Does early performance pay off in the ring?

Cover image courtesy of Coolmore Stud

With less than a month remaining in the yearling sale season, the market is beginning to reveal how much early 2-year-old performance really matters for first-crop sires. 22 stallions have now had at least one Australian runner from their debut crop, but has that translated into a meaningful shift in sale ring demand - or are buyers still working off the same assumptions they held when these horses were yearlings last year?

As at March 9, Home Affairs leads the First Season Sire Premiership. He’s joined by Stay Inside, Wild Ruler, St Mark’s Basilica (Fr), Extreme Warrior and Sword Of State to have sired an Australian stakes-winning juvenile so far.

A spread across different sales

Home Affairs, Pinatubo (Ire), St Mark’s Basilica and Stay Inside are the only sires from this cohort with yearlings catalogued for the Inglis Easter Yearling Sale. Given Easter is typically dominated by proven stallions, with only a select handful of the market’s most commercial newer sires making the cut, that is not especially revealing in a broader sense.

In the next two weeks, Magic Millions will host both the Gold Coast March Yearling Sale and the Adelaide Yearling Sale. The Magic Millions March Yearling Sale is open to non-QTIS yearlings for the first time ever, and this has resulted in a greater spread of sires on offer for that sale compared to in previous years.

Table: Sires with first 2-year-olds who have yearlings still to sell in March 2026

Home Affairs leads as expected

With three seven-figure yearlings in his first crop, and an average of $309,000 across 102 yearlings sold at all yearling sales in 2025, Home Affairs was touted as the most likely stallion to be leading the First Season Sire Premiership. All the good judges had backed him with their money, and this far into the season, it seems the predictions were spot on.

Home Affairs leads the First Season Sire Premiership with three winners in Australia. His highest earner is Guest House who ran third in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes at his most recent start, while his Australian stakes winner is Gin Twist. He has an additional two winners in New Zealand including G2 Eclipse Stakes winner Kinnaird, and he leads the First Season Sire Premiership over there too.

For a horse who raced as a January 2-year-old, and improved to be a dual Group 1-winning 3-year-old, these early results reflect the support he had from breeders.

“We are pleased with his progress. He has seven stakes horses already. It’s a solid group of high class horses, including a horse that's coming to Sydney, being Guest House who is well fancied in the Golden Slipper,” said Coolmore’s Colm Santry.

Buyers have been slightly more cautious with his stock at the sales this year. He averaged $280,000 at the Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale, $197,500 at Inglis Premier Yearling Sale and $175,000 at the Inglis Classic Yearling Sale.

But his average last year was boosted by his Inglis Easter Yearling Sale draft, and the same is likely to be true again this year with a massive 17 yearlings on offer.

“The horse has had huge support the whole way through. There's huge continuity with this stallion to give breeders and buyers confidence. Coolmore have backed him with their best mares every year, and especially this spring when he benefited from the sad deaths of Wootton Bassett and So You Think, so he has a serious book of mares due to foal down later this year.

“As we saw with Caballus on the weekend, a lot of horses from that sire line train on. Throughout I Am Invincible’s excellent career, he hasn’t been a gun sire of 2-year-olds. The elite mares he’s had over the past few years have helped him, but generally, like that whole sire line, they train on and get better at three, four, and older. Home Affairs was a good 2-year-old but an outstanding 3-year-old, so it's all ahead (of him) with the stallion.

“The interest from breeders has been positive for Home Affairs for the upcoming season, which is always a good sign.”

Among his 17 Easter yearlings are Lot 1 a daughter of G1 Manawatu Sires’ Produce Stakes winner O’Marilyn (O’Reilly {NZ}), Lot 19 a half-brother to dual Group 1 winner Coolangatta (Written Tycoon), Lot 273 a half-brother to G2 VRC Sires’ Produce Stakes winner and young sire Lightsaber, and Lot 324 a half-brother to Hong Kong champion Golden Sixty (Medaglia D’Oro {USA}).

