | $23,253,534 | Sovereignty - 5,692,020 | 24 | 37 |
| Tapit (USA) | 600 | 262 | 387 | $23,576,498 | Final Gambit - 927,964 | 23 | 28 |
| Street Sense (USA) | 260 | 147 | 240 | $12,607,289 | Good Cheer - 1,430,600 | 19 | 29 |
| Smart Strike (Can) | 399 | 195 | 287 | $15,542,710 | Ole Crazy Bone - 1,606,650 | 18 | 21 |
| Medaglia d'Oro (USA) | 486 | 236 | 339 | $17,737,229 | Stellify - 1,442,604 | 17 | 22 |
| More Than Ready (USA) | 378 | 182 | 278 | $12,242,993 | She Feels Pretty - 1,082,275 | 14 | 19 |
| Lemon Drop Kid (USA) | 331 | 145 | 227 | $10,583,690 | Spirit of St Louis - 1,077,100 | 14 | 16 |
| Into Mischief (USA) | 331 | 153 | 248 | $16,224,424 | White Abarrio - 1,910,070 | 12 | 19 |
| Scat Daddy (USA) | 311 | 153 | 240 | $13,914,685 | Burnham Square - 1,695,325 | 12 | 15 |
| Malibu Moon (USA) | 542 | 273 | 446 | $19,270,256 | Sierra Leone - 998,200 | 11 | 14 |
| Distorted Humor (USA) | 422 | 225 | 352 | $16,218,884 | Sandman - 1,390,000 | 11 | 16 |
| Speightstown (USA) | 407 | 183 | 312 | $14,561,436 | Deterministic - 1,102,125 | 11 | 15 |
| Giant's Causeway (USA) | 493 | 221 | 338 | $14,716,051 | Fionn - 1,776,470 | 10 | 16 |
| Street Cry (Ire) | 248 | 113 | 181 | $8,947,891 | Golden Afternoon - 485,720 | 10 | 12 |
| Flatter (USA) | 220 | 110 | 184 | $8,164,214 | Plensa - 1,223,819 | 10 | 10 |
Table: Top broodmare sires in America in 2025 by individual stakes winners
Sires on the rise in America
For buyers hunting for value, there is some to be found by looking for stallions on the rise. Using the assumption that good sires make good broodmare sires, which American-based stallions are emerging in 2025?
Into Mischief shows this assumption perfectly as he’s currently leading the General Sire table with progeny earnings over US$24 million (AU$36.7 million) in 2025, and is fifth on the Broodmare Sire table with his daughters' progeny earnings hitting over US$16 million (AU$24.5 million) in 2025.
Four stallions whose oldest foals are 3-year-olds have cracked the top 50 on the general sires table, being Vekoma (USA) whose 11 stakes winners this year have won 18 stakes races and the son of Candy Ride (Arg) is currently 13th on the general table.
He was last year’s Champion First Season Sire and already has 16 career stakes winners, although he’s yet to crack the Grade 1 status with his best being four Grade 2 winners.
Vekoma (USA) | Standing at Spendthrift Farm, USA
Vekoma was a Grade 3 winner at two, a Grade 2 winner at three, and trained on to win two Grade 1 races at four. He won the G1 Carter Handicap over 1400 metres and the G1 Belmont Metropolitan Handicap over a mile. All up he won six of his eight starts.
“Vekoma is the buzzword at the moment. Obviously, Gun Runner needs little introduction as the king of America at this point in time, and it was good to see a couple of yearlings by him this year (in Australia), and hopefully a couple more in years to come,” said Johnson.
Vekoma's sire Candy Ride is also the sire of Gun Runner (USA), who currently sits in third on the General Sires table, and has nine Grade 1 winners. Candy Ride himself currently sits in position 41 of the top 50 sires by earnings in the USA this year.
Gun Runner (USA) | Standing at Three Chimneys Farm, USA
The beauty of Candy Ride, Gun Runner, and Vekoma is that they are all outcrosses to Danehill (USA), whose influence dominates the Australian population.
The other three young stallions with first crop 3-year-olds on the top 50 USA general sires table are McKinzie (USA), Tiz the Law (USA), and Authentic (USA).
“Of those (four), the ones that will suit Australia are Vekoma and Tiz The Law. They are showing promise with their turf runners. Another horse looking exciting is Oscar Performance. He’s had a really good dirt horse this year, and he looks like they’ll do both (dirt and turf), and he’s a young horse on the rise who’ll suit Australia,” said Rounsefell.
“That whole Candy Ride line - Vekoma, Twirling Candy, Gun Runner - it carries different genetics that offers some nice outcrossing for Australia.”
