'It’s always the same people bidding against you': Is the yearling market narrowing?

Cover image courtesy of Magic Millions

In the last few years, there has been much discussion about the increasing homogeneity of the yearling market. The feedback is consistent: everyone is chasing the same few horses with less variety.

“Buyers only want a certain type of horse,” is the catch cry.

For years, hot sires have come and gone. Trainers have had their bargain favourites. But the recent shift is different: popularity now requires three boxes ticked every time - clean X-rays, a commercial sire with pedigree depth, and, above all, the right look.

This “look” is the new battleground. A similar physical type appears again and again in buyers’ shortlists - a convergence on the same shape, same movement, same intangible presence. And the same people chasing them. It’s not just the vendors who have noticed this more towards more of the same.

Part of this homogenisation may be cultural: many leading buyers learned from the same person.

Legendary yearling judge George Smith, who died in October, shaped an entire generation of agents, trainers and buyers. Bloodstock agent Suman Hedge notes that his influence is everywhere in today’s marketplace.

“So many people either learned directly from him or from understudies of him. Those guys all butt heads on the same horses,” said Hedge.

Streamlining tastes

“(At the sales), it’s always the same people who will be bidding against you. I run into the same people all the time, and it’s in different areas,” said Hedge.

“If you are buying broodmares, there’ll be the same people bidding against you. Weanlings, I always run into Bevan Smith, we joke about it, we should just stand next to each other and say how much have you got. Or we should buy them together.

“Yearlings, it’s different again. There are certain people who were probably trained by the same people who end up bidding against each other and look for the same attributes.”

So how much impact does mentorship have on the way people look at horses?

The mentorship of George Smith

Legendary yearling judge, late George Smith, mentored many of the current agents, trainers, and buyers in the yearling market, and Hedge pointed out his impact on the way the yearling market operates now.

“That was the thing when George Smith died. He really was amazing and so many people either learned directly from him or from understudies of him. There’s a whole group of fairly big buyers that you can trace back to him, and they are very successful. The things that were important to him are really vital attributes,” Hedge said.

“I never met him, but I was taught by John O’Shea who worked for Gai (Waterhouse) and worked alongside George for a while. There are so many people, James Harron, Henry Field, to name a couple.”

George Smith worked as the yearling advisor to Gai Waterhouse for over a decade, and in that time many of the current top industry buyers were mentored through that stable.

In the obituary that TTR wrote for George Smith, James Harron spoke about his mentorship.

“I learned so much from George on how to assess a yearling and how to categorise a yearling and understand how to write notes, and how to grade it. His systems and his eyes and his experience to get his results on the track were just second to none. He was a great teacher and happy to teach,” said Harron.

Inglis auctioneer Simon Vivian concurred. “I still use a similar format and similar series of words (for yearling notes) that I learned when working with George. I could look at James Harron’s notes and see George Smith’s notes in them. It wouldn’t be just him, so many people would have that,” said Vivian.

Having a similar eye for a horse

Paul Moroney works alongside Catheryne Bruggemann and the pair purchased both Romanoff (NZ) (Belardo {Ire}) and Affirmative Action (Yes Yes Yes) who ran first and second in the G1 New Zealand 2000 Guineas earlier this month. The interesting thing about their working relationship is how similar they are in the way they appraise a horse.

“We just had the quinella in the Guineas in NZ and I went back to my notes to see how it fell and Catheryne found the winner on her first look, and I found the runner up on my first look, then we kept them on for each other’s second looks and agreed to keep them on for our third and fourth looks,” Moroney said.

“We put them up as two of the best horses in the catalogue, and fortunately we could buy them at good money. We know our system works and because there are two of us, we can look at every horse, and we won’t miss any horse.

“If it was like it was 12 years ago before Catheryne came on board and I had to do the whole lot myself, I’d be pulling my hair out, but fortunately common sense prevailed and I found someone who I trust their judgement and we share a very similar eye for horses, therefore it takes pressure off me with the size of the catalogues today.”

Romanoff was purchased from Haunui Farm for NZ$75,000, while Affirmative Action was a NZ$115,000 purchase from Wentwood Grange.

Hedge has a strong respect for the way Moroney appraises horses, and has taken some of his observations on board for his own work.

“Paul Moroney takes a lot of time with each horse. He’s very studious and patient and you try to learn from people who are the best at what they do. I’m more patient than I used to be. You make too many mistakes when you rush, we aren’t buying enough horses, we need to get it right,” said Hedge.

