'He’s going to have to run very well': It’s wide open in the latest Slipper picture shake-up

Cover image courtesy of Sportpix

With less than four weeks to the G1 Golden Slipper Stakes, the race for the final field grows ever tighter, with the chances of ballot-free entry and qualifying prizemoney starting to dwindle. But just what does the picture of that field look like?

An outside victor in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes and a number of high profile pre-race scratchings in recent events diverting the preparations of several hopefuls, it is hard to get a handle on exactly where our Slipper winner could come from.

Such is the nature of 2-year-old training; things change drastically day to day and race to race. At this time last year, Marhoona (Snitzel) had flown under the radar for many Slipper predictors with her debut win at Canterbury, while provincial upstart Shaggy (Sandbar) had won three straight and loomed as a real threat for the G2 Skyline Stakes, where he ultimately finished fifth and opted to miss the Slipper.

What can we learn from the recent history of Slipper winners, and from what race will this year’s champion emerge? With the G2 Sweet Embrace Stakes and G2 Skyline Stakes headlining this weekend, it’s still all to play for.

The Victorians are flying

The anticipated reshuffle to the Golden Slipper order did arrive last weekend - just perhaps not in the way many had expected. Last Saturday saw the running of Victoria’s premier juvenile feature, the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes, and already three of the first six home have confirmed plans to head north for the world’s richest 2-year-old race.

Blue Diamond victress Streisand (Magnus), currently second in the Golden Slipper order of entry, will press on toward the grand final at Rosehill.

The filly jumped in double figures with the punters despite a slashing G2 Blue Diamond Prelude (fillies) and the steerage of Slipper-winning trainer Clinton McDonald, who gave Blue Diamond victress Hayasugi (Royal Meeting {Ire}) the same number of starts into her Group 1 triumph.

Runner-up Closer To Free (Street Boss {USA}) is not currently nominated, but trainer Danny O’Brien has announced he will pay the $150,000 late nomination fee to get the colt, who won the colts and geldings’ leg of the Prelude, into the final field. In an intriguing note from history, since 1990, all six of the Slipper winners who ran a Blue Diamond Prelude before their Slipper tilt won their respective Preludes, most recently being Sepoy - also the only horse in history to win both the Diamond and the Slipper.

There was a flying line of form through the race in the nineties, with Flying Spur, Danzero, and Merlene (Danehill {USA}) giving their sire Danehill (USA) three consecutive Slippers via the Preludes.

Zambales (Pinatubo {Ire}), who sits 12th in the order with over $150,000 in prizemoney and produced a slashing fourth in the Blue Diamond, is also Sydney-bound. The Godolphin colt may have another run as a lead-up, though - with that prizemoney in the bank and the likelihood that not everyone above him will run - there’s also the option of going straight into the feature.

Don’t write off the locals

Guest House (Home Affairs) and Eternal Warrior (Extreme Warrior), third and sixth in the Diamond, are also slated to line up in the Group 1 on March 21. Lloyd Kennewell, trainer of the latter, commented that it was “a touch of a bittersweet result” given the Listed Merson Cooper Stakes-winning colt was lumped with barrier 14.

“The horse went huge in the Blue Diamond,” Kennewell said. “We are heading to The Slipper with the positivity that we can run really well and have a good hope.

“He peaked a touch in the (Blue Diamond) Prelude (running third) and then had no luck in the Diamond, so I feel he can be peaking for the Slipper. He ran the fastest 600, 400 and 200 metres in the Diamond, and for half of that he was getting bumped sideways. We had the right horse, just not much luck.”

When asked about how the Victorian form is stacking up in comparison to the Sydney juveniles, Kennewell was quick to give the locals their dues.

“Never write them off on their home deck,” he said. “They are always hard to roll when we have to travel. Rain around also is another thing the Victorians don’t see as much of - although on pedigree and from what I have seen, my boy should be alright.”

No Slipper winner since 1990 has come from the Merson Cooper, but from 27 of those winners to run before Christmas, 19 have scored in those runs. While luck has shifted in recent years towards post-Christmas debutants, historically the early runners have had their toe in the ground.

The G3 Breeders’ Plate, the season opener for juvenile colts, has been a solid source of Slipper talent in that time. Five Slipper winners have emerged from the race, four of whom won the Plate, including Sebring, Capitalist, and Pierro.

