Cover image courtesy of Magic Millions
The 2026 Magic Millions National Weanling Sale was not simply a smaller sale: it was a different-shaped sale. The catalogue has contracted from the post-COVID highs, the aggregate has fallen to a five-year low, and the top quartile is no longer operating at the levels seen in 2022 and 2023.
But the median has recovered from its 2024 low, and the bottom quartile has strengthened. That is where the real story begins.
Globally, buyers and vendors are operating in a more cautious environment. The war in the Middle East shows no sign of abating, and sales across Europe have been mixed in recent months. Locally, the pressure is more specific: fewer foals were born in 2025 than in 2024, and that contraction is now flowing through to the sales ring.
But the numbers suggest more than a smaller foal crop. The physical weanling market appears to be becoming more selective. Vendors are more conscious of the cost of taking lower-value stock to auction, while digital sales now provide another avenue for horses that may not justify a full physical sale campaign.
Our quartile analysis shows a market that has cooled at the top and narrowed overall, but become firmer at the floor. In other words, the weanling market has not just shrunk, but it has totally shifted.
A shrinking foal crop and less risk appetite
The smaller catalogue is the first sign of the shift.
In 2022, the Magic Millions National Weanling Sale catalogue numbered 402 lots. It rose to 478 in 2023, before falling to 360 in 2026. It reflects a market where fewer foals are being bred, and vendors are making harder decisions about which horses justify the cost and risk of a physical sale.
The average has come off the post-COVID high of $88,484 in 2022, falling to a five-year low of $74,551 in 2024 before recovering slightly to $76,724 in 2026.
The median followed a similar path. It dropped from $52,000 in 2022 to $40,000 in 2024, then lifted to $46,000 this year.
2026 Magic Millions National Weanling Sale | Image courtesy of Magic Millions
Even with that cooling, Magic Millions remains Australia’s strongest weanling sale by average. Its 2026 average of $76,724 sits ahead of the record $66,465 achieved at the Inglis Australian Weanling Sale, while the Great Southern Sale averaged $44,762 in 2025.
The gap between the three sales may be narrowing, but Magic Millions is still where the top end of the weanling market is most clearly tested.
Figures as at 28/05/2026 from Magic Millions website
| 2,026 | 360 | 208 | 88 | 64 | $76,724 | $46,000 | $15,958,500 | 76.47% | $680,000 |
| 2,025 | 371 | 233 | 64 | 74 | $78,164 | $45,000 | $18,212,100 | 75.90% | $550,000 |
| 2,024 | 383 | 253 | 72 | 57 | $74,551 | $40,000 | $18,861,500 | 81.61% | $800,000 |
| 2,023 | 478 | 272 | 105 | 101 | $81,842 | $50,000 | $22,261,000 | 72.92% | $925,000 |
| 2,022 | 402 | 252 | 91 | 59 | $88,484 | $52,000 | $22,298,000 | 81.03% | $750,000 |
Table: Magic Millions National Weanling Sale Five Year metrics
Quartile analysis
The smaller catalogue flowed directly into the gross.
Only 203 weanlings sold on the day, rising to 208 four days later. That compares with a five-year peak of 272 sold in 2023.
As a result, the sale’s aggregate of $15.9 million was the lowest recorded at this sale in the past five years.
The top end of the market – the highest priced 25% of lots sold at the Magic Millions National Weanling Sale – has fallen 18% in the past five years, while the whole sale’s average has fallen 13% from the post-COVID peak in 2022.
The middle of the market has shown falls in the second quartile, in line with the falls at the top, while the third quartile has stayed fairly steady.
The bottom 25% of the catalogue, however, has lifted by four per cent. That is the part worth pausing on.
Every breeder knows that physical auctions are expensive. Preparation, transport, staff, commission and the risk of coming home without a result all have to be justified before a vendor sends a weanling through the ring.
