Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
It's a big ask but can Aeliana (NZ) (Castelvecchio) emulate Verry Elleegant (NZ) (Zed {NZ})? That is the question racing pundits are asking themselves following the mare’s resounding victory in Saturday’s G1 Tancred Stakes at Rosehill. She became the first 4-year-old mare to win the G1 Ranvet and G1 Tancred Stakes double since Tuesday Joy (NZ) (Carnegie {Ire}) in 2008.
Verry Elleegant settled for second to Addeybb (Ire) (Pivotal {GB}) in the Ranvet before winning the Tancred. Both her and Aeliana won a Classic race at Randwick over 2400 metres in their autumn 3-year-old season.
Verry Elleegant | Image courtesy of Sportpix
Trainer Chris Waller resisted temptations (and urgings from futures punters) to run in last year’s G1 Caulfield Cup with Aeliana. At one point she was the $4 favourite for the first of the coveted Cup doubles. Alas, yet again, Waller proved his brilliance. Aeliana has bagged two Group 1s this autumn and is again the favourite for the Caulfield Cup in October.
Comparison to Verry Elleegant
Let’s compare her to Verry Elleegant throughout similar stages of their careers. I prefer to look at a comparison over a 12-month period. It helps identify progression, which is particularly important when targeting Group 1 Handicaps. Makybe Diva (GB) (Desert King {Ire}) progressed lengths from her 6-year-old season to 7-year-old, which is why she was able to have her best season ever in her final campaign.
3-year-old; Verry Elleegant won the G1 ATC Oaks with a rating of 90, Aeliana won the G1 ATC Derby with a rating of 93.
Spring 4-year-old; Verry Elleegant best rating 89, Aeliana best rating 90.
Autumn 4-year-old; Verry Elleegant Tancred Stakes rating 94, Aeliana Tancred Stakes rating 93.
Aeliana winning the G1 Tancred Stakes | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
It must be said the Tancred Stakes that Verry Elleegant competed in was run at a tempo that was around four lengths quicker than the version won by Aeliana and therefore more likely to go quicker overall.
The obvious takeout from the ratings is that both went flat in their spring 4-year-old season, rating down on what they had achieved six months earlier.
When Verry Elleegant won the Caulfield Cup in 2020 she rated 94 on our system with an * next to her name. That’s because her last 200 metre was her strongest relative to benchmarks.
Verry Elleegant winning the G1 Caulfield Cup | Image courtesy of Racing Photos
It’s hard to know what weight Aeliana will get this year. Having no natural topweight or European raider will likely see the weights raised, otherwise she could get 55.5kg give or take. And off her current ratings, she would take some stopping with that.
A mixed bag among the rest of the day
The G3 Baillieu Stakes won by 2-year-old colt Southend (Palace Pier {GB}) was below standard this year, which caught me off guard. To the eye, I thought the race went okay. The winner remains unbeaten and you have to be cautious about putting a ceiling on a horse that’s yet to taste to defeat – how can you?
With Autumn Boy (The Autumn Sun) dodging Saturday’s G1 ATC Derby to appease the breeders (yawn), I suppose G2 Tulloch Stakes winner Storm Leopard (Ghaiyyath {Ire}) is right in the Group 1 2400 metre staying test.
Belle Cheval (NZ) (Savabeel) withstood a protest to win the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes over 2000 metres. Her sectionals late were very weak given the slow tempo and the overall time was nothing flash. I am not convinced that the Oaks winner will come from this race.
Idle Flyer (Dundeel {NZ}) was super in the G2 Emancipation. She gave the standard time marker four lengths at the 600 metres but wore it down and finished two lengths inside it courtesy of a slick last 600 metres that ranked eighth for the day. Her immediate goal no doubt is G1 Queen Of The Turf but for mine she looks perfect for the Brisbane winter – Kingsford Smith – Stradbroke Hcp – Tatts Tiara.
You might recall in last week’s column we discussed how Aeliana was coming out of a testing 2000 metres in the Ranvet where going up 400 metres on the back-up looked ideal? It’s a similar thing here with Storm Leopard. The Tulloch was on from the 1000 metres where the leader went from 12.8s between the 1200m and 1000m to 12.2s for the next section.
There was a little hidden run in the race from a horse called Dezignation (So You Think {NZ}) who had the best last 200 metres of the race and if you watch his stride, he’s a pure stayer. I reckon a drier track and a Lasqueti Spirit-style of ride might cause some anxious moments.
Melbourne moments to savour
Down in Melbourne, Pride Of Jenni (Pride Of Dubai) set a lead speed of +17 lengths in the G1 Australian Cup only to be rundown inside the last 50m by Light Infantry Man (Fr) (Fast Company {Ire}), who went back to back in the WFA feature. The race was 3.5 lenths inside standard time proving yet again that Jenni’s appearance ensures the best horse wins.
Satono Glow (NZ) (Satono Aladdin {Jpn} won the G3 Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes (1200m) in fair time but did clock the sixth fastest last 1000 metre of the day.
Who to follow on Saturday?
Sheza Alibi (Saxon Warrior {Jpn}) will go off a short-priced favourite in this week’s G1 Doncaster Mile at Randwick. She drew gate 13, which is ideal for a horse with her racing pattern.
Sheza Alibi | Image courtesy of Georgia Young Photography
Looking at the second leg of the 2-year-old Triple Crown, the G1 Sires Produce Stakes and Campione D'Italia (Snitzel) is the one from the G1 Golden Slipper while Wolf Gap (Palace Pier {GB}) looked in need of 1400 metres in a slowly run G2 Todman Stakes last start.
