Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Observer about to launch in the Guineas
The outstanding Ghaiyyath (Ire) colt Observer has clearly found his mojo and dominance in recent times and is in a rich vein of form that spans two preparations.
Since running a slightly unlucky third in the G1 Caulfield Guineas in October last year, the Ciaron Maher-trained and Godolphin-owned colt has put together a hat-trick of wins in the G2 AAMI Vase over 2000 metres, the G1 Victoria Derby over 2500 metres, and, resuming this preparation, the G2 Autumn Stakes over 1400 metres.
On the back of that form he has been installed as favourite for the G1 Australian Guineas over the mile at Flemington on Saturday - a victory that would be enormously important for his future once he eventually retires to stud. If successful, he would be the first horse since Hitotsu to complete the Victorian Derby and Australian Guineas double.
Observer | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
“I’m very happy with him, he’s made nice progression both mentally and physically. He was very good in the Caulfield Guineas. Flemington should be ideal for him, really nice big straight. He’s in good order,” Maher told racing.com earlier in the week.
The hardest to beat looks to be Sixties (Flying Artie), the talented colt trained by Chris Waller who won the G3 CS Hayes Stakes in arrogant fashion at his last start. Interestingly, the CS Hayes Stakes has long been a traditional lead-up for colts and geldings, with 17 Australian Guineas winners emerging from the race and eight completing the double.
While the spotlight falls on the two glamour colts and future stallion prospects, the blowout could be Observer’s stablemate West Of Swindon (Wootton Bassett {GB}). Maher believes there is improvement to come.
Ciaron Maher | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
“He’ll take quite a bit of improvement from his first-up run. He got back and his best run was at the Valley when he was on speed, so condition-wise he’ll definitely come on.”
It shapes as a defining race for Observer, who has already shown class and durability in equal measure and one that could really enhance his stallion credentials.
Waller and McDonald gunning for Group 1 number 51
The champion combination of Chris Waller and James McDonald has long been one of the most prolific in modern Australian racing. The pair have combined for 500 wins, including 50 at Group 1 level - an incredible 10% of their victories together at the elite tier. The magic 500th win came on Friday night when McDonald steered 3-year-old Justify (USA) gelding Defendant to victory at Canterbury.
The only trainer and jockey to have won more Group 1 races together are Tommy Smith and George Moore, who combined for 54 Group 1 wins, a national record that has stood for more than 50 years. While there are more Group 1 races run in modern times, the fact Waller and McDonald are closing in is testament to their sustained excellence.
James McDonald | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Now that they have ticked off the big 500, the next enticement is the prospect of Group 1 win number 51 with the unbeaten superstar mare Autumn Glow (The Autumn Sun), who looks extremely hard to beat in the G1 Verry Elleegant Stakes over the mile.
Autumn Glow was dominant in the G2 Apollo Stakes, scoring by just over two and a half lengths, and Waller suggested afterwards that she still has further improvement to come.
Autumn Glow | Image courtesy of Georgia Young Photography
"I don't know where her ceiling is and that is exciting,'' Waller told racingandsports.
"We keep referring to Winx and we didn't expect her to keep going (33 wins in succession including her world record 25 at Group 1 level). We are taking it one race at a time because racing can level you very quickly.''
"We are taking it one race at a time because racing can level you very quickly." - Chris Waller
Chris Waller | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
There would be a significant roar if Autumn Glow makes it 10 in a row, and Waller and McDonald can take another step towards Smith and Moore's record, but they will be just as happy to tick it off in the race before, the G1 Surround Stakes with Panova (Trapeze Artist).
The Hayes boys and a trio of Home Affairs fillies
It’s not too often that one training partnership saddles three runners in the same race that are all by the same sire, but that is the case in the opener at Flemington on Saturday. Ben, Will and JD Hayes line up three fillies by Coolmore Stud’s first-season sire Home Affairs in the Listed TAB We’re On 2YO event over 1000 metres.
Even more uniquely, in early betting markets the Hayes-trained trio head the market. Could there be a trifecta in the making? All three bring strong and slightly different formlines.
Home Affairs | Standing at Coolmore Stud
Gin Twist has had two starts and placed third in both, including a strong effort in the G3 Blue Diamond Preview (fillies) behind Rubi’s Choice (Rubick). La Gitana was placed in the G3 Chairman’s Stakes on debut behind Big Sky (Bivouac) and Jacaranda was a winner on debut at Seymour and then ran a very strong fifth in the $1 million R. Listed Inglis Millennium behind Fireball (Snitzel), where she charged home from well back in the field.
“We have been impressed by the progeny of Home Affairs that we have in the stable and hopefully one of these three can become Home Affairs’ first stakes winner in Australia,” co-trainer Will Hayes commented.
"We have been impressed by the progeny of Home Affairs that we have in the stable." - Will Hayes
Jacaranda as a yearling | Image courtesy of Inglis
“Jacaranda is probably the pick of the three, she ran really well in the Millennium, we have had to work on her tractability as she has been known to overdo it, but in the Millennium she raced truly. We think the straight should suit her.
“Gin Twist is an absolute professional, both her runs have been good and her jump-outs have been great.
“It has been a frustrating preparation for La Gitana. Early on in her career she was late scratched, as a couple of 16-year-olds crashed their car on the freeway and she got stuck in the traffic in 40-degree heat. She ended up running great in Group company a week later.
