Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Autumn Glow (The Autumn Sun) was the standout on Golden Slipper Day, in a meeting that offered plenty of insight for the everyday punter. On-course, the crowd soaked up a carnival atmosphere as James McDonald eclipsed the great Damien Oliver to become the leading rider of Group 1 winners on Australian soil.
Once the celebrations cooled, it was time to get to work - and there was plenty to unpack.
She just keeps glowing
Autumn Glow’s overall time was only just inside standard in the G1 George Ryder Stakes, but the way she got there is the real takeaway. Her last 600 metres was four lengths above standard (which was the fourth fastest of the meeting), and she clocked the fastest last 1200 metres of the day - a strong sign she’ll relish stepping up in trip.
After 72 hours of speculation, Chris Waller confirmed on Tuesday afternoon that her next target is the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
In my opinion, she wins wherever she goes. Sheza Alibi (Saxon Warrior {Jpn}) would make it interesting in a G1 Doncaster Handicap, while a genuinely run 2000 metres in the Queen Elizabeth presents a different test.
That said, there’s nothing in the data to suggest she won’t measure up - or win - in either scenario.
Guineas test didn’t impress
James McDonald’s record-breaking win came in the G1 Rosehill Guineas aboard Autumn Boy (The Autumn Sun), but the race itself was a farce from a tempo perspective.
Bingi (Snitzel) dragged the race right back, running nearly 7 lengths below standard to the 600 metres - completely taking stamina out of the equation. That played directly against Observer (Ghaiyyath {Ire}), a 2500-metre winner whose edge was his ability to outstay them. Instead, it turned into a sit-and-sprint, and he was left exposed.
The overall time can be ignored. It was all about the shape - and it opens the door for Autumn Boy to drop back to 1600 metres for the Doncaster Mile in two weeks, where a more genuine tempo would only enhance his winning chances.
Autumn Boy winning the G1 Rosehill Guineas | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Ranvet the perfect springboard
Before that, Aeliana (NZ) (Castelvecchio) took out the G1 Ranvet Stakes over 2000 metres in a driving finish, with Lindermann (Lonhro) brave in defeat after nearly pinching it.
Lindermann controlled the race early, rolling along at a crawl before the tempo lifted sharply from the 1000 metres (12.2s down to 11.5s per 200 metres). That’s a perfect setup to bring a horse on fitness-wise and have them ready for 2400 metres next start.
Aeliana was just inside standard overall and produced solid sectionals through the middle. Does she back up into a Tancred?
Aeliana (NZ) winning the G1 Ranvet Stakes | Image courtesy of The Image is Everything
I liked the run of Sir Delius (GB) (Frankel {GB}) and I expect him to turn the tables if they clash again this autumn. He was surprisingly last in the run and forced to make his move from the 1000 metres - not ideal second-up when conceding race fitness. His last 200 metres was the best of the race, which tells you he goes very close with a more forward position.
A genuine 1200-metre horse
Guest House (Home Affairs) showed once again that identifying genuine 1200-metre horses is still the best way to find a G1 Golden Slipper Stakes winner.
The G1 Blue Diamond Stakes was the fastest of all seven lead-ups, so it’s no surprise the winner of that race and the third-placed horse quinella’d the Slipper.
They went nearly 12 lengths above standard through the first half, which meant any runner covering ground or wasting energy was always going to be vulnerable. As the field fanned wide, Guest House held his spot and waited for the inside run. When it came, he cruised home with his last 200 metres in standard time, while others were dropping off.
This wasn’t about a sharp sprint, more a case of him sustaining while others couldn’t.
It tells us that he’ll relish fast-run races - a proper war of attrition. If the tempo isn’t there, there’s a case to let him roll and control it himself. He’s still learning, but horses with this profile either need speed on or a straight track to show their best.
Guest House winning the G1 Golden Slipper Stakes | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Caulfield track disappoints
The G1 Galaxy Handicap was largely uninspiring on the clock. Down in Melbourne, the G1 William Reid Stakes went to Jigsaw (Manhattan Rain), who ran to standard time and had every favour controlling the tempo within his comfort zone. Credit to Cindy Alderson, this older gelding has taken his ratings to a new level this preparation.
The big disappointment was Jimmysstar (NZ) (Per Incanto {USA}), who had no hope given how the track played at Caulfield. Despite no rain and a Good 4 rating, the inside lanes were completely off. That’s not good enough - especially when irrigation goes on after markets are up.
To make matters worse, several short-priced favourites drew gate one. That’s the kind of action that leaves punters fuming, and rightly so.
One favourite that overcame the inside was Treasurethe Moment (Alabama Express), who took out the G2 Sunline Stakes over the mile. She settled just over a length off the lead and produced the fastest last 200 metres of the day - a sign she’s getting back to her best.
Treasurethe Moment winning the G2 Sunline Stakes | Image courtesy of Racing Photos
This week, Group 1 action rolls on with the G1 Tancred Stakes and G1 Vinery Stud Stakes in Sydney, while Melbourne hosts the G1 Australian Cup.
All eyes will be on Tancred acceptances to see whether Aeliana and Sir Delius back up. Panova (Trapeze Artist) looks set to improve sharply in the Vinery, and Tom Kitten (Harry Angel {Ire}) should be favourite for the Australian Cup.