For higher-end stock, that equation will very much pay off with two live bidders going head to head competitively. For weaker commercial horses, it is becoming harder to justify - particularly when digital sales now provide a lower-cost alternative. That may help explain why the bottom quartile has improved. It may mean some of the horses that once pulled the bottom down are no longer being offered at this type of physical sale.
A separate analysis of weanlings sold through digital platforms would be needed to test that properly. But the numbers point to a physical market that is becoming more curated, not simply one that is falling.
| 2026 | 208 | $76,724 | $194,038 | $74,029 | $30,154 | $8,673 |
| 2025 | 233 | $78,164 | $207,500 | $70,819 | $29,095 | $8,171 |
| 2024 | 253 | $74,551 | $198,968 | $62,548 | $29,119 | $8,617 |
| 2023 | 272 | $81,842 | $217,794 | $71,574 | $31,279 | $6,868 |
| 2022 | 252 | $88,484 | $229,762 | $83,357 | $32,460 | $8,357 |
Table: Quartile Analysis of the 2026 Magic Millions National Weanling Sale
Showcasing the first foals by young sires
Beyond the broader market signals, Magic Millions also offered another early test for the first foals by Australia’s newest commercial stallions.
Across this sale, there were 19 stallions in the catalogue with progeny from their first crop of weanlings. Of those, six achieved an average price at or above the median price of the whole sale, being $46,000.
Lot 317 - Shinzo x Get Up Girl colt | Image courtesy of Magic Millions
Just like at the earlier Sydney weanling sale, buyers at the 2026 Magic Millions National Weanling Sale went hard for the first foals of G1 Golden Slipper winner Shinzo. Five of his nine weanlings sold for an average of $107,000, well above the sale average. His top priced weanling was Lot 317, Coolmore Stud’s colt from stakes placed winner of two races Get Up Girl (No Nay Never {USA}) who sold to Sneesby Racing for $170,000.
Cylinder sold all three of his weanlings in the catalogue at an average of $105,000, while Ozzmosis came in next with three weanlings sold at an average of $95,000.
| Shinzo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | $535,000 | $107,000 |
| Cylinder | 3 | 3 | $315,000 | $105,000 | ||
| Ozzmosis | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | $285,000 | $95,000 |
| Native Trail (GB) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | $130,000 | $65,000 |
| Lofty Strike | 2 | 2 | $112,000 | $56,000 | ||
| In the Congo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | $100,000 | $50,000 |
Table: First season sires in 2026 with a weanling average above the sale median
Location of buyers
New South Wales buyers did the heavy lifting at this year’s sale.
They purchased 93 weanlings, or 45% of all lots sold, for an aggregate of just over $8 million. They also spent above the overall sale average, paying an average of $86,726.
There was a strong contingent of international interest at the sale in 2026 with 29 lots (14%) bought by overseas buyers.
Local Queensland buyers were bargain hunting, paying an average of $28,875 across 36 lots, while Victorians marginally outspent NSW buyers (by average) spending an average of $87,533 on 30 lots. All four lots heading to Tasmania were purchased by Grenville Stud, who splashed $950,000 on their potential pinhooks.
New Zealand buyers were the highest overseas nation by volume with 18 weanlings purchased in 2026 at an average of $72,583 showing their faith in their own yearling market and local prizemoney.
| NSW | 93 | $8,065,500 | $86,726 |
| QLD | 36 | $1,039,500 | $28,875 |
| VIC | 30 | $2,626,000 | $87,533 |
| NEW ZEALAND | 18 | $1,306,500 | $72,583 |
| WA | 15 | $618,500 | $41,233 |
| CHINA | 6 | $989,500 | $164,917 |
| TAS | 4 | $950,000 | $237,500 |
| HONG KONG | 3 | $261,000 | $87,000 |
| PHILIPPINES | 1 | $2,000 | $2,000 |
| UNITED KINGDOM | 1 | $70,000 | $70,000 |
| SA | 1 | $30,000 | $30,000 |
Table: Buyer location at 2026 Magic Millions National Weanling Sale
