Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Another ratings analysis on the performance of Sheza Alibi is just what you need, right? The thing with ratings is they’re just an opinion, disguised numerically to make it seem more factual.
Many racing pundits on social media appear to treat their ratings database as gospel. The scary addition to this - most of them don’t do the ratings themselves, but subscribe to a service that provides them with the figures.
How a horse gets a rating
I’d like to start this week’s column by enlightening people on how a horse gets a rating. For those experienced in the caper, forgive me for being simplistic, as this is a brief lesson.
Each class of race has what is called a standard time for a specific track and distance. As you could imagine, a 1600 metre race at Randwick run at BM78 level has a slower standard time than a Group 1 1600 metre race at the same track. Each class of race is assigned a base rating. For example, a BM78 might have a base rating of 75 and a Group 1 might be 95. If a horse’s overall time in that BM78 was 3 lengths above standard, it would rate 78 (75 base + 3). If a horse’s overall time in the Group 1 was 2 lengths below, it would rate 93.
There’s more to it, like bonusing and weight adjustment, but that’s the crux of a ratings system.
The problem is that every database has different standard times, and different analysts will bonus races differently. Plus, we all have slightly different formulas for how many lengths equate to 1kg.
Sheza Alibi rates highly
On our database, Sheza Alibi (Saxon Warrior {Jpn}) rated 95. Her time rating was 99, which is the highest we have for a G1 Doncaster Handicap. But because she carried 49kg, which is 5.5kg below standard weight-for-age, she loses 4 points.
That figure of 95 is still higher than Autumn Glow’s (The Autumn Sun) peak of 94. Ratings analysts will always favour the horse with the better time rating. The fact Sheza Alibi has gone to 99 means we are assuming an increase of 5.5kg will bring her back to 95 - that doesn’t always happen.
My guess is she sits around the 96–97 mark, but who knows if there’s improvement to come? For now, she’s the best in the country in terms of ratings.
Perhaps Autumn Glow says, “hold my beer” this weekend after the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes?.
Sheza Alibi winning the G1 Doncaster Handicap | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Joliestar smashes standard time
Joliestar (Zoustar) is headed for Royal Ascot after her G1 TJ Smith Stakes triumph. It’s hard to argue with this decision - this mare is returning career-high ratings.
Last Saturday, she smashed standard time by 3 lengths when recording her first win on a rain-affected surface. Once considered a wet-track duffer, Joliestar has become the benchmark sprinter in the land, with Jimmystar (NZ) (Per Incanto {NZ}) dropping off and Tentyris (Street Boss) failing to go on with it.
Joliestar winning the G1 TJ Smith Stakes | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Her TJ Smith win was her highest-rated performance of an illustrious career that saw her win at Group 1 level over the mile as a spring 3-year-old filly.
Blue Door impresses
There was plenty of hype about Blue Door (Stay Inside) after Bjorn Baker’s juvenile lit up the trials recently. The filly didn’t disappoint on the track, with a decisive victory in the G3 Kindergarten Stakes over 1100 metres over The Last Episode (Snitzel).
She was almost 4 lengths inside standard time which was a big effort, clocking the 11th-best last 600 metre time of the whole day.
Blue Door winning the G3 Kindergarten Stakes | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Does the clock back up Campione D’Italia’s performance?
Campione D’Italia (Snitzel) won the G1 Sires’ Produce Stakes over 1400 metres, showing how beneficial a fast-run 1200 metre lead-up is for a 2-year-old going to 1400m for the first time.
The clock wasn’t kind to Campione D’Italia, showing he was outside standard time off a genuine tempo. It wouldn’t surprise to see a different form line take out the G1 Champagne Stakes next week.
Campione D’Italia winning the G1 Sires' Produce Stakes | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Profoundly impressive – Should be the Oaks favourite
Speaking of potting Group 1 races as the right form line, we poured cold water on the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes last week, won by Belle Cheval (NZ) (Savabeel) and suggested watching the G3 Adrian Knox Stakes, as it may provide a better guide to the G1 Australian Oaks.
The Michael Freedman-trained Profoundly (Farnan) won the Adrian Knox in fast time. She was 5 lengths inside standard time, and her last 200 metres in 11.72 seconds was the same as Joliestar. This looks the form for the Oaks this weekend.
Expect her to start favourite, not Ohope Wins (NZ) (Ocean Park {NZ}).
Profoundly winning the G3 Adrian Knox Stakes | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Green Spaces dominant in the Derby
Still on the Group 1 Classics, Green Spaces (Street Boss {USA}) was dominant in the G1 Australian Derby, especially when you consider he only had his first run beyond a mile in the G1 Rosehill Guineas when finishing second behind Autumn Boy (The Autumn Sun) and ahead of Observer (Ghaiyyath {Ire}).
That lead-up was a sit-and-sprint, so this 3-year-old must have a fair bit of natural staying ability which bodes well for his future.
Green Spaces winning the G1 AJC Australian Derby | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Plaintiff one to watch
One horse you want in your blackbook is Plaintiff (Zoustar), who took out the G3 PJ Bell Stakes over 1200 metres to take her record to four from four. She was taken back from a wide gate and got to the better ground in the home straight – the last three winners on Saturday were in lanes 17, 18 and 18.
But she still clocked her last 400 metres in a slick 22.4 - only two horses came home quicker, and one of them is the best in the land in Sheza Alibi.
Plaintiff winning the G3 PJ Bell Stakes | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