| 13 | Vekoma (USA) | Candy Ride | 144 | 88 | 143 | 11(18) | $9,329,874.00 | Bracket Buster - 709,445 | 2021 |
| 31 | McKinzie (USA) | Street Sense | 138 | 52 | 62 | 7(7) | $6,221,656.00 | Baeza - 1,503,000 | 2021 |
| 44 | Tiz the Law (USA) | Constitution | 117 | 50 | 67 | 5(5) | $5,367,461.00 | Tiztastic - 803,125 | 2021 |
| 48 | Authentic (USA) | Into Mischief | 156 | 57 | 77 | 6(7) | $5,036,969.00 | Rodriguez - 612,000 | 2021 |
| 9 | Omaha Beach (USA) | War Front | 221 | 110 | 177 | 15(21) | $10,624,811.00 | Kopion - 830,100 | 2020 |
| 24 | Mitole (USA) | Eskendereya | 202 | 100 | 160 | 7(12) | $7,368,141.00 | Shisospicy - 1,524,645 | 2020 |
| 35 | Maximus Mischief (USA) | Into Mischief | 177 | 92 | 150 | 9(11) | $5,942,719.00 | Raging Torrent - 550,000 | 2020 |
| 37 | Vino Rosso (USA) | Curlin | 203 | 100 | 149 | 3(4) | $5,820,597.00 | Bottle of Rouge - 240,000 | 2020 |
| 42 | Audible (USA) | Into Mischief | 167 | 84 | 141 | 3(3) | $5,559,093.00 | Passage East - 257,293 | 2020 |
| 15 | Mendelssohn (USA) | Scat Daddy | 284 | 137 | 221 | 7(7) | $8,888,646.00 | Saturday Flirt - 296,140 | 2019 |
| 18 | Bolt d'Oro (USA) | Medaglia d'Oro | 227 | 109 | 180 | 9(11) | $8,402,416.00 | Look Forward - 563,275 | 2019 |
| 19 | Justify (USA) | Scat Daddy | 158 | 61 | 89 | 9(11) | $8,161,181.00 | Stellify - 1,442,604 | 2019 |
| 23 | City of Light (USA) | Quality Road | 171 | 85 | 124 | 5(9) | $7,372,187.00 | Fierceness - 1,298,970 | 2019 |
| 33 | Mo Town (USA) | Uncle Mo | 187 | 86 | 139 | 8(12) | $6,041,248.00 | Mystic Lake - 546,288 | 2019 |
| 39 | Collected (USA) | City Zip | 158 | 83 | 136 | 5(7) | $5,725,609.00 | Mansetti - 669,481 | 2019 |
| 40 | Oscar Performance (USA) | Kitten's Joy | 123 | 58 | 76 | 7(10) | $5,682,324.00 | World Beater - 1,123,890 | 2019 |
Table: Stallions with the fewest crops on the 2025 American General Sires table
“A horse from left field, who has had a couple of impressive dirt winners in Japan, is Maxfield. It’ll be interesting to see if the Japanese come to buy those. And Good Magic for Hill ‘n’ Dale and the Sikura family. His best crops are only foals, and he should keep improving now he’s getting better mares having had several Classic winners already. I can’t wait to see them.”
Maxfield (USA), a son of Street Sense (USA), stands at Darley USA where his oldest crop are 2-year-olds in 2025, and he has one Listed winner in America this year.
Maxfield (USA) | Standing at Darley, USA
Good Magic (USA) is a son of Curlin (USA) who has sired Classic-winning full brothers Mage (USA) and Dornoch (USA) as well G1 Arkansas Derby winner Muth (USA), and two other Grade 1 winners among his 21 stakes winners.
Understanding the marketplace
Finding value and opportunity is not necessarily about following a particular sire or sire line. It’s about knowing what you want to achieve.
“You can find value because you are looking for something that a lot of people at that sale are not looking for. If you do your homework, there are so many opportunities, it’s just about perseverance. The top end will be very hard, you’ll need a big budget if you are buying there, but underneath that, you don’t have to buy those horses. A lot of their top mares might not suit Australia,” said Rounsefell.
“If you do your homework, there are so many opportunities, it’s just about perseverance.” - Craig Rounsefell
Johnson agrees. “We end up buying European horses that Americans don’t want, that should probably end up back in Europe. They’ll win a maiden in England, Ireland or France, then get sold to America and win a stakes race or two, then Australians are likely to buy a horse with that profile,” said Johnson.
“It’s been great to see Mr Zhang buy some top profile mares like he has in the last couple of years. It’s been good to see some top line American mares, like Moira, come here to Australia, and I can’t wait to see their progeny in years to come.”
“It’s been good to see some top line American mares come here to Australia and I can’t wait to see their progeny in years to come, like Moira.” - Will Johnson
Moira (Can) (Ghostzapper {USA}) was a US$4.3 million (AU$6.5 million) purchase at the 2024 Fasig-Tipton November Sale. She won the G1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf being being transferred to Chris Waller where she had five starts for a second and two Group fourths. She's recently been retired to Yulong.
Knowledge reduces the intimidation of the market
With North American racing being the largest jurisdiction in the world, there is a huge range of racing there.
“It’s always important when buying in America to have some knowledge of US racing. It’s an advantage for me, having worked hands-on there, which has given me knowledge of different jurisdictions, rating systems, and class.
“And then the different trainers, gives you an edge in uncovering horses that had more ability than might show with black type,” said Rounsefell.
“It’s always important when buying in America to have some knowledge of US racing.” - Craig Rounsefell
“Winning a Saturday race in Sydney compared to a black type race in Tasmania is the same type of understanding. There’s a lot more variants than buying here, having dirt and turf, different race tracks, and so on. They have a lot more tools (to line up performance) to use to measure across different jurisdictions.
“It can be an intimidating market to step into, but when you get a deep understanding of it, there’s great opportunity for Australia in terms of the speed the horses have and the soundness they have to have. All those elements really complement Australia and you can see why American mares outperform here, pound for pound, they are the benchmark.
“The USA horses generally have more scope than our stallions who tend to need that. We’ve got more bone here, there’s a nice mix and they complement each other. There are different conformations that you have to be careful of, sothat you don’t want them throwing for yearling sales here.
“That’s no different to if you are buying a broodmare in Australia, you are applying the same attributes.”
