Cover image courtesy of Hawkesbury Race Club
For decades, Sydney’s autumn carnival has been a natural extension of the New Zealand 3-year-old season. But while several quality horses are still setting their sights on Rosehill and Randwick, the overall shape of the Kiwi assault appears to be evolving.
With the G1 New Zealand Oaks now run earlier at Ellerslie, the landscape has shifted slightly - creating fresh pathways for fillies and a legitimate option to also run in the G1 New Zealand Derby. Could this mean the old normal may be changing, and Sydney may not be a the natural extension of a 3-year-old campaign of which New Zealand horses have been hugely successful in the Group 1 races held over 2000 metres or longer?
Kiwi staying strength has been well established in the past
If several contenders do arrive in Sydney this autumn, history suggests they will command respect. New Zealand-bred 3-year-olds have enjoyed a remarkable run in Sydney’s staying features over the past decade.
Among the highlights are Lucia Valentina (NZ) (Savabeel) who captured the 2014 G1 Vinery Stud Stakes, and Rising Romance (NZ) (Ekraar {USA}) who claimed the 2014 G1 Australian Oaks.
The following years delivered further success, including Volkstok’n’barrell (NZ) (Tavistock {NZ}) in the 2015 G1 Rosehill Guineas, and Mongolian Khan (NZ) in the 2015 G1 Australian Derby.
Volkstok’n’barrell (NZ) | Image courtesy of Sportpix
Later winners in the G1 Australian Derby include Tavago (NZ) (Tavistock {NZ}), Jon Snow (NZ), and the G1 Rosehill Guineas winners includes Gingernuts (NZ) (Iffraaj {GB}).
In the fillies division, the G1 Australian Oaks winners include Sofia Rosa (NZ) (Makfi {GB}), Bonneval (NZ) (Makfi {GB}), and Pennyweka (NZ) (Satono Aladdin {Jpn}) and the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes winners include Prowess (NZ) (Proisir) and Orchestral (NZ) (Savabeel).
Whether the 2026 crop adds to that list in Sydney from a limited number of representatives - or more wait for Queensland - remains one of the more intriguing subplots of the autumn carnival and moving forward.
Calendar tweak opens fresh pathways
Underlying the shifting nature of the carnival is a notable change to the New Zealand autumn calendar.
Until 2025, the G1 New Zealand Oaks was traditionally run on the third Saturday in March at Trentham, leaving only a short window between the race and Sydney’s major fillies’ features.
In September 2025, it was confirmed the race would move to Ellerslie and be brought forward to February 21 from 2026 onwards.
The change was designed partly to help preserve the race’s Group 1 status but also to improve its position within the broader Australasian racing calendar.
Under the new structure, there is now a five-week gap between the New Zealand Oaks and the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes, and seven weeks between the Oaks and the G1 Australian Oaks.
That creates greater flexibility for Kiwi fillies, who can now contest the New Zealand Derby and return two weeks later for the Oaks - both at Ellerslie and over the same distance, before still having the option of heading on to Sydney.
Yulong pair settle into Australian base
Two fillies already firmly on the Sydney path are the Yulong-owned pair Ohope Wins (NZ) (Ocean Park {NZ}) and Autumn Glory (NZ) (Ocean Park {NZ}), both of whom have now crossed the Tasman to continue their campaigns in Australia with new trainers.
Ohope Wins already had the G2 Sir Patrick Hogan Stakes to her name before being purchased, and straight away proved an instant result when winning the NZ$275,000 G2 David and Karyn Ellis Fillies Classic at Te Rapa, before stepping up again to claim the NZ$575,000 G1 New Zealand Oaks at Ellerslie for trainers Lance O’Sullivan and Andrew Scott.