“It does look an even, open year, and this year just gives the vibe that you could run the Blue Diamond again and get seven or eight different winners, and the Slipper could be that way also,” said Kennewell. “The form of our Victorian horses does look strong, but don’t rule the locals out.”

Victorian-trained Stretan Ruler (Wild Ruler) has booked his ticket to the big time via winning last weekend’s G2 Silver Slipper Stakes, which boasts an impressive record for Slipper winners; since 1990, seven Slipper winners have come through the Silver Slipper, where none finished further back than second on their run in.

Farnan, She Will Reign (Manhattan Rain), Mossfun (Mossman), and Pierro all scored silver before they achieved gold.

Trainer Phillip Stokes has never had a Slipper runner, so simply making the race would represent a milestone for the stable.

“I know what it will take to get him there and it’s just having the horse as good as we can on the day, and the rest will look after itself,” he told TTR earlier in the week.

Could a Queensland filly sneak in?

Queensland filly Pembrey (Prague) is another hopeful currently not nominated for the Golden Slipper, but connections have made it clear they’ll pay the $150,000 late entry fee if the five and a half length debut winner takes out Saturday’s Sweet Embrace Stakes, which comes with ballot-free entry to the Slipper. She heads betting for the weekend at $2.60.

“She’s just a real racehorse,” is how trainer Tony Gollan described his filly to SKY Sports Radio.

“She’s a real 2-year-old, she licks the bin out and just does what you want. She handles everything really well and goes about her business like a much older horse. That’s what the good 2-year-olds do, they act more like three and 4-year-olds.”

Bruce and Jason McLachlan were the last Sunshine State trainers to claim a Slipper, with Phelan Ready (More Than Ready {USA}) in 2009. Ironically, the Listed Phelan Ready Stakes has produced a Slipper winner, but Phelan Ready himself ran third in it.

Pembrey’s debut over 1000 metres in the wet at Eagle Farm certainly turned heads, with the filly leading from the jump and extending her lead in the home straight. The Sweet Embrace - which has produced four Slipper winners, all of whom ran top three - will demonstrate if she’s as good as Gollan believes she is.

“Even though it was only a six and it was downgraded to a seven, (Ben Thompson) felt it rode wetter than it was,’’ he said. “She’ll definitely handle wet ground and 1200 metres shouldn’t be an issue at all. It’s whether she’s good enough now.”

Garnering the interest of James McDonald for Saturday’s Sydney raid is always a positive sign.

“It’s great to have (James) on board,” said Gollan. “He’s a good bloke and obviously a very good rider, but we’ll wait and see what she does now and whether she measures up to the Sydney standard. It’s a big jump from the horses she’s racing (at home), but she couldn’t have been any more impressive and she’s certainly trained on, there’s been no dramas with her over the last fortnight.”

Sit back and relax for Maher

Ciaron Maher currently is the most prolific trainer in the top 20 horses on the Slipper ballot, with three currently close to securing a spot and a fourth just on the horizon. Within the top 10 sit Spicy Miss (Trapeze Artist) and spring standout Tornado Valley (Too Darn Hot {GB}), with Milsons Point (Blue Point {Ire}) within the teens and last start $160,000 Pierro Plate victress Ciaron’s Star (I Am Invincible) sat at spot 21.

Stay Inside is the only Slipper winner to have run - and won - in the Pierro Plate in the race’s short history. Ciaron’s Star will attempt to secure her place to replicate the feat via the Sweet Embrace, but Maher reported that wet weather could push the filly back a week.

“The Vinnies generally love it nice and firm and a decent footing,” he told Racing NSW on Thursday, an opinion echoed by his New South Wales co-trainer Johann Gerard-Dubord when speaking to RSN.

“Usually, they (I Am Invincibles) don't tend to like those wet tracks,” he said. “We have the option to either go two weeks (into Saturday) and three weeks into the Slipper, or wait an extra week, which will give her three weeks from last start and two weeks into the Slipper.

“We've got a very open mind. If there was a bit of give, there would be no issue, but if the track was too wet, we'd be waiting an extra week."

As for Spicy Miss, there is the luxury of planning where the daughter of Trapeze Artist - himself a winner of the Black Opal and sixth in the Slipper - goes, as her fifth place in the order of entry all but guarantees her spot. Saying that, she heads to the Sweet Embrace as her perfect lead up race.

