Messara signals a shift as Arrowfield's stallion strategy evolves

Cover image courtesy of Arrowfield

Arrowfield Stud didn’t just have a good Saturday - it had a day that presented some interesting revelations about their ever-evolving strategies.

Across Rosehill and Caulfield, Arrowfield stallions were responsible for five Group 1 winners in a single afternoon. Only the Golden Slipper escaped. And that, more than anything, told the story.

Because for a farm that helped build Australia’s obsession with precocious speed, this was something different. A shift in emphasis and a quiet but deliberate move away from breeding purely for two-year-old brilliance, instead towards horses that peak later, stay further, and fit a prizemoney landscape that no longer revolves around the Slipper alone.

The results spoke clearly. At Rosehill, Arrowfield sires produced four of the five Group 1 winners: Autumn Glow (The Autumn Sun) in the George Ryder Stakes, Autumn Boy (The Autumn Sun) in the Rosehill Guineas, and Aeliana (NZ) (Castelvecchio) in the Ranvet Stakes. At Caulfield, Jigsaw (Manhattan Rain) added the William Reid Stakes - a reminder of Arrowfield’s extended influence, even beyond its current roster.

Only the Slipper, won by Guest House (Home Affairs), fell outside that orbit.

And in that contrast sits the bigger story: Arrowfield is no longer chasing the race that once defined it. It’s looking at where the program - and the money - is heading next.

Marhoona shows her class

Arrowfield Stud was not entirely absent from Slipper day, with last year’s Golden Slipper winner Marhoona (Snitzel) returning to win the G1 Galaxy Stakes as a 3-year-old. But for a farm that has bred multiple Slipper winners, the bigger takeaway from the day was a broader shift in emphasis.

“Fundamentally, only a very small proportion of the foal crop runs at two. I take the view that the best of the 2yo crop isn’t necessarily the best of the crop, because I’m all about sample size. It’s a small sample that runs at two,” said Arrowfield Stud’s John Messara.

So far this season, in the week after the Slipper, there have been 844 2-year-olds to face the starter for 154 winners of 192 races. This works out to be 6.6% of the 2023 foal crop of 12,790 foals.

Eventually, we will see between 17 and 20% of this foal crop at the races before the end of this season, and over 60% by the end of their 3-year-old season. This will continue to rise as they hit four but tends to level out after that.

“Australia has this peculiarity of concentrating on 2-year-olds because a great man, George Ryder, along with his troop at the Sydney Turf Club invented the Golden Slipper and it was by far the richest race around, so everybody did what people usually do. Chase the money,” said Messara.

“People started breeding to get 2-year-olds and it’s exciting to see a young horse fly. I get that. But it’s out of sync with the rest of the world. There should be 2-year-old racing but there shouldn’t be the emphasis on it that there is.”

That doesn’t mean buyers won’t find smart 2-year-olds at the Inglis Easter Yearling Sale and in Arrowfield’s consignment of 65 yearlings, there are 12 of the 39 Snitzel yearlings on offer across the whole Inglis Easter Yearling Sale.

A headline lot is Lot 43, the full sister to G1 Golden Slipper winner and seven figure yearling Estijaab (Snitzel). There are also full brothers to G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes winner Switzerland, Lot 451, and Hong Kong Derby victor Cap Ferat, Lot 241, while Lot 383 is a full sister to recent G1 Coolmore Classic winning mare Lazzura.

Still chasing the money at Arrowfield

Messara has combed through the data and listened to trainers who are saying they’d rather not push their horses so early, and seen the rise in prizemoney for older horses, and this has changed the focus at Arrowfield Stud when it comes to stallion selections. They are still chasing the money, but the money is now spread around more than the G1 Golden Slipper.

Bear in mind, that this is the farm that brought Danehill (USA) to Australia, and celebrated multiple Champion Sire titles with Redoute’s Choice and Snitzel, who were both renowned for their ability to sire precocious speed.

Gallery: Multiple champion sires that stood at Arrowfield Stud

“We have departed from feeling any obligation from just breeding horses who will be primarily 2-year-olds. We are happy if we get a horse who is a 2-year-old and trains on, by one of our stallions, but we are not aiming to just breed 2-year-olds anymore, because I think there’s a much wider program these days and a much richer program. The pattern is broader than just 2-year-old racing,” said Messara.

“We want to see high class form at three. And if they’ve got speed for Australia, that’s important too. Races like the Guineas which have a mix of speed and stoutness, I regard that as a good test of the type of horse I’d like to breed. We have a few of those in our ranks who could win Guineas, but there is no single rule, as you know, in breeding. So you have to have an open mind.”

The four Guineas horses on the Arrowfield Stud roster are G1 Rosehill Guineas winner Castelvecchio and his sire Dundeel (NZ) who won the G1 Randwick Guineas and G1 Rosehill Guineas. Hitotsu won the G1 Australian Guineas, while The Autumn Sun won the G1 Caulfield Guineas, G1 Randwick Guineas, and G1 Rosehill Guineas.

Castelvecchio has two yearlings in the Arrowfield draft, including Lot 280, a half-brother to Japanese Group 1 winner Urban Chic (Jpn) (Sauve Richard {Jpn}).

Gallery: Some of Arrowfield's draft at the 2026 Inglis Easter Yearling Sale, images courtesy of Inglis

Dundeel dominates with 17 including Lot 123, a half-sister to Group 1 winner Waltz On By (I Am Invincible), while Lot 63 is a full brother to G1 Doncaster Handicap and G1 Randwick Guineas winner Celestial Legend. The Autumn Sun is represented by seven yearlings in this draft, including Lot 93, a half-brother to G3 Canonbury Stakes winner Blitzburg (Snitzel).

