The Run For The Roses: Into Mischief looms large over America’s biggest Classic event

Cover image courtesy of Kentucky Derby

When you think of American horse racing, what comes to mind first is the G1 Kentucky Derby. The 152nd Run For The Roses takes place on Saturday where a field of 20 will try to take a step towards greatness and claim the first leg of the Triple Crown.

Renegade has history against him with draw

The annual Kentucky Derby post-position draw isn't so much about landing a favourable gate assignment as avoiding a poor one. The task for the fast-closing Renegade got quite a bit tougher on Saturday when the flashy son of Into Mischief (USA) drew the historically unrewarding inside post for the May 2 Derby.

Much of the pre-race speculation will focus on whether or not Renegade (USA) can overcome a starting stall that has not yielded a Derby winner since 1986, when the 17-1 Ferdinand (USA) got bumped to the back, rallied wide, then darted up the rail in the stretch under a heady ride by 54-year-old Bill Shoemaker.

But a sizable chunk of the intrigue leading up to Derby 152 will involve whether or not the stigma of being buried down near the fence will be enough to sway horseplayers off the 4-1 morning-line favourite, who had been expected to carry the brunt of the betting in Louisville since his explosive victory in the March 28 G1 Arkansas Derby.

Since the advent of the use of a starting gate for the Derby in 1930, the horses starting from post one are 8-5-5 from 96 starts with an 8.3% win percentage and an 18.8% in-the-money ratio. The other Derby winners who broke from the rail since 1930 were Chateaugay (USA) (1963), Hill Gail (USA) (1952), Citation (USA) (1948), Gallahadion (USA) (1940), Lawrin (USA) (1938) and War Admiral (USA) (1937).

Despite being up against the rail-related historical metrics, Renegade does have a couple of things going for him that might mitigate the disadvantages of the innermost stall. The first is that he's powerful but agile, and a very efficient mover. Although Renegade's preferred style is to attack from the back of the pack, he's not a bulky, lumbering closer.

Additionally, with the main speed of the Derby parked much farther outside and other off-the-pace types breaking from into gates two, four and five, Ortiz will likely not face a crush of inside-drawn competition gunning to secure a spot at the fence. Renegade, at least in theory, should be athletic enough to outbreak those rivals and gain decent positioning.

But we've never actually seen Renegade race effectively at the inside in five lifetime races.

In the G1 Arkansas Derby, after a couple of back-of-pack momentum stalls while contemplating going through narrow gaps between horses, Ortiz again unleashed Renegade five deep on the far turn, blasting off through the stretch to win by four lengths.

Is it a dealbreaker that both of this colt's winning moves have been from way out wide and we have still never seen him successfully fight his way through inside adversity? Not necessarily. Renegade's blitzingly fast finishing fractions and visually arresting stretch drives might be enough to establish his status at the top of the crop, regardless of post position.

Can Mott double up for history?

After teaming up for a win in last year's Kentucky Derby with the aforementioned 2025 Horse of the Year Sovereignty (USA) (Into Mischief {USA}), Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott and jockey Junior Alvardo will be back with G1 Florida Derby third-place finisher Chief Wallabee (USA) (Constitution {USA})). He will race with first-time blinkers and has attracted a lot of attention since posting a flashy five-furlong workout beneath the Twin Spires on April 20.

The last trainer-jockey combination to win consecutive Kentucky Derbys was Ron Turcotte and Lucien Laurin, who connected with Riva Ridge (USA) (1972) and Secretariat (USA) (1973).

Bill Mott's son Riley will have his first two Kentucky Derby starters with the Pin Oak Stud pair of G2 Wood Memorial Stakes winner Albus (USA) (Yaupon {USA}) and Virginia Derby winner Incredibolt (USA) (Bolt d'Oro {USA}).

Who appeals most to the TDN team?

After the draw this week, Renegade was deemed the 4-1 favourite. Others close in the market are: Commandment (USA) (Into Mischief {USA}) (6-1), Further Ado (USA) (Gun Runner {USA}) (6-1), Chief Wallabee (8-1), The Puma (USA) (Essential Quality {USA}) (10-1), and Emerging Market (USA) (Candy Ride {Arg}) and So Happy (USA) (Runhappy {USA}) are both at 15-1.

TD Thornton of TDN wrote a set of pros and cons for each runner, and here are the favourites.

Commandment

Pros: Commandment is all about reliability and sturdiness, delivering no-nonsense wins despite routinely having to adapt his running style to overcome less-than-ideal tactical circumstances.

This Brad Cox-trained son of Into Mischief - a US$500,000 ($696,000) graduate of the Keeneland September Yearling Sale- has won four straight. His prep path to Louisville includes a victory by a nose in the three-way G1 Florida Derby photo, a race that was deeper in talent than any other stakes on the 2025-26 qualifying schedule.

Cons: It's difficult to knock a colt who has just paired Beyer Speed Figures of 101 and 100. The last 10 winning Beyers for the Derby have all been between 100 and 105, so Commandment is already across that threshold. But horses coming off last-race, triple-digit Beyers aren't the ones prevailing in the Derby of late.

