Cover image courtesy of Georgia Young Photography
Another thrilling weekend of Group 1 combat is behind us, and as the dust settles, we can take stock of the stars we witnessed on Saturday. Some are reaching their peak at the opening of the autumn, and some of them look like they are just winding up to explode.
Just what is Autumn Glow’s ceiling?
She was magic again, but where to now for Autumn Glow (The Autumn Sun)?
Saturday’s G1 Verry Elleegant Stakes over the Randwick Mile was run at a farcical tempo. Lindermann (Lonhro) led going around thirteen lengths below standard through his first 1000 metres, and the race ground along that way until the 500-metre mark.
Nevertheless, Autumn Glow ripped out the meeting’s fastest last 600 metres and 400 metres (without changing legs) to hold off a brave Aeliana (NZ) (Castelvecchio) - or should we call her Daniella Kowalski, with a bit of Kieren Perkins thrown in for good measure.
Autumn Glow’s final 600 metres was 7 lengths above Group 1 standard. That’s elite closing speed. There wasn’t much more she could have produced, given the circumstances.
But here’s the nuance.
Her 600–400-metre split and 400–200-metre split were both superior to Aeliana, yet their final 200-metre time was identical. That’s telling. It suggests that once Autumn Glow let rip, she put the race to bed mid-sprint - then over the concluding furlong, Aeliana was matching her stride for stride.
Autumn Glow winning the G1 Verry Elleegant Stakes | Image courtesy of Georgia Young Photography
You can read that two ways.
One: over further, Aeliana may be better suited. The way she sustained through the line hints that 2000 metres could bring her right into play.
Two: Autumn Glow may still have improvement to come, while Aeliana could be closer to peak fitness. If that’s the case, the margin between them might actually widen next time should they meet in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
The fascinating part is most punters would instinctively flip that logic, assuming Aeliana, as the more natural stayer, is the one with more upside. That is the usual script when stayers clash with milers at this stage of a prep; the stayer is “looking for further”, the miler is “more forward”.
Aeliana (NZ) | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
But what if the script’s wrong?
What if Aeliana is being trained to peak in the G1 Ranvet Stakes on March 21, a race identified months ago as her best shot at finally nabbing that elusive Group 1 as an older mare? If she can achieve that, anything at the Championships at Randwick afterwards becomes a bonus, not the target.
They went too slow for Sir Delius (GB) (Frankel {GB}) to compete. He needs a rolling tempo. His third placing has hidden merit and no doubt he’ll be the big improver given he was resuming here.
Don't write off Warwoven
The lacklustre theme for the 2-year-old this season continued in the G2 Skyline Stakes and G1 Sweet Embrace Stakes. Both contests were out slow and the winners ran home in average time, making it difficult to get excited about a Slipper prospect.
I see people dropping off Warwoven (Sword Of State). If you’re one of them, prick your ears. Last Saturday, 8 of the 10 winners jumped from barriers 10 to 14, while Warwoven was in lane 5.
G2 Skyline Stakes 2026 | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
He was first-up at 1200 metres without a trial and on the wettest track he’s seen under race conditions. He’ll improve a stack from that performance and he still holds the best figure so far this season.
The boys in blue continue to dominate
Meanwhile, Observer (Ghaiyyath {Ire}) stamped himself as top class, becoming the second 3-year-old in recent times to claim the G1 Victoria Derby-Australian Guineas double, following on from Hitotsu in 2021/22. He’s another horse people have potted since Saturday.
The claims are that he didn't run time and while it is right to say that, how can a horse who won a 2500-metre race two starts ago be expected to show zip over the mile?
The Guineas tempo was more than 2 lengths below standard, and Observer was never going to out-sprint them. For him to put a margin on them, he’d need a fast tempo to turn the race into a war of attrition - which by the way he still would have won.
So, in essence, he beats them when it’s a sit and sprint, and he has greater stamina reserves. That sounds pretty dominant to me.
Attica’s (Lonhro) performance in this week’s G1 Randwick Guineas might play a role in Observer’s immediate future. The main race target for Attica is the G1 Doncaster Mile where he will carry just 50kg, but he needs to get into the field and the Guineas can provide that.
If he’s Doncaster-bound, then Observer surely takes aim at the G1 Rosehill Guineas before a tilt at the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes?
Sprinters to keep an eye on
Tempted (Street Boss {USA}) got the job done in the G1 Surround Stakes but I doubt we’ll see her beyond 1200 metres again any time soon. She was just inside standard time overall, but her last 200 metres was a tad weak under the circumstances.
I wouldn’t give up on Panova (Trapeze Artist). She’s not the sit and sprint-type and needs tempo over these shorter trips. Her last 200 metres was only one length slower than Tempted, and she will improve sharply next start in the G2 Phar Lap Stakes.
Sticking with Godolphin and Australia’s best sprinter, Tentyris (Street Boss {USA}) is all set for the G1 Newmarket Handicap this weekend. Allotted 57kg when weights came out on Monday, he should take care of them in that devastating manner we’re growing to love. The freakshow continues.