“Everything I learned was from others, and how you make it your own is that you take bits and pieces from others. I learned from Robert Smerdon when I was there, watching what was important to him. I’ve worked for Byron (Rogers), and (James) Bester, and Les Samba of all people. I spent a day with him in Adelaide and he taught me heaps, just asking him lots of questions.

“He bought some really good horses, Shogun Lodge, Thorn Park, and his strike rate was unbelievable.”

Some of the decision making around buying is coming back to what has already worked for you. “I think what it is, it’s like you drill where there’s oil. When you’ve had success buying a particular type of horse, you tend to gravitate towards that type as you are trying to get it right again. That can be very effective,” said Hedge.

Moroney didn’t feel that was the case at all.

“Honestly, they never start looking the same, they all have different gaits, and different shapes and different characteristics about their heads and their balance, and the length of their back and length of their hindquarter and forearm, and it’s a lot of concentration to notice that stuff, but you’ve got to,” Moroney said.

Benefits of inspecting every horse

Many agents will look at every horse in a catalogue, preferring to judge them on type, and not on paper. Hedge and Moroney are well known for inspecting every horse in a catalogue.

“I want to see a horse in totality, the way it moves and turns, is it agile? Some horses are awkward on the turn and some are agile. Most horses have very similar ability but the ones with more efficiency in their action have an advantage. That’s ultimately the difference most of the time,” said Hedge.

“If a horse is walking towards you and its legs are on sideways, or if it’s tiny, or if it’s a complete dromedary and there’s just no way I’m going to buy this horse. Some of those horses can run, they make you look like idiots later on.

“But I’m buying for certain clients and they have certain criteria that they want, and I have to fit within that.”

And this is where it comes back to homogeneity in the market – clients want a particular type of horse.

They want one who can compete at the top level, while having enough of a pedigree to be marketable as a stallion or a commercial broodmare, and importantly, to be the physical type who will produce the next generation of horses that also look good in the yearling ring. It’s a continual cycle that narrows the type of horse that people want to buy.

Will Johnson is a fan of referring back and studying his work to learn and improve from it. He believes there is a long term benefit to having notes on every horse in your system.

“Gathering notes on every horse then works a couple of years later when you are seeing a filly or mare online and you can circle back to your notes on her as a yearling. It makes for easier decisions, without having to travel to see her again,” said Johnson.

The first season sires garner excitement

In 2025, first season sire Home Affairs broke new ground with the sale topping yearling at both the Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale and at the Inglis Easter Yearling Sale. At the Gold Coast, the Home Affairs filly from Champion 3-year-old filly Sunlight (Zoustar) sold to Mitsu Nakauchida for $3.2 million. She has been named Lia La La.

At Easter, it was the Home Affairs colt from Shout The Bar (Not A Single Doubt) who topped the sale at $3 million to the bid of Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott and Kestrel Thoroughbreds. He is yet to be named. Will we see the same fireworks in 2026?

In 2026, the first season sires are Anamoe, Artorius, Aysar, Best of Bordeaux, Bruckner, Dalasan, Daumier, Diatonic (Jpn), Ellsberg, Hitotsu, In The Congo, Jacquinot, Lightsaber, Marine One, Paulele, Profondo, Sejardan, State Of Rest (Ire), Stronger and Top Ranked (Ire).

Johnson is excited to check out the first yearlings by Anamoe.

“Looking forward to seeing Anamoe. It’s been a while since we’ve had a top class 2-year-old who trained on at three and four, and actually have horses for sale at the yearling sales, so I’m very much looking forward to seeing them. And hopefully they can run on the track," said Johnson.

“The main difference (to Home Affairs last year) is supply and demand. There are far less Anamoes than there were Home Affairs."

It’s a sentiment shared by Hedge, whose curiosity for the new season stallions is a key factor in why breeders flock to those stallions in their first year.

“I’m excited about the new stallions, seeing their progeny and what they look like. You’re always curious about how they are going to present,” Hedge said.

For vendors, this move towards homogeneity of type makes life more challenging in determining which horses to present at the sales, and the sale companies are likely shifting towards what the market wants too. But for the savvy buyers, as in the past, there are huge opporunities in taking risks on horses that don't fit the current standard.

As we all know, horses of all shapes and sizes win races. If it was simple, only the very rich would buy Group 1 winners.