Ohope Wins (NZ) | Image courtesy of Kenton Wright (Race Images)
Autumn Glory may not yet have added a victory since Yulong have taken over ownership, but she has enhanced her record considerably. The filly was purchased after winning the G2 Waikato Guineas over 2000 metres against the boys at Te Rapa, and has since run second in both the G1 New Zealand Oaks and the G1 New Zealand Derby, collecting just over NZ$400,000 in prizemoney.
Both fillies are now established in Australian stables, with Chris Waller taking over the training of Ohope Wins, while Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr have been confirmed as the new trainers of Autumn Glory.
Autumn Glory (NZ) | Image courtesy of Kenton Wright (Race Images)
While on the Yulong line of thinking, their unbeaten star 3-year-old filly Well Written (Written Tycoon) that they own 50% of has gone out for a spell and will be set for the $10 million Golden Eagle in the spring.
“She pulled up well and had a couple of quiet days in the stable just to chill out, so she’s gone out for a very well-deserved spell,” trainer Stephen Marsh told loveracing.nz.
“She’ll come back in before the weather gets too bad, and to begin with we’ll just potter around with her. We haven’t talked seriously about any plans for next season and the only race in the back of our minds is the Golden Eagle in Sydney, but for now we’ll just let the dust settle.”
Well Written (NZ) | Image courtesy of Race Images South
Vinery shaping as the key Sydney target
Early indications suggest the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes at Rosehill will be the immediate Sydney objective for the pair, although Autumn Glory could bypass that assignment and head directly toward the Oaks.
Recent history highlights the strength of the New Zealand pathway into the race. Two of the past three editions have been won by fillies coming through New Zealand form - Orchestral and Prowess.
Interestingly, they arrived in Sydney via very different preparation routes.
Orchestral (NZ) | Image courtesy of Sportpix
Orchestral captured the Vinery Stud Stakes four weeks after winning the G1 New Zealand Derby, while Prowess took a different, less travelled path, claiming the Rosehill Group 1 just two weeks after her victory in the G1 Bonecrusher Stakes over 2000 metres at weight-for-age as a 3-year-old filly.
Belle Cheval joins the Sydney conversation
Another New Zealand filly with Sydney firmly on the radar is Belle Cheval (NZ) (Savabeel), trained by Mark Walker and Sam Bergerson.
The filly went within a whisker of landing the NZ$4 million R. Listed NZB The Kiwi, pushing Well Written right to the line, and connections now have their sights set on Australian black-type.
Now plans are being put in place for her to travel to Sydney and take on the likes of G1 New Zealand Oaks winner Ohope Wins and Autumn Glory.
The rise to middle-distance racing later this month appears well within reach for the Savabeel filly. She won both of her lead-up races over 1200 and 1400 metres and, in the Kiwi, made significant late ground on Well Written after still being near the tail of the field turning for home.
Belle Cheval (NZ) | Image courtesy of Kenton Wright (Race Images)
She had already shown top-level ability earlier in the season when placed in the G1 New Zealand 1000 Guineas, and Savabeel’s long-standing record of producing quality staying fillies adds further confidence about the step up in distance.
“She was so close to what would have been a dream result, but we’re still thrilled with her, so proud of our wonderful filly,” co-owner and breeder David Archer told loveracing.nz.
“I had a good talk with Mark (Walker) the day after racing and he was pleased to tell me she pulled up as if she hadn’t had a race.
“That being the case, and subject to everything going to plan in the meantime, she will be flown to Sydney and run in the Vinery, which looks ideal as a fillies’ Group 1 over 2000 metres.
“She (Belle Cheval) will be flown to Sydney and run in the Vinery, which looks ideal as a fillies’ Group 1 over 2000 metres.” - David Archer
“That will be it for this season, she won’t be going to the Australian Oaks, and the most likely plan then will be to head down to the Mornington Peninsula for a spell with a view to a spring campaign in Victoria.”
David Archer | Image courtesy of NZ Thoroughbred Breeders
Trainer Mark Walker echoed those thoughts, noting the performance in the Kiwi and the suitability of the upcoming distance rise.
