When Karaka shrank, the market sharpened: a deeper look at the metrics

Cover image courtesy of New Zealand Bloodstock

Data from New Zealand Bloodstock website as at 28 January 2026

Karaka’s shift in 2026 wasn’t subtle: the catalogue was cut by 240 yearlings, the sale was compressed from five days to three, and the market responded exactly the way markets do when supply tightens. Book 1’s median lifted to NZ$140,000 (up from NZ$110,000) - but the real story was Book 2, where the median surged to NZ$60,000 from NZ$26,750.

Tightening comes with a trade-off; with fewer horses offered, headline gross growth is always going to be capped, and total turnover now reflects volume discipline rather than demand fatigue. So it was particularly notable that gross increased across both books.

A smaller sale, a tougher fight

Across both books, 848 yearlings were catalogued in 2026 compared to 1008 in 2025. After four straight years sitting around the 1100 mark, the shape of the sale materially changed. Fewer lots meant more competition per horse, and a clearer lift in the floor, reflected in the averages, medians, and clearance rates.

The biggest change came in book 2, moving from 448 lots in 2025 to 281 in 2026, a removal of 146 horses from that sector of the market and a reduction from two days to one. Book 1 tightened by 94 horses from 661 catalogued in 2025 over three days to 567 catalogued in 2026 over two days of selling.

Table: Book 1 of Overall 5-year metrics NZB National Yearling Sale

Table: Book 2 of Overall 5-year metrics NZB National Yearling Sale

Where the lift really occurred

Breaking Book 1 into quartiles shows where the tightening actually did its work. Rather than the gains being isolated to the very top of the market, every price band moved higher in 2026 - a sign that improved quality wasn’t confined to elite lots, but spread through the catalogue.

Looking back across the past five years helps put that shift into context. While 2023 delivered a relatively strong median, it did so with a softer top quartile and a heavier reliance on the middle of the market. In contrast, 2026 shows broader strength, with each quartile lifting year-on-year, despite fewer horses changing hands.

In 2026, every quartile average lifted by at least 12% on 2025. Rather than inflation driven by a handful of top-end outliers, the data points to a deeper, more competitive market across the whole of Book 1.

Table: NZB National Yearling Sale Book 1 Quartile analysis

Measured by median, 2026 stands as the strongest Book 1 result of the past five years, with NZ$140,000 marking a clear step up from the NZ$110,000 recorded in 2025.

Importantly, that lift came without an expansion in catalogue size - reinforcing that the market moved because buyers were prepared to pay more per horse, not because more horses were offered.

The most pronounced gains came at the lower end. The bottom 25% of Book 1 horses averaged NZ$64,500, up from the previous peak of NZ$59,333 in 2024. Over the past four years, the cheapest quartile has lifted 31%, outpacing gains in the top end and confirming that the tighter catalogue materially reset the market floor.

By reducing numbers at Karaka and diverting marginal stock into the Summer Sale and National Online Sale, New Zealand Bloodstock has effectively protected the integrity of Book 1. The result was greater consistency through the lower and middle bands, and a Book 2 market that responded even more sharply.

Australian money set the tone

New Zealand Bloodstock tracks buyer origin in two ways. Publicly reported results record the location of the purchasing entity, while internal data captures the end-user - the party funding the purchase. In most cases the two align, but where agents are involved, the internal data provides a clearer picture of where the capital is actually coming from.

New Zealand Bloodstock provided this internal buyer-location data to The Thoroughbred Report. Using that internal measure, Australian buyers accounted for 48% of total gross sales across both books in 2026, up from 43% in 2025.

Table: NZB internal data by % of gross spend

A broader buying bench

In 2026, 218 individual buying groups competed for 422 Book 1 yearlings, purchasing an average of 1.94 horses per buyer. That compares with 217 buying groups in 2025, who purchased an average of 2.11 horses from 457 horses sold.

David Ellis has been the leading buyer at Karaka for more than two decades and his influence on the sale remains significant. Over the past five years, however, his purchasing profile has evolved alongside the expansion of Te Akau’s Australian operations. In 2026, Ellis purchased 17 Book 1 yearlings for NZ$4.26 million, down from 31 yearlings and NZ$8.07 million in 2022.

In practical terms, a similar number of buyers were ending up with fewer horses, increasing competitive pressure and reducing the ability of any one buyer to dominate the catalogue.

Table: Buyer behavoiur at NZB

Contracted catalogue but similar vendor figures

Despite the reduction in sale size, the number of vendors represented in Book 1 has stayed fairly static across the past five years. In 2026, the 567 yearlings catalogued were spread across 42 vendors, who presented an average of 13.5 yearlings each. The peak number of vendors was in 2023 when 48 different vendors showcased horses in book 1.

Cambridge Stud was the leading vendors by lots sold in 2026, beating Waikato Stud into second from the top slot they’d held the previous four years.

Cambridge Stud sold 50 yearlings in 2026.

Table: Vendor data over the last five years

Stallion mix in Book 1

Across the past five years, the percentage of yearlings by New Zealand based stallions has stayed static at 72% of the catalogue, with Australian-based stallions making up the remainder of the yearlings presented.

Table: Sire location in NZB Book 1