Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
This week, it’s the fillies and mares who impressed the most across all levels of racing. Where we can see the likes of the G1 Randwick Guineas and G2 Reisling Stakes winners next remains exciting.
Sheza smart one
We might have had four Group 1 winners last Saturday, but there’s only one horse rocking the ratings database.
Sheza Alibi (Saxon Warrior {Jpn}) was backed as if she was a class above her rivals in the G1 Randwick Guineas, but I doubt many people saw what was coming.
Firstly, this mare was second-up at 1600 metres, a distance she had only raced at once when winning the G2 Sandown Guineas and that run was off a tempo going 13 lengths below standard time. You could argue she was yet to properly tick the mile box from a data point of view.
If you had said to me that the pace was going to be six lengths above standard on Saturday, then I would’ve been adamant that Autumn Boy (The Autumn Sun) had the advantage. He won a brutal G1 Caulfield Guineas proving his ability to absorb pressure.
However, that’s not how it panned out - Sheza Alibi always had his back in the run, and simply moved across his heels and beat him like he was a benchmark horse out of his grade. Her last 200 metres was three lengths faster than his, and her overall time was more than two lengths above Group 1 standard.
Sheza Alibi winning the G1 Randwick Guineas | Image courtesy of Georgia Young Photography
I doubt Peter Moody will shy away from taking on Autumn Glow (The Autumn Sun), and the data suggests that Sheza Alibi could be the horse to end her unbeaten run - but that clash might have to wait as no doubt he wants to know if this freakish filly is just as effective at 2000 metres. The G1 Vinery Stud Stakes over the trip would provide a great guide to what spring plans are best for this girl.
At Flemington, Sass Appeal (So You Think {NZ}) did something we don’t see that often; win a Group 2 at first go over 1600 metres, while being fifth-up in her first prep. Most horses rate down from their third or fourth start in their debut campaign, but her rating jumped around six points when she smashed Group 2 standard time by seven lengths.
Sass Appeal winning the G2 Kewney Stakes | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
No pressure on Joliestar after Canterbury win
Joliestar (Zoustar) got the job done in a below average G1 Canterbury Stakes. But when they go six lengths below standard through the first 700 metres the first thing I think of is how good that is for Joliestar, because she races best fresh and these slowly run races allow Chris Waller to keep her fresh for more targets.
Surely four weeks between runs and into the G1 TJ Smith Stakes is the perfect path from here? That is, of course, until it belts down with rain at Randwick on Derby Day for the ninth time in 12 years.
While we are talking about the sprinters heading in that direction, we watched Tentyris (Street Boss {USA}) fail to fire in the G1 Newmarket Handicap. It is worth noting that all 10 winners at Flemington on Saturday settled in the top four.
You have to forgive Tentyris and, despite not knowing how he’ll handle the wet (should it eventuate), he is still my pick for the TJ Smith.
Joliestar winning the G1 Canterbury Stakes | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
The other unlucky runner in the Newmarket was Angel Capital (Harry Angel {Ire}), who couldn’t get a crack at them. Perhaps the G1 William Reid Stakes is a softer weight-for-age target for him next time out?
Slipper picture shake-up in the Reisling
Turning back to Randwick, and Chayan (I Am Invincible) looked the goods when winning the G2 Reisling Stakes by three lengths - but I will go out on a limb and say the runner-up Agrarian Girl (Tassort) will beat her in the G1 Golden Slipper Stakes if she gets a run.
Why? Because Agrarian Girl clocked the fastest split of the day between the 1000 metres and the 800 metres. Plus, she was coming off four weeks between runs and having her first go at 1200 metres.
Don’t forget Marhoona (Snitzel) last year was second in the Reisling to Tempted (Street Boss {USA}) but won the Slipper. In fact, 51% (11) of filly Slipper winners since 1991 have come through the Reisling, six of whom won the lead-up race and the other five finished no worse than fourth.
The reason why sometimes the Reisling result gets flipped is because Rosehill is traditionally far more conducive to leaders and on pace runners. Approximately three out of every four Golden Slippers are won by horses settling in the top eight of the field.
Paradoxium winning the G2 Todman Stakes | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Paradoxium (Extreme Choice) led the G2 Todman Stakes to win, but his rating was only fair. He would need to improve - and he can, given he was first-up here - to win the Slipper.
Sticking with the 2-year-olds, Medicinal (Brazen Beau) took out the G3 Ottawa Stakes at Flemington. Her overall time wasn’t flash, but a slow tempo thwarted any chance of running time and I noted she clocked the sixth fastest last 200 metres of the day - not bad given we also had a Group 1 1200-metre contest on the same card.
I suspect Medicinal might go even better on a genuine tempo. The Ottawa runner-up, Jadzia (Ole Kirk), is a moral in a maiden if they go there next start for an easy kill.
Medicinal winning the G3 Ottawa Stakes | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