Arrowfield Stud have been the leading vendor at the Inglis Easter Yearling Sale for eight of the past nine years, only missing in the year that Quinceanera (Pierro), the first foal of Champion mare Winx (Street Cry {Ire}) sold for $10 million.

Gallery: Four Guineas horses on the Arrowfield Stud roster, image courtesy of Arrowfield Stud

“A great horse can show something at two, but is he physically formed at that stage? Are you taking a risk running him in a high-pressure race at that age? Can he mentally cope with it?

“There are horses who are champions who can cope with anything, but I’m looking at it from a general point of view. It’s useful that they’ve had training and education, and my preference is that they get serious at three. If they are able to win races at a mile and for Australia, a mile and below division at three, that makes for a perfect target.”

All of Arrowfield’s four Guineas winners raced at two, with only Hitotsu being a non-winner at that age. Castelvecchio won the G1 Champagne Stakes at two, and The Autumn Sun won the G1 JJ Atkins Plate.

“If a Guineas winner runs as a late 2-year-old, he certainly has an advantage, having been through the mill and in terms of racing style and racing know-how, they are ahead of a horse who only runs in a Guineas preparation. There is a bit to racing and to (understanding) race craft, and if they’ve had some education at two, it’s a good thing.”

And some horses can do everything, like Arrowfield’s darling mare Miss Finland (Redoute’s Choice) who won the G1 Golden Slipper, then added four more Group 1 wins at three and four.

“Marhoona is very good to have done what she’s done. We also had that with Flying Spur. He was a Slipper winner who went on to win the (Australian) Guineas and the All Aged Stakes at three, and he turned out to be a good sire."

Flying Spur sired 99 stakes winner, 13 of those at Group 1 level.

“The good ones, who have that versatility, are good animals to breed from, because that’s ultimately what you are looking for.”

Not pushing Autumn Glow too fast

Messara used his star unbeaten mare Autumn Glow as an example of this. The 4-year-old mare has won all her 11 starts and was first seen in public when winning a trial as a March 2-year-old. She first raced in August of her 3-year-old season.

“When I gave Autumn Glow to Chris Waller, who is arguably the best trainer in and around the place and maybe the world at the moment, I asked him not to run her at two but that didn’t mean he couldn’t educate her at two, and that’s what he did. When three came along, he was able to start racing her. She was able to fill out within herself because she was a very big filly and needed maturing,” said Messara.

“I have another filly in South Australia with a young trainer, by the same stallion, and I’ve told him to do the same thing. The Autumn Suns are not natural 2-year-olds. He himself won at two but they aren’t naturals, generally. I said I want to see the same thing, educate her at two and run her at three.”

A massive study done by the University of Sydney looking at over 100,000 horses in Australia found that horses who raced at two had more career starts and a longer career than those who didn’t race until they were three. But this study doesn’t show when those horses raced or how many starts they had at two. One educational start in May is a different prospect to a pre-Christmas 2-year-old.

Education and doing work at two matters – the science is strong on that point - but the focus on earliness maybe doesn’t matter as much as simply getting to the races at some point in that first season of racing.

The impact of class on the equation

There’s a difference at play in this discussion between the best of a crop, like Autumn Glow who is obviously all class, and the general population. TTR mentioned that Ghaiyyath (Ire) who won his four Group 1s over 2000 metres and 2400 metres is currently leading the Second Season Sire Premiership in Australia, an obviously classy racehorse but without the precocious speed that is so highly sought after in the marketplace.

“Class plays a very big role,” said Messara. “There are no rules that fit all. It’s a case by case. Like human beings, each horse is different from each other. We can only see the exterior. We can’t see their mind and heart.

“We are going to test our own filly (Autumn Glow) over 2000 metres and she’s never run beyond 1600 metres. It’s a 400 metre extension, but I’m banking that her class will take her there. Even if her genetics aren’t fully supportive, class will make the difference.”

Autumn Glow is a daughter of Champion Sprinter and triple Group 1 winner Via Africa (Saf) (Var {USA}), and Via Africa also produced Group 1 winner and young sire In The Congo.

“There aren’t many (South African mares) here but the ones we have here are the best of their generation. We aren’t buying the run of the mill South African mare. (Australia) are buying the best performed. We’ve got a few at Arrowfield, and we are happy.”

The idea that class triumphs over location is a fascinating concept and one that Messara had learned a lesson over when it came to Hussonet (USA) who was a three-time Champion Sire in Chile when acquired by Arrowfield Stud.

“I remember when I bought Hussonet. His progeny were winning all these stakes races in Chile, and I thought to myself, ‘this is a small jurisdiction, I might be kidding myself.’ He had a huge strike rate. I wanted to be sure that the ones who had been exported to the US are competitive there. One of the part owners had a filly who he took to New York and I went along and she won a Group 1 in front of me,” said Messara.

She was Wild Spirit (Chi), the 2003 Chilean Horse of the Year, who made her way to the USA and took out the 2003 GI Ruffian Handicap in New York for trainer Todd Pletcher.

“I realised that the good ones are usually good anywhere else.”

International showcasing on the cards

Messara is very steadfast about the plans for Autumn Glow.

“It gives you comfort about our filly (Autumn Glow). She’s so superior here, she’ll be competitive anywhere,” said Messara.

“If we get through this race in a couple of weeks time, and we aim for the Cox Plate at the end of this year, there’s really not much else for her here unless you are going to go through a repetition of the same races.

“Then it might be time to show her off internationally and promote the Australian horse a bit.”