Where’s the value? Taking a late season punt on a second season sire

Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything

In a commercial market that makes judgements quickly, there can be opportunities for breeders who do their homework and take risks on horses who are on an upward trajectory, and the current second season sires are worthy of investigation.

To put this in context, Not A Single Doubt didn’t get his first stakes winner until the very end of his second season and went on to be a breed shaper thanks to his son Extreme Choice as well as second season sire Farnan. Not A Single Doubt provided excellent opportunities to those who were willing to take a risk on him at the time.

One of the key variables at this time of year is stallion fertility, so who is stepping up in performance on the track and in the shed?

The state of the game at this stage

Last season, there were 122 individual stakes winning 3-year-olds across the whole season. To date this season, there have been 42 stakes winning 3-year-olds, which is about one third of the full expected number that we’ll reach by the end of the season.

While it’s early days for this crop, there’s still enough information for a savvy breeder to take a late season punt on a horse who looks like they’ll keep improving.

In the 2025/26 season, there are, to date, 32 second season sires who have had runners in Australia. Of those, 31 have sired a winner in their whole career, nine have sired a stakes winner, and three have a Group 1 winner.

Table: Active second season sires with stakes winners

Fertility could be the determining variable now. For late covers, top fertility figures translate to a higher chance of a one-cycle positive and a late foal.

Among the leading active second-season sires with runners, six ran at ≥80% fertility last year; Tagaloa 89%, Hanseatic 85%, Farnan 81%, King’s Legacy 81% and Bivouac 80%.

Ole Kirk is the headline act

Last season’s Champion First Season Sire, Ole Kirk’s fee jumped from $55,000 including GST to $99,000 for this season, and he continues to impress with five stakes winners. He gained his first Group 1 winner when Ole Dancer won the G1 Thousand Guineas recently.

He's a safe bet for breeders, having already sired the goods. And as a racehorse who improved from two to three, the general opinion is that his progeny will do the same. Ole Kirk also has the most individual winners of any of his peers with 22, and ten of those have won already this season.

“The overarching sentiment is that he’s still on an upwards trajectory and we don’t know what his ceiling is. He went up from $55,000 to $99,000 this season, but all his bookings were complete before he had a Group 1 winner,” said Vinery’s Harry Roach.

“It’s fair to say that he’s still on the up and when you compare his first season where he had 13 winners and four stakes winners, with this season, where he’s already had ten winners, two stakes winners and a metro winning 2-year-old. It’s only the end of October.

“Everyone was of the view that they’d be better at three and that’s borne out with a runner in the Coolmore on Saturday and three in the Carbine Club where Regal Award is a live chance.”

Ole Kirk’s Legacy Bound runs in Saturday’s G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes. In the G3 Carbine Club Stakes at Flemington on Saturday, Ole Kirk is represented by Regal Award, Prestige Ole, and Triple Malt.

Ole Kirk has 382 live foals including 89 yearlings and has been well supported every year since 2021 when he retired.

Tagaloa on the rise

The clear value sire who may prove the smartest punt for breeders, is the Yulong young gun - standing for only $22,000 inc GST.

Tagaloa won the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes, training on to add a Group 3 at three and place in the G1 Australian Guineas. His precocity created an expectation that his stock would also be early, but that hasn't necessarily been the case so far.

He sired seven winners with his first crop last season, and that’s grown to 15 now they are three. His first stakes winner, Spicy Lu, won the Listed Fernhill Stakes in the autumn, and again she’s improved at three, winning the G3 Ethereal Stakes.

Tagaloa added his second group winner when Salty Pearl won the G2 Moonee Valley Fillies Classic recently, continuing his upward pathway.

“He’s one of those stallions who is under the radar. There are others with plenty of hype around them, and then you get a horse like him who has had a tradesman like performance so far. He’s been getting the winners and now the stakes performers are coming,” said Yulong’s Sam Fairgray.

Tagaloa has a pedigree that belies his race record with his sire Lord Kanaloa (Jpn) improving with age and being known for siring horses who thrived at three and beyond such as Almond Eye (Jpn), Panthalassa (Jpn), and G1 Hong Kong Sprint winner Danon Smash (Jpn). If Tagaloa follows the same pathway as his sire, then continual improvement should be expected.