Stay Inside began with a bang

G1 Golden Slipper winner Stay Inside finished the 2025 sales season in second place to Home Affairs by average, ending up with a figure of $244,000 for over 60 yearlings sold. He began his stud career with a flyer, siring Incognito who won the G3 Breeders’ Plate back in October. Since then he’s added the stakes-winning filly Lassified (NZ) over in New Zealand.

Stay Inside is currently third on the First Season Sire Premiership for Australia.

The son of Extreme Choice was boosted by his early results to achieve an average of $233,000 at this year’s Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale. He averaged $104,000 at the Inglis Classic Yearling Sale and $97,000 at the Inglis Premier Yearling Sale.

Stay Inside has eight yearlings at the Inglis Easter Yearling Sale ready to boost his overall season average. Lot 97 is a half-sister to three stakes winners out of G3 SAJC Sires’ Produce Stakes winner Silent Surround (Face Value), while Lot 329 is a half-brother to G3 Breeders’ Plate winner Global Quest (More Than Ready {USA}).

Were the good judges spot on?

The other three stallions that were among the top five by average in 2025 were Sword Of State, St Mark’s Basilica, and Pinatubo. Two of those three have already sired stakes winners, while Pinatubo has Zambales who flew home for second in the G2 VRC Sires’ Produce Stakes on Saturday.

Sword Of State, who stands in New Zealand, sits between Home Affairs and Stay Inside on the New Zealand First Season Sire Premiership table, with most of his earnings at home coming from the Australian-trained Torture (NZ) who won the Listed Debutant Stakes at Caulfield back in October and was recently third in the R. Listed Karaka Millions 2YO.

The good judges backed St Mark’s Basilica and he’s had a great beginning with unbeaten Tasmanian stakes winner Aristopolos.

But there have been a few surprises so far this season.

Tiger Of Malay currently sits in second place on the First Season Sire Premiership, largely thanks to Tigroni who picked up a massive $300,000 for being the first Magic Millions Racing Women’s Bonus eligible horse past the post in the R. Listed Magic Millions 2YO Classic.

Tigroni was sold by Newgate Farm at the Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale for $85,000 to O’Shea Charlton Racing and James Bester Bloodstock. She’s no slouch either with three city placings from her four starts to date. As well as Tigroni, Tiger Of Malay has two juvenile winners being stakes-placed Momentslikethese and Forest King. He will be represented by debut winner Forest King in Saturday's G3 Pago Pago Stakes.

Tiger Of Malay averaged $51,000 at the recent Inglis Classic Yearling Sale, and he has 12 yearlings entered for this week’s Magic Millions Gold Coast March Yearling Sale.

Newgate Farm’s Wild Ruler sits in fourth on the First Season Sire Premiership, giving Newgate Farm the second, third, and fourth placed horses currently. Sire of the exciting Stretan Ruler, Wild Ruler averaged $105,000 at this year’s Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale and he has 11 lots catalogued for the Magic Millions Gold Coast March Yearling Sale and another 8 for Adelaide.

Extreme Warrior has only 47 live foals with his first 2-year-olds, but he is one of the few first season sires with a stakes winner on the board thanks to Eternal Warrior. It’s a great shame that Lloyd Kennewell announced on Sunday that Eternal Warrior had sustained a suspensory injury and would miss the G1 Golden Slipper.

Eternal Warrior’s Listed Merson Cooper Stakes win and his subsequent Group 3-placing lifted his sire’s fortunes at the recent Inglis Premier Yearling Sale where his second crop of yearlings averaged $119,000. Unfortunately, he has only 38 yearlings in his second crop, and there are only three more chances to buy one at the Magic Millions March Sale.

On day two, Bell River Thoroughbreds will present Lot 274 at the Magic Millions Gold Coast March Yearling Sale. The Extreme Warrior filly is the first foal of a Capitalist mare from the family of Tempted (Street Boss {USA}).

At the Magic Millions Adelaide Yearling Sale, there are two yearlings by Extreme Warrior. Noorilim Park presents Lot 40, a filly out of Cape Cross (Ire) mare Sheen who has produced two winners so far. Erinvale Thoroughbreds have Lot 183, a half-brother to G3 WATC Gimcrack Stakes winner Rio Del Mar (Magnus).

Table: Australian First Season Sires Premiership (as at March 9, 2026)