“She was very good first-up,” Maher said. A talented maiden who was second on debut in the $1 million Golden Gift, Spicy Miss was last seen running second in the Listed Lonhro Plate to Agrarian Girl (Tassort). “She was carrying a bit of condition, (so) I thought she ran great and wasn’t beaten far. She will improve a lot and I don’t reckon a bit of juice (in the track) will hurt her.”

“After the Gift, we knew we were a good chance to qualify for the Slipper, so working back from the Slipper, we have left plenty of improvement to come," Gerard-Dubord said.

“We've still got more to come, but three weeks between runs and stepping up to 1200 metres will suit her, and a bit of rain around wouldn't bother her. Obviously, we'd love to get a win on the board, and if she did that or ran very well, we'd progress to the Slipper."

Should she not win the Sweet Embrace, Spicy Miss may have a tough mission on her hands; the last maiden to win the Slipper was Fairy Walk (Minor Portion {Ire}), fourth dam of Trapeze Artist, in 1971.

Bjorn Baker’s mixed preparations

Things have not been straightforward for the Bjorn Baker stable, despite a number of horses putting their hands up as potent Slipper prospects.

Warwoven (Sword Of State) put his first season sire’s name in lights with a strong debut performance to win at Randwick, then cruised around to follow it up with a win at Eagle Farm. He hasn’t been seen on raceday since being ruled out of the R. Listed Magic Millions Gold Coast 2YO Classic, but Baker sends him to the G2 Skyline Stakes with the confidence it is the right launchpad into the Slipper field.

“I believe he is fit and well, and has plenty of residual fitness from the Gold Coast where he was ready to go in mid January,” Baker said. “There's no easy races in terms of lead-ups to the Golden Slipper and in general with 2-year-olds, but he has a great attitude and I couldn't be happier with him.”

The colt currently sits 13th in the ballot order, which should ensure he makes the field, but every little counts and the Skyline works well; five Slipper winners have come from the field since 1990, two of whom won the Skyline. Most recently Shinzo was second ahead of his G3 Pago Pago Stakes victory.

“We need him and want him to perform, even though he is in the Golden Slipper field,” Baker said. “It’s probably his biggest ask yet. We want him to run really well and then we can go to the Slipper with a bit of confidence knowing he has a little improvement there for three weeks later.”

Baker will be resisting the urge to go to the Pago Pago after Saturday, emphasising the three weeks “works beautifully” for setting the colt up for the Slipper.

Plus, it keeps him separate from Baker’s other big hope Paradoxium (Extreme Choice), winner of the R. Listed Magic Millions Wyong 2YO Classic and in dire need of eligible prizemoney or a golden ticket, as sales company-based races do not count for the order of entry. Travel sickness knocked him out of the Gold Coast Classic and he has rested since.

After winning a trial earlier this week by over four lengths, the colt is set for the G2 Todman Stakes a week on Saturday, although Baker also indicated that they may also enter him for the G3 Black Opal Stakes on the Sunday as a back-up option. The Todman has produced nine Slipper winners since 1990 - Pierro and Farnan again receive their laurels, winning in both, with other eventual Slipper winners including runner-up Capitalist and fourth-placed finisher Stay Inside.

“He’s going to have to run very well and probably win to make the Slipper field,” Baker said. “His trial was excellent at the start of the week. He is going into a 1200-metre race which is a little question mark, (so) we needed him to have a proper hit-out and the trial did that.

“He hasn't got the same residual fitness as Warwoven, but the pleasing thing is we could see from the trial that he hasn't lost his natural ability, he had plenty of speed. and Jason Collett was absolutely thrilled with him.”

A Slipper has eluded Baker to date, so he is naturally excited to have two colts who could give the picture a solid shake - if they make the grade in their next starts.

“It’s such an important race in Australia racing and breeding,” Baker said. “It would be great to be there, so hopefully we get there in great order and can run a mighty race.”

Table: The order of entry for the 2026 G1 Golden Slipper Stakes as of February 23

Early boom horses spelling, unusual stallions at the top of billing, and trainers taking their first swings at the Slipper. The picture of who will be first past the post on March 21 remains a murky one.