“He’s going very well with his recent fillies, and I think expectations were around his Blue Diamond win and getting early 2-year-olds, but we are seeing his progeny improving with age. We’ve never lost faith in him because his progeny are always strong through the line, and we think that’ll stand them in good stead.

“He’s had nice support from us, and it’s also great to see that his two stakes winners have been bred by clients of ours," added Fairgray.

“The good thing is that he’s a work in progress with good numbers to come. Not many stallions are doing what he’s achieved to date. With the numbers he’s got coming through, he’s a good chance to keep improving his progeny’s performances."

"We’ve also had some nice success in the sale ring too, as he’s leaving nice types.”

Tagaloa has 405 live foals including 91 yearlings and stands at a fee of $22,000 including GST in 2025.

Cool Aza Beel rolling along

Cool Aza Beel (NZ) was first off the mark with a Group 1 winner when Cool Archie won the G1 JJ Atkins Plate at two last season.

He’s the cheapest of the three sires who have a Group 1 winner, standing at Newhaven Park Stud for $16,500.

“We couldn’t be more pleased. He’s had Cool Archie who won five straight including the JJ Atkins. We were pleased to see Cool Aza Rene last week, the filly in New Zealand, has come back (at three). She’s won five from eight and she won the lead up to the New Zealand 1000 Guineas recently. It’s pretty exciting,” said John Kelly at Newhaven Park Stud.

Cool Aza Rene won the G3 Barneswood Farm Stakes in early October and will be aimed at the G1 NZ 1000 Guineas in early November.

“We kept him at the same fee and he’s got a full book of 140 mares, with the view to building support for him and that the breeders could do well off that fee.”

Farnan and Bivouac heavily supported

Bivouac became the second stallion in this cohort to add a Group 1 winner when Beiwacht won the G1 Golden Rose.

Both Farnan and Bivouac have been well supported at top of the market fees throughout their career, and both have three stakes winners each. Farnan is ahead on the number of winners with 21 against Bivouac’s 13.

Farnan, who stands at Kia Ora for $77,000 including GST, has 431 foals including 96 yearlings. Bivouac has 327 foals including 74 yearlings and stands at Darley for $55,000 including GST.

A stakes winner nice and early on the board

Four stallions have one stakes winner each, and all of them are at great value fees for breeders still looking for options at this point in the season. King’s Legacy leads these four with 16 individual winners, while Lucky Vega (Ire) has 11 Southern Hemisphere winners. Dirty Work has eight winners and Peltzer has four.

Sire of G2 Sweet Embrace Stakes winner Within The Law, Lucky Vega is the most expensive of these four, at $38,500 in 2025, and he’s the only shuttle stallion who is still active in this cohort. He is slightly unique as a shuttle stallion with his first covering season in Australia, before heading back to the Northern Hemisphere, so his oldest there are only juveniles. He’s had two stakes winners up there this season being Listed winners Only Luck (Ire) and Lam Yai (Ire).

King’s Legacy sired G3 David Coles Stakes winner Steel Trap last season, and he stands at Coolmore in 2025 for $16,500. Steel Trap most recently ran mid-field in the G1 Thousand Guineas, while Kujenga was stakes placed over the weekend.

Widden Victoria’s Dirty Work, who stands in 2025 at $13,200, has slipped under the radar a little with his first stakes winner, Do I Feel Lucky coming in the R.Listed Magic Millions Perth 2YO Classic. With 303 live foals and 74 yearlings, he has plenty of numbers coming through for him in the next couple of years.

“It’s interesting, Doubtland probably has more commercial appeal than Dirty Work at this point, even though it’s Dirty Work with the stakes winner. He’s a son of Written Tycoon and Ole Kirk has helped push things along in that direction too,” said Widden’s Matt Comerford.

“He’s got Voodoo Lass, who has won three on the trot in Queensland and recent winner Pony Up in the west too. From not a lot of runners, he’s getting a good number of winners and they are competitive too.

“He leaves good stock, and he’s a good outcross. His two best performers are out of Danehill line mares, which is beneficial (for mare owners).”

Rounding out those with a stakes winner is Peltzer, who stands at Twin Hills Stud for $11,000 in 2025, and sired Listed winner Buccleuch last season. As a son of So You Think (NZ), his stock are likely to improve with time. He has less numbers on the ground compared with many in this cohort, with 194 foals, including 44 yearlings to come.

A few notable mentions are Anders, Hanseatic, and Doubtland who all have double figure winners and stakes performers.