In each of the last five years, the horses who crossed the finish wire first in the Derby all attained their respective 100-to-105 Beyers by leapfrogging their last-race numbers by double-digit points: Sovereignty 104 (+12), Mystik Dan (USA) 100 (+11), Mage (USA) 105 (+11), Rich Strike (USA) 101 (+17), and Medina Spirit (USA) (Protonico {USA}) 102 (+12).

Further Ado

Pros: With a 20-length, two-turn maiden blowout in his third lifetime start and an 11-length dismantling of the GI1Blue Grass Stakes, the light-on-his-feet Further Ado has stamped himself as a colt who can deliver thorough clock-cleanings of his competition.

This Brad Cox trainee by Gun Runner, who made US$550,000 ($766,000) as a 2-year-old at the OBS April Breeze Up Sale, appears to be peaking at the right time. His 92-Beyer second in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby was notable considering he wasn't fully cranked coming off a three and a half month layoff, yet he was the only contender to force the issue up front then stick around at the finish.

In the Blue Grass, Further Ado stalked in third, gradually built momentum with an in-hand run through the far turn, then kicked away at the quarter pole, running up the score with a 106-Beyer blowout.

Cons: Despite a 3-1-1 record from six lifetime starts, with the last three in Graded stakes company, Further Ado has only once finished ahead of another horse who has won a Graded stakes.

Chief Wallabee

Pros: This homebred son of Constitution (USA) from Bill Mott's stable is currently 21st on the qualifying points list. He got a useful learning experience while not fully throttled in the Florida Derby. A bet on him in the Kentucky Derby is a wager that Chief Wallabee will show a more focused response when cued to quicken.

This colt raced covered up behind the top two in the Florida Derby, but got locked and boxed at the rail. Junior Alvarado swung four wide for the drive, but after he had to yank Chief Wallabee off heels in upper stretch, he never quite regained his momentum (although Chief Wallabee did re-engage when Commandment roared alongside a sixteenth out).

Chief Wallabee ended up third, beaten just a half-length, and he pursued Commandment with zeal in the gallop-out. His lifetime Beyers are 89-100-99.

Cons: Since 1900, 29 horses have tried the Derby off exactly three lifetime starts. Only four three-start horses have won: Regret (USA) (Broomstick {USA}) (1915), Big Brown (USA) (2008), Justify (USA) (2018) and Mage (2023). Of the remaining 25, only one finished better than seventh in the Derby: Curlin (USA), third in 2007.

The Puma

Pros: Since January 10, The Puma has beaten Further Ado by three-quarters of a length, lost by a nose to Commandment, finished third behind Renegade, and has once beaten and been beaten by Chief Wallabee. This Gustavo Delgado trainee most recently ran a sharp second in the Florida Derby.

The Puma's sustained rally enabled him to get first run at the favourite, then, after putting that rival away, he had to dig down deep to try and fend off serious late bids from both Commandment and Chief Wallabee. He was ahead of Commandment one jump before the wire and one jump after it in a tight photo-finish.

Cons: The Puma, a US$150,000 ($210,000) OBS April Breeze Up graduate, toured the track four wide in both those stakes, and giving up that much ground can be too costly to overcome in the Kentucky Derby, especially coming off a taxing final prep.

The Puma's sire, Essential Quality (USA), is a prime example. The undefeated juvenile champ was consistently kept outside in his races, and went off favoured in the 2021 Derby off a demanding win in the Blue Grass. He got parked wide on both turns, then had no spark for the stretch, finishing a best-of-the-rest fourth.

Emerging Market

Pros: You have to buy into the not-yet-fully-formed “phenom” vision of Emerging Market to make a cogent case for him winning the Derby in just his third lifetime start.

But the charismatic aplomb of this US$185,000 ($258,000) Keeneland September Yearling colt's first two victories does make that convention-defying paradigm seem reach-out-and-grab-it possible.

This Chad Brown-trained son of Candy Ride (Arg)'s dive-bomb stretch attacks in his maiden win and the 1 3/16-mile G2 Louisiana Derby have been punctuated by sustained intensity. Emerging Market has twice gone shoulder-to-shoulder with rivals before drilling them into defeat in the shadow of the wire.

Cons: The angle of exactly two starts before the Derby has produced only one winner in the 151-year history of the race (Leonatus (USA) in 1883). It's such a rare occurrence that that prep path has only been attempted six times since 1937.

So Happy

Pros: A winner in three of his four races and only beaten two and a quarter lengths in his lone defeat, the Mark Glatt-trained So Happy has tactical speed and a 100-Beyer win over nine furlongs.

Beyond his 7-1 upset in the Santa Anita Derby, So Happy also hit the winner's circle in his six and a half furlong maiden debut at 38-1 odds and in the seven-furlong G2 San Vicente Stakes.

Cons: Although the Blame (USA) and Seeking The Gold (USA) influences on the female side lend stoutness to his pedigree, this son of 2015 champion sprinter Runhappy (USA) could find it challenging to make an impact over 10 furlongs.