Gin Twist as a yearling | Image courtesy of Magic Millions
“Then last week at Adelaide she was somewhat controversially scratched at the gates and was sound and fine when she came back. So it has been frustrating but we are very happy with her.”
Winning any race is tough, let alone trifecting it, and it is by no means a guaranteed Team Hayes result. The upsetter could be Nikitria (The Autumn Sun), who comes from the in-form Clinton McDonald stable and has shown ability at the jump-outs, while the Tony and Calvin McEvoy-trained Cyclotron (Hellbent) is bred to be sharp and is sure to be well educated.
Will Hayes | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Tempted chasing deserved Group 1 success
If there was ever a filly that deserves Group 1 success, it would be the Ciaron Maher-trained and Godolphin-owned Tempted (Street Boss {USA}). Looking at her record she has won three Group 2 races, a Group 3 race, and been placed at the highest level in the G1 The Everest behind the world’s best sprinter Ka Ying Rising (NZ) (Shamexpress {NZ}), and has also placed in the G1 Golden Rose Stakes, and the G1 Golden Slipper Stakes.
One thing that may be of slight concern ahead of the G1 Surround Stakes this weekend is the fact that it is over 1400 metres, but her trainer Ciaron Maher is not too concerned.
“She’s developing all the time. She had a light prep last time around, she was very good at all her runs,’’ Maher told racingnsw earlier in the week.
Tempted | Image courtesy of Georgia Young Photography
“She’s only three, she’s still furnishing so she’s a bit stronger and a fraction heavier. All the mannerisms are pretty similar, she was pretty good first-up.
“I’m not concerned at all (about 1400 metres), she ran a peak first-up last time around and ran back two weeks and the winner was obviously very good.
“All the mannerisms are pretty similar, she (Tempted) was pretty good first-up.’’ - Ciaron Maher
“I thought we were solid. That’s why we took the extra week, we took on the colts and she performed accordingly.”
Maher believes that a good track would be better for Tempted but has no reason to be too concerned given her strong form on a soft track.
“She’s two starts on a soft for two wins, she’s yet to run on the heavy so she could be better. I’m very confident she’ll improve off her first-up run and from what she’s shown she should be extremely hard to beat.”
Maher said options beyond the Surround are open for Tempted, aside from ruling out stretching her beyond the 1400 metres, with the G1 TJ Smith Stakes shaping as a natural option.
“She ran second to the world’s best sprinter over 1200 metres, she’s against her own age and sex in a Group 1, so I don’t think there’s any need to go further. Last preparation we went back from 1400 metres to the 1200 metres of the Everest and she performed very well so we could do the same thing again with the TJ Smith.”
“She (Tempted) ran second to the world’s best sprinter over 1200 metres, she’s against her own age and sex in a Group 1, so I don’t think there’s any need to go further.’’ - Ciaron Maher
Although Tempted is a deserving hot favourite, it is a field with plenty of class fillies engaged. If there is to be a minor upset it could be the Group 1-winning duo of Apocalyptic (Extreme Choice) and Ole Dancer (Ole Kirk), who both resumed with second placings in their respective races and both looked as though they had improvement to come.
Onesmoothoperator steps into the unknown over a mile
In Australian racing it is rare to see a horse race exclusively at distances of 2000 metres and beyond, but that is far more common overseas. For the newly Australian-trained Onesmoothoperator (USA) (Dialed In {USA}), who remained in Australia after his successful spring campaign, Saturday presents a completely different test.
The 9-year-old, now trained by Bendigo’s Tim Fitzsimmons, will run below 2000 metres for the first time in his 47-start career when he lines up in the G2 Blamey Stakes over the mile.
Onesmoothoperator | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
“I have a feeling he will run really well, but you just don’t know as I’m training a 9-year-old who has never raced under 2000 metres before,” Fitzsimmons told racing.com.
“The owners came up and looked at my facilities on Bendigo Cup Day last year and decided they would give him to me to train,”
Two trial wins at Echuca have made connections feel optimistic.
“We asked for a little bit of an effort in his trials, and he finished them off well,” Fitzsimmons said.
Tim Fitzsimmons | Image courtesy of Fitzsimmons Racing
“It’s a little bit hard to get a guide as to how he will go,” he said. “He’s never raced at a distance less than 2000 metres in his life and he’s running as a 9-year-old over a mile for the first time.
“Obviously whatever he does he will improve on. It’s a nice starting point for him but I’m really happy with him. For a 9-year-old he’s up and about. He’s got a good spring in his step.”
“For a 9-year-old he’s (Onesmoothoperator) up and about. He’s got a good spring in his step.” - Tim Fitzsimmons
The Group 1 Australian Cup later this month over 2000 metres could be the next target.
“We will know more after the weekend,” Fitzsimmons said. “The plan is to have two or three runs. He has a Sydney Cup nomination, but we are also looking at the Mornington Cup in April.”
“He’ll have two or three runs for the preparation. The owners want to set him for the Caulfield Cup which will be the main target. The Mornington Cup with its win and you’re in for the Caulfield Cup could be a strong possibility.”
It’s an intriguing edition of the G2 Blamey Stakes with several staying types resuming or early in their preparations. Maybe Holymanz (NZ) (Almanzor {Fr}) could be the one to beat as he is well performed at the mile, while the class of Willydoit (NZ) (Tarzino {NZ}) cannot be discounted and he shapes as a sharp improver second-up for trainer Ciaron Maher.