“While it would have been fantastic to win on Saturday, you could hardly be disappointed with her, it was a very good effort,” Walker also told loveracing.nz.
“The way she races she should manage the step up in distance in the Vinery, so she’s gone to the water-treadmill this week and then we’ll build towards Sydney.”
Derby hero may skip Sydney
While several fillies appear likely to head to Rosehill, the G1 New Zealand Derby winner Road To Paris (NZ) (Circus Maximus {Ire}) may bypass Sydney entirely.
The gelding produced a strong staying performance to win the New Zealand Derby at Ellerslie, briefly raising the possibility of attempting the rare New Zealand–Australian Derby double - last achieved by Mongolian Khan.
However, discussions with connections suggest the G1 Queensland Derby could instead become his main target.
Road To Paris (NZ) | Image courtesy of Kenton Wright (Race Images)
Co-trainer Roger James explained that owner Ron Wanless was keen on a Brisbane tilt.
“I spoke to his owner Ron Wanless today and he said if it is possible, he’d prefer to target the Queensland Derby,” James told nzherald.co.nz earlier in the week.
“He (Ron Wanless) said if it is possible (with Road To Paris), he’d prefer to target the Queensland Derby.” - Roger James
“Ron is a Queenslander through and through, and he and his wife Judi would love to have a crack at their Derby, so if he was going to go to Australia, it could well be to Queensland.
“After talking to Ron, I will start working backwards from the Queensland Derby and see if we think it is doable."
Robert Wellwood and Roger James | Image courtesy of Trish Dunell
Co-trainer Robert Wellwood confirmed that the stable may have a couple potential candidates for Sydney but nothing set in stone, and also that plans are still to be fully finalised with Road To Paris.
Queensland increasingly on the radar
That thinking is not isolated across the board. Several New Zealand connections appear to be leaning toward Brisbane rather than Sydney this year, a shift that may reflect both changing campaign structures and a growing number of domestic opportunities.
The Wexford Stables partnership of Lance O’Sullivan and Andrew Scott are among those considering a Queensland campaign for some runners, Dylan Johnson from the Stephen Marsh stable suggested that they are bypassing Sydney at this stage and will see with Queensland, while Andrew Forsman’s racing manager Joe Walker indicated that Single Red (NZ) (Vanbrugh) - third in the G1 New Zealand Oaks behind Ohope Wins - could also head that way.
Single Red (inside) | Image courtesy of Megan Leifting (Race Images)
With many New Zealand 3-year-olds already having lengthy domestic campaigns, connections may prefer to freshen them before targeting the winter carnival rather than extending those runs straight into Sydney. Queensland also provides an opportunity for the later bloomers that can appear later in the season from no where.
Juvenile star weighing Australian debut
One New Zealand horse that could test Australian waters sooner rather than later is unbeaten juvenile Lara Antipova (Russian Revolution).
The Mark Walker and Sam Bergerson-trained filly has been dominant in her four starts, including victories in two Group 2 races and the G1 Sistema Stakes, winning by a combined margin of 17 and a half lengths.
Lara Antipova | Image courtesy of Kenton Wright (Race Images)
Two potential Australian options are now under consideration.
“We think she is up to Australian class and we look forward to getting her to Melbourne,” co-trainer Mark Walker told nzherald.co.nz.
“We think she (Lara Antipova) is up to Australian class and we look forward to getting her to Melbourne.” - Mark Walker
“There’s a race down the straight in the Group 3 Thoroughbred Breeders’ Stakes at Flemington, it will either be that at the end of this month or maybe the Percy Sykes in Sydney. It will be good to give her a look at the Melbourne stable with a view to the Coolmore Stud Stakes in the spring.”
Mark Walker | Image courtesy of Race Images
Walker added that her form already measures favourably against recent Australian performers.
“Her form stacks up with Bellatrix Star, who John and Jessica (Galvin, Fortuna Racing) raced,” Walker said. “She is every bit as good as she was.”
