Cover image courtesy of Sportpix
Of the 46 individual juvenile stakes winners in Australia this season - across 52 races before this Saturday's Champagne Stakes - precisely 80% went through a yearling sale. Another three were sold via Digital sales. One came through a weanling sale. Just nine went through no sale at all.
That figure demands context. In 2023, Australia's foal crop numbered 12,788. Only 5,214 of those - 41% - were catalogued at a yearling sale. Fewer than half the foal crop is commercially bred. And yet those horses account for four in every five juvenile stakes winners.
Kerrie Tibbie | Image courtesy of Goodwood Farm
The reason isn't mysterious.
"There's nothing like a yearling sale to mature a horse," says Kerrie Tibbie of Goodwood Farm, who prepared Listed Without Fear Stakes winner Verzain (Zousain) - sold at Magic Millions Gold Coast for $40,000 - for the sales ring.
"By the time they've been through a sale, I reckon they're halfway educated. It just matures them."
| 2023 foal crop | 12788 | - | 46 | - |
| Catalogued | 5214 | 41% | 37 | 80% |
| Lots Sold | 3678 | 29% | 36 | 78% |
| Not offered | 7574 | 59% | 9 | 20% |
Table: The baseline figures for the 2023 Australian foal crop and 2-Year-Old stakes winners this season (to April 16).
Price point matters, but less than you'd think
Once a horse has gone through a sale, the next variable is spend. The median yearling price in 2025 was $75,000. Horses who sold at or above that median account for 61% of this season's juvenile stakes winners, while representing just 14.4 per cent of the total foal crop.
The $200,000–$499,999 bracket punches hardest: 5% of the foal crop, 37% of the stakes winners.
At the top end, the case is even starker. Yearlings who made $500,000 or more represent just two per cent of all foals born in 2023, yet that group has already produced nine per cent of this season's juvenile stakes winners.
Hidrix | Image courtesy of Georgia Young Photography
Extreme Choice colt Hidrix - $1.7 million from Coolmore's Inglis Easter draft, purchased by Chris Waller, Guy Mulcaster, and B2B Thoroughbreds - won the G3 Canonbury Stakes on debut. Stay Inside colt Incognito cost James Harron Bloodstock and Tony Fung's Colt Partnerships $1 million at Magic Millions and won the G3 Breeders' Plate first start.
The bottom of the market still outperforms the unsold. The cheapest yearling stakes winner this season was Hard Kick (All Too Hard), purchased for $30,000 at Magic Millions Adelaide, pinhooked by Avesta Bloodstock into the Inglis Ready2Race Sale, and resold to Lindsay Park for $140,000.
The cheapest winner of all - just $1,250 via Digital sale - was Never Ordinary (Dirty Work), which suggests the pathway matters more than the price, provided the horse gets there.
| Catalogued | 5214 | 41% | 37 | 80% |
| Lots Sold | 3678 | 29% | 36 | 78% |
| $500k + | 210 | 2% | 4 | 9% |
| $200k-$499k | 631 | 5% | 17 | 37% |
| $75k-$199k | 1006 | 8% | 7 | 15% |
| Under $75,000 | 1831 | 14% | 8 | 17% |
| Not offered | 7574 | 59% | 9 | 20% |
| Total | 12788 | - | 46 | - |
Table: Yearling sale and juvenile performance split by yearling price
The Champagne Stakes as a microcosm
Saturday's G1 Champagne Stakes field of 13 reflects the broader trend with near-precision: ten runners (77%) were offered and sold as yearlings.
Of the remaining three, two are Godolphin-bred - and it's worth noting that Godolphin horses arguably receive a comparable level of early education to those who go through a public sale. The operation's recent results with their 3-year-old crop suggest the process is working.
"I keep coming back to the processes and procedures in place and the people doing it," bloodstock manager John Sunderland has said.
"We're a breed to race operation, to try and produce stallions. That's ultimately what our business model is."
"We're a breed to race operation, to try and produce stallions. That's ultimately what our business model is." - John Sunderland
The third non-sale runner, Don't Look Back (Saxon Warrior), sold via Inglis Digital for $6,500.
The favourite, Campione D'Italia (Snitzel), was purchased for $500,000 and is the most expensive horse in the field. Winner of both the G2 Skyline Stakes and last start G1 Sires' Produce Stakes, he was fourth in the Golden Slipper and arrives here in career-best form. His trainer is in no doubt about the logic of running.
Campione D'Italia | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
"Group 1s are so hard to win, and when you're in good form and there's a Group 1 race just for 2-year-olds in your backyard, it's hard to ignore," Chris Waller said.
"When he returns, he will have a Group 1 penalty in The Run To The Rose. You don't know where you draw. Then you've got to go to the Caulfield Guineas and travel for the first time around Caulfield. There are a lot of unknowns, whereas he's here."
Eight of the 13 runners cost more than the median yearling price. Three came from the lower half of the market. One, effectively, cost the same as a decent dinner for two.
Chris Waller | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
The data, this season at least, tells a consistent story. Going through a yearling sale matters. Spending more at that sale increases your chances further. But a good horse will find a way through - and the sale ring is where most of them start.
